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The 2022 Formula 1 season is here.
The 22-race season begins on Sunday with the Bahrain Grand Prix (11 a.m. ET, ESPN). Max Verstappen defends his controversial title in the No. 1 car for Red Bull Racing as the cars all over the grid are significantly different than they were a season ago. You’ll notice the drastic changes right away as F1 regulations mandated downforce cuts and bigger tires in an effort to promote more passing and limit the effects of dirty air.
Sunday’s race will not feature four-time champion Sebastian Vettel. The Aston Martin driver tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday and will be out this weekend. He’ll be replaced in the car by Aston Martin reserve driver and former F1 stalwart Nico Hulkenberg.
With the new cars and a bunched field at preseason testing, the odds for the weekend are quite different than what you may be used to seeing. Five drivers have odds at +1200 or better to win Sunday’s Grand Prix, and Verstappen is the favorite to win the race at +175.
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Seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton is at +300. If you’re confident that Mercedes was sandbagging during testing, now is the time to jump on Hamilton’s odds to win the race. Hamilton and Mercedes weren’t too keen on their car’s speed after testing, but opponents are used to seeing Mercedes play down its chances before a season before. After all, Mercedes is the eight-time defending constructor’s champions.
Betting this weekend is going to be a bit like throwing darts. We’re not all that confident. Here are a few of our shaky picks from the odds available at BetMGM.
Max Verstappen to win Free Practice 1 (+160)
If Mercedes doesn’t show up with blinding speed for Friday’s first practice, Verstappen should take it. Look out for the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, however. They were fast during testing.
Free Practice 1 margin to be between 0.101-0.250 seconds (+175)
Things should get closer as the season goes on but we could see whoever wins FP1 putting down a blistering qualifying lap while most of the field focuses on race setup and getting comfortable in its new cars.
Lewis Hamilton to finish in the top three (-135)
There were shorter odds on a Hamilton win a season ago. It will be a big surprise if he doesn’t finish on the podium.
Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 10 (-140)
We’re looking at the value here. Gasly has the eighth-best odds to finish in the top six at +175 while he has the 10th-best odds to finish in the top 10. We might as well take that latter bet.
Hamilton and Verstappen to finish 1-2 in any order (+300)
Why not make our last bet a flier on beginning 2022 with a continuation of the theme from 2021?
