NFBC Main Event Tracker: Week 5 review

Main Event Tracker: Week 5 review

We’re now more than a full month into the 2024 MLB season and things are starting to take shape. With that, we’re going to make a change with how we’re tracking our weekly targets both on offense and on the pitching side of things.

We entered the season using the top 90th percentile targets for our stats based on the standings of last season’s Main Event. Now that we’re 4.5 weeks into the new season, I think that’s a strong enough sample to switch to start using actual data for my targets – which I’ll now update weekly based on where things actually are. For this week though, I’ll leave in the old targets as well for reference so we can see the differences.

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Hitter Review

Fresh off of our worst hitting week of the season – one in which we hit a total of just two home runs – we desperately needed to get back on track this week. Fortunately, that’s exactly what wound up happening.

In what turned out to be a total team effort, we wound up blasting 13 home runs for the week – with two each from Willson Contreras, Jose Ramirez, Tyler O’Neill and Josh Rojas leading the way.

Ramirez played like the superstar that we need him to be – hitting .348 with four runs scored, two homers, six RBI and three stolen bases. William Contreras was a monster yet again, with eight runs scored to pace the squad plus a homer and a steal.

Mark Canha also hit a pair of home runs – both of them on our bench over the first half of the week where we felt like we had better options to play in the outfield. That’s going to leave a mark. One of those options was Adam Duvall who we picked up on the cheap last week to play specifically against a bunch of left-handers against the Marlins thinking that we’d get a home run out of the deal. We did get that long ball that we were hoping for, but Canha’s monster first half would have played better.

Along with Duvall, William Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt, Randy Arozarena and Jurickson Profar added home runs to the total. Goldschmidt’s bat showed signs of life for the first time all season really – hitting .304 with six runs scored a homer and a stolen base on the week. Arozarena on the other hand, continues to look absolutely lost at the plate. He homered and drove in three runs but did so while hitting just .136 and is hitting an abysmal .152/.226/.257 on the season.

We also left a home run on the bench over the weekend by Max Kepler. Last week’s major free agent acquisition hit .462 (6-for-13) with a pair of runs scored and five RBI over the first half of the week but was set to square off against two left-handers over the weekend and wasn’t in the Twins’ lineup on Friday. That made it an easy call to sit him (he did sit on Sunday as well). It just so happened that he went deep as the Twins throttled the Angels on Saturday. Sucks to miss out on it, but nice to see him crushing the ball in his return from the IL.

We also left a home run and a stolen base on the bench in Luis Rengifo. The way the lineups played out to start the week we wound up with Javier Baez in that spot – and he swiped a base as well – but the Rengifo homer over the weekend would have helped.

Alright, let’s examine how we’re doing against our updated targets. I had really been hoping that switching to the actuals would lower the weekly targets a bit, but they went in the opposite direction instead for the most part. Instead of looking for 42.7 runs per week now, we’re looking for 44. The RBI number jumped from 41.5 to 42.7. Stolen bases took a big leap, from 7.7 to 8.7. Batting average jumped a couple of points from .263 to .265. The only place where we gained any relief is in the home run department, falling from 12.1 to 11.6.

When looking at how we’re doing on the season against the new numbers, the only one that we are beating is runs scored – and that’s only by two runs. We’re chasing nine homers, 28 RBI, three stolen bases and quite a bit of batting average. It’s going to be a continuous battle to try to get back in play here.

Pitching Review

While things were improved nearly across the board on the hitting side from last week, the pitching side had some disappointment.

At a glance, the ratios were tremendous – posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 51 1/3 innings is fantastic. No worries there. Getting 50 strikeouts during that stretch is a bit rough, but still nothing to be too concerned about. The issue once again, was the lack of victories.

Our week started out with three pitchers going on Tuesday, hopeful to make up ground in the wins department. Michael Wacha struggled and was never going to get there. Ryan Pepiot pitched well, but his bullpen blew his win as Riley Greene crushed a game-tying homer in the eighth inning. Erick Fedde threw an absolute gem in his first start of the week – piling up 11 strikeouts over six innings of one-run ball. Like Pepiot though, his bullpen blew his lead – this time it was Steven Wilson blowing a save in the ninth inning.

