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The Chiba Lotte Marines announced Saturday they will begin the process of posting Roki Sasaki, the Japanese right-hander considered one of the most talented pitchers in the world, paving the way for the 23-year-old to join Major League Baseball in 2025.
The posting system is the method of transfer between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball that makes him available to all 30 teams.
Sasaki, nicknamed “The Monster of the Reiwa Era,” throws a fastball that regularly reaches triple digits and complements it with a frontline split-fingered fastball and a slider.
Because of his age, Sasaki is considered an international amateur free agent and can sign only a minor league contract, which drastically limits how much teams can pay him — and how much Lotte reaps through the associated 20% posting fee. Players who are at least 25 with six years played in a foreign league can sign major league contracts when posted. Had he waited, Sasaki could have sought a deal for hundreds of millions of dollars, similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in late December for 12 years and $325 million. Instead, Sasaki, who asked to be posted last year but was denied by the team, will take a similar path as Shohei Ohtani, the superstar who arrived in MLB at 23 and signed with the Los Angeles Angels for $2.3 million.
The timing of Sasaki’s posting — which has yet to be set, sources said — will determine whether he falls into the 2024 or 2025 international amateur class. When a player is posted, he has a 45-day window to sign with a major league team. Though Sasaki would join an organization on a minor league deal, a team can add him to its major league roster before the 2025 season.
International amateur bonus pools are capped, with the top teams this year able to spend just over $7.1 million, larger-market, higher-spending teams at $4.6 million and the rest in between. Teams can add up to 60% of their allotted pools by trading for other teams’ bonus-pool money. Most teams have spent the majority of their 2024 bonus pools already, with the signing period for international free agents running from Jan. 15 to Dec. 15 annually.
Were the official posting to be delayed until mid-December — it typically takes weeks to complete the process — Sasaki could sign when the 2025 international period opens Jan. 15. Though most teams have commitments lined up for players in that period — the top bonus pools are around $7.5 million and the bottom around $5.1 million — they could trade for international bonus space or free up money by not honoring nonbinding commitments they have made to teenagers from Latin American countries, an infrequent but not unheard of occurrence.
For a player of Sasaki’s talent, teams are likely to do whatever they can to convince him to sign.
Sasaki emerged as a national star in Japan five years ago during Koshien, the national high school baseball tournament that is one of the country’s biggest annual sporting events. Over an eight-day period, he threw more than 500 pitches, including a 12-inning, 21-strikeout, 194-pitch complete game.
In 2022, at 20, Sasaki threw a 19-strikeout perfect game for Lotte and followed in his next start a week later with eight more perfect innings before being pulled. Sasaki’s immense fastball velocity shown during the 2023 World Baseball Classic — he averaged 100.5 mph in Japan’s semifinal start against Mexico — introduced him to an international audience, and though his request to join MLB after the 2023 season went unmet by Lotte, the inevitability of his departure only grew.
Sasaki did not sign his 2024 contract until January, just before Lotte began spring training. Rarely do players hold out from signing their deals until then, and the episode wound up a precursor for what would come after a 10-5 season in which Sasaki posted a 2.35 ERA, struck out 129, walked 32 and gave up two home runs in 111 innings.
Often players are posted when Japanese teams regard them as having “earned” the privilege, multiple sources familiar with past postings said. Though Sasaki has shown flashes of brilliance over his 394⅔ innings — going 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts against 88 walks in 64 starts over four seasons — he would not arrive in MLB with the same sort of résumé as his predecessors.
The rousing success of Japanese players in MLB has been one of the game’s biggest stories of the past decade, with soon-to-be three-time MVP Ohani, Yamamoto, left-handers Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs) and Yusei Kikuchi (free agent), and outfielders Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) and Masataka Yoshida (Boston Red Sox) all going through the posting system. Right-hander Kodai Senga joined the New York Mets without a posting fee after 11 seasons with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.
MLB teams had braced for the possibility that Lotte would hold onto Sasaki for at least two more years, allowing him to reach 25 and for the organization to experience the full financial benefit of the posting. NPB teams control players’ rights for nine seasons before they reach free agency and can operate outside of the posting system. Had Lotte waited until after the 2026 season, it could have received tens of millions of dollars via the posting fee paid by the acquiring team. The Dodgers paid the Orix Blue Wave more than $50 million after signing Yamamoto.
Los Angeles will be linked strongly to Sasaki, but assuming he will go to the Dodgers is premature. While the presence of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles is advantageous, the attention they bring — and the media horde that follows them — adds a different element than other teams.
Throughout the 2024 season, MLB presidents of baseball operations and general managers were fixtures at Sasaki’s starts. Sasaki is close with right-hander Yu Darvish, whose team, the San Diego Padres, figures to be a potential landing spot. Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, though he could also opt for an organization with pedigree and experience (the Chicago Cubs), a team in an international city (the Toronto Blue Jays), one whose past success with Japanese players still resonates (Darvish started his career with the Texas Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing the best out in players might appeal (the Tampa Bay Rays). Plenty of other franchises can — and will — make strong appeals to Sasaki once he is posted.
Unlike a traditional free agency, Sasaki’s comes with a financial ceiling, making him a bargain to all 30 teams. Sasaki’s talent is not in doubt to anyone, even as average fastball velocity this season dropped by two ticks, down to just above 97 mph. Sasaki showed plenty of ability to ramp it up to triple digits when desired, and he could soon develop into the hardest-throwing starter in MLB. His best pitch is still the splitter, whose movement profile makes it unique, even in an MLB where the split has come back into vogue in recent seasons.
Durability is the biggest question with Sasaki. His career high in innings is 129⅓, set in 2022. This year, he made 18 starts after a torn oblique and right arm soreness caused him to sit out about a quarter of his outings.
The recruitment of Sasaki comes amid a free agent period that is expected to move more quickly than recent years and adds a layer of intrigue into an offseason in which Sasaki would join free agent outfielder Juan Soto and right-hander Corbin Burnes as the most coveted players available — at a fraction of the price.