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The Yankees’ pivot from the disappointment of losing Juan Soto was as shrewd as it was immediate.
That is, Max Fried won’t fill the gaping hole in the lineup left by Soto’s departure, obviously, but he could be similarly impactful, especially come October.
By signing the former Atlanta Braves left-hander to an eight-year, $218 contract on Tuesday, the Yankees’ first move was to enhance their greatest strength — their starting rotation — rather than rush to address the need for offense.
It makes sense for a couple of key reasons:
1)Fried was arguably the best free agent available, depending on whether you rank him ahead or behind Corbin Burnes, and at least a handful of teams were moving quickly to get a deal done, according to reports.
Also, his addition gives the Yankees the type of starting pitching that can win championships even without great offense.
2)Brian Cashman will make significant moves to improve the offense, but there was no one move that would make up for what Soto provided — and none that demanded immediate action, as dictated by the market.
“It’s a little bit like the scene from ‘Moneyball,’” one major league scout said with a laugh on Tuesday night. “All the scouts are sitting around the table trying to figure out how they’re going to replace (Jason) Giambi and (Johnny) Damon, and Brad Pitt (as Billy Beane) says, ‘you guys don’t get it. There’s not anybody we can sign who can replace those guys. We’ve got to do it another way.’“
It’s not exactly the same, of course, because in the movie the A’s couldn’t afford to sign the top free agents so they prioritized on-base percentage, which at the time was undervalued throughout the game, and it paid off. Though it should be noted the movie, for the sake of the storyline, all but ignored the fact that the A’s had three of the best starters in baseball at the time in Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder.
“So I guess what I’m saying,“ the scout continued, “is the comparison works in a couple of ways. Cashman wasn’t going to chase offense just to make a move, and I think he found the way to add the most value available by signing Fried. The Yankees could have the best rotation in baseball and that still matters.
“You can argue that bullpens are more important than ever, but give me starters who can get you deep into games in October and I think that greatly improves your chances of winning in a long postseason.”
Yes, Aaron Boone would be thrilled to have Gerrit Cole and Fried as his starters for Games 1 and 2 in a postseason series, likely followed by Carlos Rodon and then either Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt, with one of them perhaps becoming a Wild Card type of reliever.
There is potential for plenty of dominance in any such series, and another scout made the point that the depth of starters could pay off in the bullpen as well.
“If you wind up moving an arm like Schmidt or Gil to the pen in the postseason,” said the scout, “it has a ripple effect and potentially helps keep your late-inning guys fresher.
“Even with the off-days, bullpens get worn down (in the postseason). We saw it this past October with a team like Cleveland. They had the best pen in the regular season but their guys got worn down from constant use and it caught up with them.
“The trend is to get starters out of the game earlier in the postseason but if you have front-line starters you might be a little more willing to let them go deep.”
It makes for intriguing possibilities, to be sure.
Fried’s signing was universally praised by baseball people on Tuesday, and for good reason. He turns 31 in January and has been one of the most consistent top starters in the game for the last several seasons, with ERAs over the last five seasons of 3.25, 2.55, 2.48, 3.04, and 2.25.
The one concern about Fried is injury-related. Over each of the last two seasons, he has missed time due to forearm strains. In both cases, he returned from the injury and continued to pitch well, but forearm injuries are always worrisome because at times they are precursors to elbow injuries.
But presuming that he’s healthy, Fried figures to age well. He’s not a huge strikeout pitcher but is a master at getting weak contact because of the movement on his pitches, most notably an elite curveball and a very good sinker.
The proof is in the numbers: Per MLB Statcast, Fried ranked in the 95th percentile among all major league pitchers in limiting hitters’ exit velocity, and the 96th percentile in ground ball percentage.
“His stuff will play well in Yankee Stadium,” said a scout. “He’ll keep the ball in the ballpark. He reminds me a little of Andy Pettitte because he has a knack for getting ground ball double plays when he needs them. He’s not fazed by traffic on the bases.”
To that point, with runners in scoring position for his career Fried has held hitters to a .210 batting average — and .193 with two outs/RISP.
All of which speaks to why the Yankees’ first Plan B move was a good one. And while Fried’s $218 million price tag is hefty, extending the deal over eight years keeps it to $27.25 million per year, providing room to address the offense as well.
Those moves are coming. Perhaps the Yankees will sign Christian Walker to play first base, and trade for Cody Bellinger.
Whatever they do, the offense won’t be the same without Soto. But with Fried likely to make a strong rotation even better, it may not have to be.