Not a good start, but the ratios were solid and the strikeouts were there, we’d make up ground later in the week, right? On Thursday, Justin Verlander pitched well, but pitch count got to him and he was pulled from the game in the fifth inning before he could qualify for a win.

Corbin Burnes was terrific again on Friday night, but Craig Kimbrel imploded in the ninth inning of that one and cost him his hard-earned victory. This was starting to get mighty frustrating. Kutter Crawford also went on Friday and turned in his worst start of the season, no victory there either.

Wacha struggled in his second start of the week, falling to the Tigers on Sunday. That left us with zero wins heading into our final start of the week. Fortunately, Fedde came through in a major way – delivering another magnificent performance with nine strikeouts over 8 1/3 innings of two-run baseball against the Rays, and the White Sox bullpen was able to hang on for him this time.

Looking at the bullpen, Alexis Diaz was awesome and converted both of his save chances. Josh Hader didn’t see a save chance – and didn’t even pitch until working a scoreless inning against the Rockies on Sunday. The interesting one, is that Trevor Megill pitched twice. The first time, he came on and faced the heart of the order in the eighth inning while Joel Payamps closed it out for the Brewers. The next night, Megill tackled the heart of the order in the ninth inning and earned his first career save. Unfortunately, they went the rest of the week without a lead to protect late in the game, so we couldn’t get any further clarification on roles there. It’s possible that Megill is the new leader in the pack for saves there, which would make him a tremendous addition to the squad. Only time will tell.

Taking a look at our new targets, they moved against us like they did on the hitting side. Instead of looking for 55.9 strikeouts a week now, we’re targeting 59.1. Our wins target went up another 0.5 wins to 4.2. Saves jumped up from 3.1 to 3.8 and the ratios came way down and put us into a danger zone. Not great, but they should start to move back the other way as the season progresses.

The only season-long target that we’re beating at the moment is strikeouts, and we only have a cushion of two there. We’re chasing three wins, eight saves and quite a bit in both ratio categories.

FAAB Plan

Yikes. Once again, I was anticipating coming into this week with the idea of not spending very much, upgrading the team where I can and conserving FAAB. Then every Sunday, without fail, I find players that I’m willing to spend on.

Let’s start out as always by looking at our drops – or potential drops. The easiest one is Wade Miley, who landed on the injured list and will miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. We’re ready to throw in the towel on Edward Olivares and chalk him up as a loss. While the underlying metrics and is on-field performance have been great, he’s simply not playing enough to be relevant for fantasy purposes. Adam Duvall also looks like an easy drop, as we picked him up just to stream him last week. That’s three easy ones.

Devin Williams is trickier. We added him on the cheap last week thinking that he could wind up being a major factor in the second half, but if we decide that saves aren’t as big of a problem as they appear, perhaps he could be swapped out for someone that can help now. Or even swapped out now for someone who can provide saves now. Justin Lawrence is closing for the Rockies and nabbed his first two saves this week, and he’s available to bid on in our league – and 45% of all Main Event leagues this week. He’s probably worth a small bid, perhaps with Williams as the drop.

In terms of pitching options available to replace Miley, there’s not a whole lot out there they we’re interested in. Bailey Falter has been dealing for the Pirates and lines up for a nice double next week (at Athletics, vs. Rockies). He’s definitely the top target on the pitching side. Kyle Gibson could be a return addition to the squad. He lines up for a nice single against the Tigers in the coming week and then will double the following week. Simeon Woods-Richardson draws another start against the suddenly hot White Sox and is worth a couple of bucks probably. After that, it gets sketchy. Quinn Priester has pitched pretty well in his limited action and he draws a start against the Athletics in Oakland. Maybe a speculative save addition in Garrett Cleavinger? Reed Garrett as a fireman who is piling up strikeouts? The pickings are slim.

