First-round preview: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury

The No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx’s quest for a fifth WNBA championship begins this Sunday, Sept. 22, when they’ll meet the No. 7-seed Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs. The best-of-three series tips-off with two games in Minnesota and will then shift to Phoenix for a third game, if necessary.

The 2024 regular season was inarguably a successful one for Minnesota. The Lynx went 30-10 and finished second overall in the WNBA standings, winning 75 percent of their games for the first time since the glory days of the franchise and significantly exceeding most preseason expectations. Phoenix, meanwhile, struggled with consistency for much of 2024, hovering around .500 for most of the season and ultimately finishing with a 19-21 record. This was still plenty good enough to clinch the Mercury a playoff spot, though, as they finished four games ahead of the No. 8-seed Atlanta Dream and had more or less been operating as if they were a championship contender.

The last time the Lynx faced the Mercury in the playoffs was during the “bubble” season in 2020, and needless to say a lot has changed since then. Here’s how the two teams stack up and what we’ll be watching for when they take the court.

How the Lynx and Mercury match up

To say the Lynx are an unselfish team would be selling them short. Ball movement played a huge part in Minnesota’s regular-season success, and the Lynx actually set a WNBA record for regular-season assist rate, assisting on 76.43 percent of their made baskets (Across the Timeline). What the Lynx lack in typical downhill scoring and drive-and-kick playmaking, they more than make up for in collective passing and a steadfast adherence to head coach Cheryl Reeve’s offensive system, one that emphasizes finding mismatches and efficient spot-up opportunities.

That’s not to say that Minnesota is short of standout talent. Forward Napheesa Collier has been one of the WNBA’s most productive players for years now, and she raised her game yet another level in 2024, averaging 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game to go along with 1.9 steals and 1.4 blocks. Collier’s efficiency with the basketball and ability to defend multiple positions makes her one of the league’s few players who plays at a star level on both ends of the court, and when she’s paired with Alanna Smith, the duo forms perhaps the best defensive playmaking frontcourt in the WNBA.

They’ll have their hands full with Phoenix center Brittney Griner, though. At 6-foot-9, Griner can get her shot off against any defender, and her ever-evolving offensive game gives the Mercury a luxury no other WNBA team has: a true low-post offensive hub that Phoenix can play through for the entirety of the time she’s on the floor, forcing opponents to choose between playing straight-up or sending help.

In an effort to diversify their offensive approach, the Mercury traded for über-athletic wing Kahleah Copper and signed veteran point guard Natasha Cloud this past offseason. They also hired Nate Tibbetts as their head coach; the former Orlando Magic and Portland Trail Blazers assistant promised to bring NBA offensive concepts to Phoenix’s roster. While the Mercury still play through Griner whenever possible—46.1 percent of her offensive possessions come via post-ups, by far the highest frequency of any WNBA player (Synergy Sports)—Cloud and Copper give Phoenix threats off the dribble that the team simply didn’t have before.

Even so, the Mercury didn’t fare well against the Lynx in the regular season. Minnesota won three of four games against Phoenix, outscoring the Mercury by 12.3 points per game while holding Phoenix to an average of 72 points.

Granted, the Lynx finished the regular season with the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA (94.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), but it points to the importance of Phoenix’s top players all clicking at the same time. The Mercury shot 27.1 percent on 3-pointers in their three regular-season losses to Minnesota, so they’ll obviously need to make more shots to have a chance; that includes Diana Taurasi, who is seemingly ageless athletically but has had an up-and-down season shooting the basketball. The jump shots of Cloud and Sophie Cunningham (37.8 percent on 4.5 3-point attempts per game) will also be factors.

For Minnesota, don’t expect any big schematic changes. The guard play of Courtney Williams (11.1 points and 5.5 assists per game) and Kayla McBride (15 points per game; 40.7 percent on 6.6 3-point attempts) has been steady all season, while players like Bridget Carleton (44.4 percent on 3-pointers) and Cecilia Zandalasini (44.3 percent) ensure that the Lynx will be able to space the floor for a full 40 minutes and give Collier room to operate. While Griner’s presence will surely force the Lynx to mix up their defensive coverages—something that Reeve is well-experienced with, having coached against the star center since her rookie season in 2013—she won’t be able to beat Minnesota alone. Phoenix will need a well-balanced and efficient offensive performance in order to hang against the favored Lynx.

No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx (30-10) vs. No. 7 seed Phoenix Mercury (19-21)

Game 1: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx

When: Sunday, Sept. 22 at 5 p.m. ET

Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

How to watch: ESPN

Game 2: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx

When: Wednesday, Sept. 25 at 9:30 p.m. ET

Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

How to watch: ESPN

Game 3 (if necessary): Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury

When: Friday, Sept. 27 (time TBD)

Where: Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ

How to watch: ESPN2