Fantasy Projections: Maximizing your Week 5

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What we know entering Week 5 of CFL Fantasy football is that we don’t know much. The early trends have indicated more passing, and while scoring appears to be perking up, the amount of consistent quarterback play feels thin. However, the return of Ottawa’s Jeremiah Masoli should help matters as we return to normal with a four-game slate.

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Quarterbacks

1 .Zach Collaros, Winnipeg, $15,000 Salary (17.9 Projected Fantasy Points): He’s here almost by default. Collaros has managed just 18.4 combined FP the past two games, yet he feels way overdue to revive the Bombers’ passing game.

2. Vernon Adams Jr., BC, $12,500 Salary (12.2): Adams isn’t going to throw six picks again, but he’s a good bet to throw the ball 35-plus times now that he’s got Dominique Rhymes and Keon Hatcher back into the lineup. Don’t be shocked if Adams gives you at least 22 FP this week.

3. Jeremiah Masoli, Ottawa, $13,000 Salary (4.3): Watch how the value of the REDBLACKS’ receiving corps zooms upward now that Masoli is back. He’ll crush his middling projection at the expense of a Ticats’ defence that allows a staggering 128.4 opponents pass efficiency.

4. Trevor Harris, Saskatchewan, $15,000 Salary (16.1): There’s every reason to be excited at the prospects of the Riders’ passing game strafing the Elks all Thursday evening, yet we must temper expectations considering how much success awaits Saskatchewan’s ground game against the league’s worst run defence.

5. Jake Maier, Calgary, $15,000 Salary (12.7): Winnipeg allows 280 passing yards per game and while the Stampeders’ receiving corps is banged up, the game flow might suggest that Maier will have to press a Bombers’ pass D that is seventh in opponents pass efficiency. There is some sleeper potential lying here.

6. Cody Fajardo, Montreal, $15,000 Salary (15.6): The league’s best deep ball passer falls here mostly because he’s led the Alouettes to just four majors on 40 drives this season. The big plays certainly help the fantasy numbers but when the touchdowns are few and far between, it becomes hard to put trust in Fajardo.

Running Backs

1. Jamal Morrow, Saskatchewan, $11,400 Salary (13.4): By far the best play of the week at any position, Morrow should feast against Edmonton and its run defence. The Elks are giving up nearly 165 yards per game on the ground and if Morrow gets at least 17-plus touches from scrimmage, he’ll carry plenty of fantasy teams this week.

2. Brady Oliveira, Winnipeg, $15,000 Salary (9.5): The big sledgehammer leads the league in rushing and faces a generous defence in Calgary, which allows 5.3 yards per carry. Oliveira has the most carries in the CFL and will be on his way to another solid outing so long as he continues to be fed.

Has De’Montre Tuggle emerged as the REDBLACKS’ top run option? (The Canadian Press)

3. De’Montre Tuggle, Ottawa, $6,200 Salary (7.6): Dare we say it? Is Tuggle finally the lead back the REDBLACKS have been missing? Following a breakout effort in Week 4, Tuggle is a hot value play going against a Ticats’ defence that’s allowed a league-high six rushing majors.

4 .Dedrick Mills, Calgary, $11,700 Salary (12.8): Mills (13.5) is averaging just above his projection. As the key piece of the Stampeders’ offence, Mills will be utilized as a runner and receiver since the Winnipeg defence will be locked in on him. Despite the focus he’ll face, Mills should be able to at least crack his Week 5 projection.

5. William Stanback, Montreal, $14,500 Salary (9.3): We’re still waiting for the breakout moment for Stanback, who had just 5.8 fantasy points in Week 4 and is averaging just 4.7 yards per carry. Facing BC’s defence is not going to help matters when it comes to hoping Stanback can reassert himself as one of the league’s best backs.

6. James Butler, Hamilton, $15,000 Salary (14.8): Butler has the best projection among Week 5 backs. However, he’s playing on an offence that is last in the league with 58.8 yards per game on the ground and has just four offensive majors. He’s carrying too big a load right now to merit serious fantasy consideration.

7. Kevin Brown, Edmonton, $15,000 Salary (9.5): It’s an odd-numbered week, so perhaps Brown, who scored 10.1 FP in Week 1 and 11.3 FP in Week 3, might find himself in the unique position of actually getting more than 7-9 touches.