Now, to the offense. We’re still struggling week-to-week with finding viable plays at middle and corner infield, as well as utility. We have plenty of outfielders, so preferably if we’re adding two bats we want at least one of them to have eligibility elsewhere. My top target, surprisingly, is Jo Adell. Not only does his new swing look terrific, but the results have been there as well – hitting .327/.382/.592 with three homers, 10 RBI and five stolen bases in only 55 plate appearances. Most importantly though, he has been playing – starting each of the Angels’ last six contests. Is this the breakout we have all been waiting for? How much is too much to pay to get him? We’ll find out.

After that, another popular post-post-hype sleeper is Nick Senzel, who has gone wild and crushed five home runs in his last five games – including a pair on Sunday afternoon. Unlike Adell, he qualifies at third base and in the outfield, added eligibility that would be quite helpful. Those look like the top two hitting targets on my board, but there are plenty of other interesting names. Mike Tauchman has been hitting atop the Cubs’ lineup on a daily basis with Cody Bellinger sidelined and the results have been fantastic. Joey Meneses has done nothing but hit since we dropped him, and he added 1B to his eligibility on Sunday which is a major upgrade. Matt Mervis is up and playing against right-handers for the Cubs and we still need power. Tyler Nevin is playing everyday and has 3B/OF for the A’s. Joey Ortiz has 2B/3B and is somewhat intriguing. Will Brennan, Jose Siri, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Andrew Benintendi, Nolan Schanuel, Trey Lipscomb could all be viable. Miguel Rojas gets a couple of left-handers next week and could be worth a buck or two as a streamer.

Let’s hope for the best.

FAAB Review

Well, whether it’s the right move or not remains to be seen, but the bid on Jo Adell was a good one. We snagged our top offensive target $73 to $68 with Duvall as the drop.

The top overall bid for the league on the week went to Justin Lawrence for $138 ($17). While we wound up with the runner-up bid there, it wasn’t even in the ballpark of what was needed, which is fine.

We also ended up with a runner-up bid on Nick Senzel, losing out $38 to $27. Same goes for Mike Tauchman $24 ($13) and our top pitching target Bailey Falter $17 ($16). The Falter one hurts the most, as I really liked his two-step for the upcoming week.

We weren’t even the runner-up bids on Jose Siri ($16), Simeon Woods-Richardson $32 ($24) or Tyler Nevin $12 ($10) though we did have bids in on each of them.

The second and third winning bids both wound up being return members of the squad – as both Kyle Gibson and Joey Meneses were on the initial roster that we drafted. Gibson ($6 to $2) returns for a strong single against the Tigers and then sets up for a decent double the following week. Meneses, as alluded to above, has been swinging a hot bat, the Nationals get seven games next week and most importantly he has now picked up 1B eligibility, giving us another option at CI.

Taking a quick glance at the drops for the week, here’s who stands out as potentially interesting to me: Jordan Walker, Jose Miranda and Parker Meadows.

Our FAAB budget overall is in a tough spot compared to where we want it to be. We only have $678 remaining out of our initial $1000 budget. Only four teams in our league have spent more.

Looking Ahead

Our roster is still structured in a way that we don’t have many decisions to make on the pitching side. We’re starting Burnes, Crawford, Pepiot, Verlander, Fedde and the two locked in closers every week right now. That covers seven spots. It makes sense to roll out Megill for another week to see if he’s actually the guy there – plus we don’t have any alternative options. That brings the final spot down to Kyle Gibson against the Tigers in Detroit or Wacha against the Rangers. Gibson has been better recently and draws the better matchup, seems like the easy play here. No decisions to make unless we run into an IL situation like we had last week with Miley.

On the hitting side, things get a bit more interesting, and with extra options we can start really tinkering with some players who haven’t been performing.

There’s nothing to do at the catcher position, as both Contreras brothers have been awesome and we don’t have an alternative.

Goldschmidt finally put together a strong week at the plate, so there’s no reason to shy away from him next week. Ezequiel Tovar had a bit of a down week, but he’s been great overall this season and remains our best option at shortstop.

