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The Washington Commanders will enter Thursday Night Football attempting to stop a two-game losing skid. Washington opened the 2023 season with back-to-back wins before dropping back-to-back games to fall to 2-2. The Commanders will host the Chicago Bears at FedEx Field for a Week 5 showdown between NFC teams. Chicago is 0-4 overall, including a 31-28 loss to Denver in Week 4, and 0-2 on the road this season.
Kickoff from FedExField in Landover, Md. is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Washington is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Commanders odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any Commanders vs. Bears picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Bears and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Commanders:
- Bears vs. Commanders spread: Washington -6.5
- Bears vs. Commanders over/under: 44.5 points
- Bears vs. Commanders money line: Washington -300, Chicago +239
- WAS: Commanders are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with Chicago
- CHI: Bears are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 overall games
- Bears vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Commanders can cover
Washington’s defense has been opportunistic this season. The Commanders have five takeaways in four games and are No. 6 in the NFL in allowing a touchdown on only 41.7% of red zone trips. Washington is also facing a Bears offense that is producing fewer than 19 points per game and turning the ball over on 19.5% of offensive possessions. That amounts to eight giveaways in four games.
Washington also stands to benefit from the struggling Bears defense. Opponents have scored at least 25 points in 14 straight games against Chicago, the longest streak in NFL history. The Bears rank No. 27 or worse in scoring defense, total defense, yards per play allowed, turnovers created, passing touchdowns allowed, net yards allowed per pass attempt, third down defense, and red zone efficiency allowed. Washington is firmly in the top 10 in yards per carry (4.6) on offense and averaging 22.0 first downs per contest. See which team to pick here.
Why the Bears can cover
Chicago was on its way to its first victory since Week 7 of the 2022 campaign last Sunday after it possessed a 28-7 lead over the Broncos late in the third quarter before collapsing. The Bears outgained Denver 471-311 overall and 171-97 on the ground while having a 26-17 advantage in first downs. Khalil Herbert recorded his third career 100-yard rushing performance and first since Week 3 of last season, gaining 103 yards on 18 carries, and also hauled in a touchdown pass.
Justin Fields came up with a herculean effort against the Broncos, atoning for an outing against Kansas City the previous week in which he threw for only 99 yards. The 24-year-old quarterback completed his first 16 pass attempts, the longest streak at any point in a game in team history, before ending the first half with an incompletion on a Hail Mary. Fields finished with career-highs of 335 passing yards and four TD tosses, including two to tight end Cole Kmet. See which team to pick here.
How to make Commanders vs. Bears picks on TNF
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total, calling for 48 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Commanders vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread cashes almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Bears spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 168-118 roll on NFL picks, and find out.