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TORONTO — What’s happening on the field is unsurprisingly reflected in the CFL Simulation.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers secured themselves a home playoff game last week, topping the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to push their winning streak to eight games. Everything feels possible for this Bombers team right now. The simulation has them as heavy favourites to clinch the West Division and to appear in and to win the 111th Grey Cup (a 78.34 per cent chance of lifting the trophy on Nov. 17).
The Bombers aren’t the only team on a run right now — although their win over the Ticats extinguished Hamilton’s four-game win streak. The Saskatchewan Roughriders have won three straight, but their chances of winning the Grey Cup went down this week, dropping by three per cent. That’s because of the Bombers’ dominance eating up the majority of the probability pie.
Fret not, Riders fans. The team is headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and the Simulation does see the green team hosting a home playoff game. They can take a step toward that on Thanksgiving Weekend presented by Purolator when they host the BC Lions on Saturday night.
Out East, the Simulation is still high on the Argos, even with the Ottawa REDBLACKS favoured to get the home playoff game in the Eastern Semi-Final. The Argos are still more likely in the Simulation’s digital gaze to make it to the Grey Cup game than the REDBLACKS are.
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND PRESENTED BY PUROLATOR
» 111th Grey Cup Playoff Scenarios: REDBLACKS, Riders, Lions, playoff-bound
» MMQB: What are the Elks and Stamps next steps?
» Landry’s 5 takeaways from Week 18
» Sign up and watch CFL games on CFL+ in the U.S. and Internationally
Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see where your team stands as we head into Week 19.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (projected 2024 record) | Projection |
| Montreal (12-5-1) | C |
| Winnipeg (12-6) | C |
| Saskatchewan (10-7-1) | C |
| BC (9-9) | C |
| Ottawa (9-8-1) | C |
| Toronto (9-9) | 95.96% |
| Hamilton (7-11) | 4.04% |
| Edmonton (6-12) | E |
| Calgary (5-12-1) | E |
| ODDS TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | C |
| Winnipeg | C |
| Saskatchewan | 84.86% |
| Ottawa | 55.03% |
| Toronto | 44.97% |
| BC | 15.14% |
| Hamilton | E |
| Edmonton | E |
| Calgary | E |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | C |
| Ottawa | E |
| Toronto | E |
| Hamilton | E |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 98.23% |
| Saskatchewan | 1.77% |
| BC | E |
| Edmonton | E |
| Calgary | E |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 87.67% |
| Montreal | 72.60% |
| Toronto | 19.00% |
| Saskatchewan | 10.28% |
| Ottawa | 7.90% |
| BC | 2.05% |
| Hamilton | 0.50% |
| Edmonton | E |
| Calgary | E |
| ODDS TO WIN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 78.34% |
| Montreal | 9.56% |
| Saskatchewan | 7.41% |
| Toronto | 2.73% |
| BC | 1.30% |
| Ottawa | 0.61% |
| Hamilton | 0.05% |
| Edmonton | E |
| Calgary | E |
| MOST LIKELY 111TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 63.65% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 16.64% |
| Saskatchewan-Montreal | 7.46% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 6.95% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 1.99% |