Jose Ramirez is coming off of one of the best all-around weeks that we have had all season and he’s an absolute stud, he doesn’t come out of the lineup.

Tyler O’Neill has earned the right to be in the lineup every week as well, as he’s carrying the team in the power department. Jarren Duran had a down week, but he has been good enough to earn a spot as well, provided he’s in the lineup.

That leaves us with quite a bit more wiggle room than we’re used to discussing here. I didn’t include Jorge Polanco as a must-start, coming off another miserable week where he hit just .118 with a run scored and a stolen base. I also didn’t pencil in Arozarena after another debacle and his abysmal production throughout the season.

That leaves us with seven spots out of 13 that we still have to fill. Let’s dig in.

At second base, we have Polanco and Josh Rojas each with three against the Braves (Fried, Lopez, Sale). Rengifo also qualifies at second base and gets three against the Phillies (Sanchez, Wheeler and Nola). None of the options qualify as great, and it’s possible that Rojas could sit both games against the left-handers. We’ll wait and see on lineups, but maybe leaning toward Rengifo here?

While we’re tackling second base, let’s look at middle infield as well. We have whichever two options from above that we don’t utilize at second base, plus Javier Baez who gets three at home against the Cardinals (Matz, Gibson, Mikolas). He has actually been better at the plate over the past week and a half and should play in all three of those games. There are worlds where I could see using both Rengifo and Baez over Polanco here.

At corner infield, we welcome back Joey Meneses who gets four games, two of them against left-handers. Rojas is the only other option at the moment, so this seems like an easy choice. Also of note, Mark Canha started at first base for the Tigers on Sunday – giving him five games played at the position this season. He’s halfway to gaining some very valuable eligibility.

That now leaves us with four spots to fill from the remaining scrub infielders, or our plethora of outfielders.

Jake Fraley is finally back from his lengthy absence due to illness and gets at least two right-handers, possibly three in three games against the Padres. He’s probably in. Mark Canha keeps blowing up when he’s on our bench and doesn’t do much when he’s in the lineup. What he does do though, is play most days and hit near the top of the Tigers’ lineup. He gets three average starters against the Cardinals and could be worthy of a spot. The same can be said for Jurickson Profar, who gets three at home against the Reds (Lodolo, Martinez and Ashcraft).

Jarred Kelenic rarely seems like a great play, but he’s finally lined up to see three right-handers, and he gets to do so in a revenge matchup against the Mariners. They aren’t easy matchups (Miller, Castillo, Hancock), but you have to think with the added motivation that Kelenic swats his first dinger as a member of the Braves this week.

Arozarena gets three right-handers against the Brewers in Milwaukee in Bryse Wilson, Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea. As bad as he has been this season, his numbers against right-handed pitching are worse – .149/.213/.243 with a 24/6 K/BB ratio in 80 plate appearances. Maybe he needs to be benched to teach him a lesson and hopefully get his bat going.

We made the big move to add Jo Adell, so if he’s in the lineup on Monday, he probably has to play with his three games against the Phillies. Max Kepler was our big addition last FAAB run and he was outstanding last week. He gets one left-hander in his three games against the White Sox – but then gets two weak right-handers.

As of now, I think it’s Fraley, Adell and Kelenic for three of the four spots, with Kepler, Profar or Canha fighting for the final spot. A lot will come down to who is actually in the lineup on Monday/Tuesday.

Where we Stand

We entered play on Monday with just 92 league points. That had us in fourth place in our 15-team league, 20 back of first, 9.5 back of second and 6.5 behind third. After a relatively strong week across the board (except for wins), we moved back up to 102.5 league points and second place in our league. We’re still nine points behind the first place team and have just a one-point advantage on third place – but it’s a much stronger position to be in than what we were looking at last week.

Over the week we climbed back up from 261st place to 126th place out of 855 teams in the overall competition.

Now it’s time to start stringing together strong weeks. We’re going to see steps forward in the league and the overall by the time that I report back to you next week. Onward and upward. Let’s get it.

As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my poor decision making – anything. Those that have reached out so far, it has been very appreciated. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.