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LAS VEGAS — It’s rare that a favorite in a UFC main event is better than a 5-1 favorite, and it’s especially rare when the opponent is ranked in the Top 5 of their division, as Thiago Santos is at light heavyweight.
But that just shows the respect that bookmakers and bettors have for No. 6 Magomed Ankalaev, who is a -650 favorite at BetMGM. Santos, who put up a great battle against then-champion Jon Jones in a 2019 title fight, is +450.
You aren’t going to make a living laying -650. If you bet six times on fighters who are -650 favorites and they win five, you’re hitting 83.3 percent of your bets. Yet, after going 5-1, you’d be in the hole $150.
Ankalaev should win this fight, but that’s different than saying he will win it. So we will pass on laying -650 on him to win.
The play here is Ankalaev by decision. As his competition has improved, he’s gone to decision in his last two bouts, wins over Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir. Santos has been finished six times in his 31 pro fights, so there is a history of it.
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This, though, is a huge spot for Santos, whose win over Johnny Walker in October ended a three-fight losing streak. Another loss, making it four losses in his last five, would be devastating to him and would all but end his title dreams.
He’s 38 and on the back nine of a solid career, but he’s not what he was even two or three years ago. Still, he’s a talented guy who is in good condition and so he figures to be able to make it to the finish line.
Ankalaev is only +125 to win by KO and is +130 to win by decision. He’s +800 to win by submission.
I could easily justify a wager on Ankalaev by KO, because he’s coming into his prime, is one of the best strikers in the division and is fighting an older opponent who has been knocked out by strikes.
The problem going with Ankalaev by KO is that you have to have a specific type of victory, and you get better odds by taking him by decision rather than KO. If Ankalaev were reversed, and was +130 by KO and +125 by decision, I’d go with him by KO.
But I’ll take that extra money I get by going for him by decision.
Other bets for UFC Vegas 50
• I will take Bruno Silva at +155 to win over Alex Pereira, who is -190, in what should be a fantastic fight. BetMGM has a prop asking how the fight will finish. KO is -550, submission is +800 and decision is +350. I like the fight to end by KO, though I wouldn’t lay -550 even though that gives me both guys. But I will play another unit on Silva by KO at +225.
• I’ll take AJ Fletcher at +160 to win over Matthew Semelsberger.
• I will take +200 and bet that the Drew Dober-Terence McKinney fight does go the distance.