8. Taquan Mizzell, BC, $13,500 Salary (6.5): The Lions will have to make sure Mizzell gets more than the nine touches he had in Week 4 to help him stop trending south. He’s managed just 12.5 combined fantasy points the last two weeks, and with the BC receiving corps nearly at full strength, the concern here is that Mizzell gets lost in the undertow.

Receivers

1. Dominique Rhymes, BC, $15,000 Salary (18.3): Rhymes returned to the lineup and caught a pair of touchdowns in the loss to Toronto, giving him 21.5 FP in the process. He’s averaging 22.6 FP per game and thrives off the deep ball, averaging a wicked good 21.3 depth yards per target.

2. Austin Mack, Montreal, $8,400 Salary (11.1): He’s still a steal going into Week 5. Mack has a CFL-best five catches of over 30 yards and has produced at least 16 FP in each of his first three games.

3. Dalton Schoen, Winnipeg, $15,000 Salary (16.4): Even with Zach Collaros in a mini-funk, Schoen remains productive, scoring 19.6 FP in the Week 4 win over Montreal. As good as his numbers look right now, Schoen has yet to really hit his stride.

4. Keon Hatcher, BC, $10,500 Salary (15.7): The 3.2 per cent of fantasy users who bought into Hatcher looking like Hatcher were rewarded with 24.4 FP in his 2023 debut. The rapport between him and Vernon Adams Jr. (eight catches on 10 targets) looked scary good at times on Monday.

5. Tevin Jones, Saskatchewan, $11,400 Salary (11.3): He’s truly found a home in Saskatchewan after years of being an NFL journeyman. Jones has a stellar 112.4 efficiency rate and most of all, has the trust of Trevor Harris, which is a very good trait to have if you’re a receiver.

6. Tim White, Hamilton, $15,000 Salary (15.6): The Tiger-Cats are last in the league in rushing, so it stands to reason pivot Matthew Shiltz is going to become pass happy. That’s very good news for White, who tallied 21.3 FP in Week 3 as he and Shiltz continue to jell as a pass-catch combo.

7. Duke Williams, Hamilton, $13,900 Salary (11.8): If we are indeed about to watch the emergence of Air Shiltz, count on Williams being a very popular destination for his flights. Williams is fifth in the league with 260 receiving yards despite a tepid 40.4 efficiency rate. Translation: there is plenty of room for improvement in Williams’ stock.

8. Kaion Julien-Grant, Montreal, $10,300 Salary (11.3): He and Austin Mack are making Alouettes fans forget about Eugene Lewis. KJG always had the talent and now that he’s become a featured part of the Montreal offence, he’s looking a lot like a possible East Division All-Star.

9. Tre Odoms-Dukes, Calgary, $8,600 Salary (6.6): With Malik Henry done for the season and Reggie Begelton less than 100 per cent, the opportunity for Odoms-Dukes to assert his monster potential has arrived. He’s scored at least 10.3 FP in each of the Stamps’ first three games and should be good for better numbers now that a bulk of the target share is coming his direction.

10. Shawn Bane, Jr., Saskatchewan, $11,800 (6.6): Another of the early season revelations at the position, the former Stampeder is averaging 13.8 FP per game while also taking his fantasy salary into the high rent district.

11. Nic Demski, Winnipeg, $15,000 (13.7): The new father (Congrats, Nic) returns to the lineup in time to do what he tends to do best: torture the Stampeders secondary.

12. Justin Hardy, Ottawa, $12,100 Salary (9.4): Someone will benefit from the presence of Jeremiah Masoli. Why not Hardy, who leads the team with 23 targets, yet has a modest 7.2 depth yards per target that should climb now that the offence finally has its field general back?

Defences

The Riders’ defence will look to have a big night against the Elks on Thursday (Dave Chidley/CFL.ca)

1. Saskatchewan, $8,300 Salary (8.3): There are better defences, but there’s only one facing the Elks’ offence this week. Guess who?

2. BC, $10,500 Salary (8.2): Let’s all forget about Week 4 (we’re sure the Lions would appreciate that). They’re still atop the league in a number of categories, notably a league-low 241 yards allowed per game. The Als will present a challenge, but look for them to get back into the groove.

3. Ottawa, $10,800 Salary (7.6): The REDBLACKS put up a season-best 14 fantasy points in the win over Edmonton and face an equally challenged offence in Hamilton.

4. Winnipeg, $10,200 Salary (8.1): After two sluggish weeks that left some questioning whether the Bombers have slipped, along comes a 19 FP doozy against the Als to remind us why they’re still a tough out.

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