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LOS ANGELES — Most every postseason, a team’s success or failure hinges on the production of its starting pitching. And while this postseason is no different, the World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Yankees presents a stark contrast between two teams with very different rotation strategies and circumstances.
One of the postseason’s nuances when it comes to starting pitching is what a team needs vs. what a team has. In the three-game wild-card round or the five-game Division Series, teams don’t need a full four-man rotation and can get by with three starters. Sometimes, as we saw this postseason with the Tigers, even two can be enough.
But as teams advance into the seven-game league Championship Series and World Series, having a third and fourth starter who can take the ball becomes a huge advantage — especially the longer a series goes. Starting pitchers on short rest seems great when it works, but when it doesn’t, it leaves you wondering what could have been if a team had another arm available to eat innings and allow for regular rest.
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If there is a clear advantage the Yankees have in this matchup, it lies in their starting rotation. New York rolls into Game 1 on Friday with a traditional starting pitching model. Longtime ace Gerrit Cole leads the team’s staff with not only a history of Game 1 starts but also a track record of success in the postseason and on the World Series stage. Having Cole atop the rotation takes a significant amount of pressure off the rest of the Yankees’ arms.
Behind Cole, the Yankees will give the ball to southpaw Carlos Rodón, who, when he’s right, can be as dominant as they come. That means the key and the biggest question for the Yankees will likely be their Game 3 and Game 4 starters, presumably Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil.
While Schmidt has been fine in his two starts for New York (3.86 ERA in 9⅓ IP), Gil was erratic in his first start in nearly a month in the ALCS, surrendering two earned runs in just four innings. But as he showed during the season, when he’s commanding his pitches, there might not be a pitcher in baseball with more electric stuff.
Unlike their opponents from the Bronx, the Dodgers have had to figure out their strategy as they’ve gone along in October. They’ve had to make do in a non-traditional way due to injuries during the regular season to starters Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler have toed the rubber for L.A. this postseason and will each get the ball for the Dodgers at least once in the World Series. All three have had moments of brilliance this October, and all three have had moments they’d like to forget. The Dodgers’ starters each have an ERA over 5.00 this postseason.
The team’s bullpen — a key reason the Dodgers are in this World Series — has acted like the fourth starter in the playoffs. For the Dodgers, “bullpen games” have become a staple of their approach in October. And the strategy, while not foolproof, has been relatively successful. In three “starts” this postseason, the bullpen is 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA. The Dodgers’ offense has also picked up some of the slack in those contests, averaging seven runs scored in bullpen games.
Manager Dave Roberts confirmed Tuesday that the Dodgers will go with a bullpen game in either Game 3 or Game 4 in New York.
The Dodgers and Yankees are evenly matched in so many areas that it’s not hyperbole to say this series will likely come down to whichever rotation pitches better. And while the leash for starting pitching is already short in October, expect both Roberts and Yankees skipper Aaron Boone to have particularly quick triggers should their starters get in trouble.
But of the two teams, it’s the Dodgers who will have to be more mindful of their rotation throughout this series. Only Flaherty has gotten through the fifth inning multiple times this month, and Yamamoto hasn’t gone past 79 pitches in a start since his return from the injured list in September.
If the Dodgers have to dip into their bullpen early in Games 1, 2 or 3, it’ll make it that much more difficult to navigate the Yankees’ lineup in a bullpen game in Game 3 or 4 with no days off in between.
Both of these teams feature offenses that are daunting for starting pitchers, and with both lineups heating up at the perfect time, don’t expect that to change in the Fall Classic. All eyes will be waiting to see which rotation can better withstand the offensive barrage on baseball’s biggest stage.