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If Saturday’s UFC 279 main event turns out to be the final walk to the Octagon for Nate Diaz after 15 unpredictable years, the circumstances surrounding this pay-per-view headliner couldn’t be more bizarre.
On the surface, Diaz’s 170-pound clash with unbeaten rising star Khamzat Chimaev inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is a potential all-action fight between proven warriors that you simply can’t turn away from. UFC certainly knows that, which is likely why the rest of the fight card can be best described as sub-par for the promotion’s typical PPV standards.
What the excitement for the potential of five chaotic rounds (if it even lasts that long) tends to hide, however, are the questions about whether this fight should even be taking place in the first place.
Despite his reputation as someone who “doesn’t give a f—” and will “fight anybody,” as Diaz so eloquently put it during his lone sit-down interview this week with ESPN, the proud native of Stockton, California, is 37 and has just one victory to his name over the last six years. While it is true wins and losses have never told the full story of Diaz’s impact on both the sport and UFC, this weekend’s betting odds paint a particularly grim picture about what is expected.
The 28-year-old Chimaev could’ve just as easily been fighting for the welterweight title this weekend had UFC matchmakers gone a different route. The hype surrounding the native of Chechnya, Russia, has been so huge that the UFC 279 Countdown show even referred to Chimaev as “the hottest prospect UFC has ever seen.”
Chimaev (11-0) enters the Octagon as an overwhelming -1100 betting favorite to the +700 underdog in Diaz (20-13). And while that’s not quite a UFC record for a PPV main event — Ronda Rousey was a -1700 favorite at UFC 190 (Bethe Correia) and Georges St-Pierre was -1300 at UFC 69 (Matt Serra) — it suggests the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
Had Diaz taken the fight because he wanted to, it might be a different story. But despite the UFC’s best effort to promote the fight as Diaz looking to take down yet another hyped name in the same manner he once upset Conor McGregor in 2016, Diaz told ESPN it’s simply untrue.
“They’re acting like I called for this fight, which I didn’t call for and don’t want and didn’t want and still don’t want,” Diaz said. “But, [the] pressure is on him, he better finish me because he’s the next killer in town. This fight isn’t even about [Chimaev] … it’s about ‘making’ this guy. And I’m like, ‘OK, you guys aren’t going to let me go? Because I’m the best fighter here? And you’re not gonna let me go unless it’s off of somebody? I gotta make somebody for you? Well, alright, you’re welcome. Let’s make you. You’re welcome, UFC.”
Granted, any interview involving Diaz, or his older brother and idol Nick, tend to produce sound bites that appear to contradict something said just moments before. The Diaz brothers, one must assume, also can’t be easy to negotiate with considering how loyal both stick to their street taught values and the images they project as anti-heroes who are almost preternaturally at odds with the machine.
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Still, the long history of the Diaz brothers fighting with UFC brass over money and opportunity simply can’t be ignored. Neither can the parallels between Nate accepting this fight largely against his will and Nick doing the same last September (albeit for different reasons) when he snapped a six-year layoff to rematch Robbie Lawler and openly spoke out about feeling like he was forced into it.
In the case of the younger Diaz, who not coincidentally enters the final fight of his current UFC deal, his social media activity dating back to his last fight in April 2021 suggests he has been trying to exit said deal by offering a litany of elite names he was willing to fight only to be denied or ignored by UFC. It’s an accusation that’s believable when one looks at the combat sports landscape outside of UFC, and the fact that Diaz represents the perfect opponent for Jake Paul’s boxing career and the former YouTube star’s focus on targeting older MMA stars.
Did UFC purposely keep Diaz on ice amid Paul’s ongoing public feud with president Dana White? And did it only approve Chimaev as a final opponent assuming the fresh upstart would steal Diaz’s fanbase after demolishing him while soiling his brand on the way out? One doesn’t need a Magic 8 Ball to assume all signs likely point to yes.
During a time when the topic of fighter pay in the UFC simply won’t go away as one fighter after another shares the unfortunate reality of the largely Draconian contracts in which they compete under, Diaz should be seen as a poster child for someone who has endured a constant uphill battle.
After winning Season 5 of “The Ultimate Fighter” in his 2007 UFC debut, Diaz signed a front-loaded and lengthy contract that was anything but indicative of his ability or potential star power. By the time Diaz finally reached the top of the lightweight division for his lone title shot in a 2012 loss to Benson Henderson, it feels like a crime to remember he made a reported purse of just $50,000 despite headlining a nationally televised card (in a title fight, no less) that peaked at nearly 3.5 million viewers.
Diaz’s payouts only spiraled from there despite him remaining a go-to feature fighter for the promotion in a series of primetime cards on Fox. He made just $30,000 (plus $15,000 win bonus) as a headliner against Gray Maynard in 2013, $16,000 in a co-main event against Rafael dos Anjos in 2014 and $40,000 (plus $20,000 win bonus) against Michael Johnson following a year-long layoff in 2015, with the latter producing his infamous “you’ve taken everything I worked for” rant against Conor McGregor in the post-fight interview.
While Diaz would go on to make purses of $500,000 and $2 million (not counting undisclosed PPV bonuses) in splitting a pair of blockbuster bouts with McGregor in 2016, he then inexplicably sat out for three years, essentially wasting his commercial prime while publicly arguing with UFC about the subsequent fighters and purses being offered to him for a return.
Does Diaz and his management team deserve a certain level of blame for agreeing to said contracts and handling his career the way in which they did? It’s a fair question to consider given both Diaz’s mercurial nature and a series of quotes, also taken from the ESPN interview, which once again appear to contradict the entire narrative painting him as a potential victim.
“I’m on Dana White’s side, too,” Diaz said. “It’s all love. I understand business, so it’s all good with me. Me and Dana always got along about everything, too. And I’m not f—ing inking Real Fighting [his new combat sports promotion announced Tuesday] because I’m against anybody. I’m not going anywhere or doing anything. I have no plan for what my next move is. If something happens in this fight, I might just have to re-sign to get a rematch. If I don’t whip this motherf—er ‘s ass right now, then c’mon.
“Regardless of what happens, though — and say I leave, or do whatever — the best fighters are in the UFC and have been for a long time and will be for a long time, I’m sure. [It] doesn’t mean the realest shit is happening in the UFC. But, no matter what I do, I’m gonna be in the UFC.”
Does this mean the odds of Diaz exiting the Octagon on Saturday with a profanity laced rant against White and the UFC, essentially the fever dream fans have coveted most when trying to predict Diaz’s next anti-establishment move, is no longer possible should he pull the upset?
Your guess is as good as mine. The only thing certain about UFC 279’s closing bout is that there has never been a fight with a storyline as unique and weird as this one.