2021 NFL Draft: Broncos, Ravens, Vikings among teams most likely to trade up or down in first round

The 2021 NFL Draft is nearly upon us, and the first-round order is set, barring another last-minute swap like Friday’s Orlando Brown Jr. deal, which saw the Kansas City Chiefs surrender No. 31 as part of a package for their new left tackle. But even if the pecking order stays the same up until the draft’s kickoff at 8 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, we’re bound to see more movement once teams are officially on the clock. First-round trades, after all, are as intriguing as the selections themselves.

Which teams are most likely to move up in the first round? Which ones are most likely to move down? And which ones are all but guaranteed to move either up or down? Here’s a rundown:

Most likely to move up

Denver Broncos (No. 9)

Drew Lock still has support from the front office, but new general manager George Paton has admitted he’s after competition at quarterback. That could mean a Day Two pick, but we tend to think they’d prefer Justin Fields or Trey Lance. It helps they have an early second-rounder (No. 40) to throw into a potential deal.

Los Angeles Chargers (No. 13)

GM Tom Telesco doesn’t always make draft-day deals, but when he does, it’s often to jump up. This year, it makes real sense: If they are within striking distance of either top tight end Kyle Pitts or one of the top two tackles in Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater, they could easily sell themselves on helping Justin Herbert. They have ammunition, too, with nine total picks, including two third-rounders.

Washington Football Team (No. 19)

Ron Rivera and Co. are probably more in win-now mode than we realize, considering they just won the division, signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to play QB and spent big on wide receiver and cornerback upgrades. With eight picks, including an extra third-rounder from their 2020 Trent Williams deal, they could stand to move up if a top QB slides, or to add an elite defender.

Chicago Bears (No. 20)

The only way GM Ryan Pace is going to assuage the fears (and/or apathy) of Bears fans who just saw him commit to Andy Dalton as the QB for his regime’s make-or-break year? Making a splashy jump for a premier play-maker. Ideally, that would come at QB, which will almost definitely cost a fortune, but if they were willing to pay out the wazoo for Russell Wilson, it can’t be ruled out.

Tennessee Titans (No. 22)

After losing Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and Adoree Jackson, they should be in the hunt for a Day One impact player, especially since they’re built to contend now. With nine total picks, including an extra third, they have the ammo to move inside the top 20, if not the top 15, for one of the last “elite” prospects at a position of need like cornerback.

Baltimore Ravens (Nos. 27, 31)

There might not be a team more primed to move up, at least in terms of draft capital. They own 10 total picks after Friday’s trade with the Chiefs, and seven of them fall within the first four rounds. With two firsts, two thirds and two fourths, they could eye a big leap — perhaps all the way into the top 15 — if they covet a top blocker, receiver or pass rusher for their playoff roster.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 32)

They’re not overflowing with picks, entering the draft with eight total and just one in each of the first six rounds. But they are still quarterbacked by Tom Brady, who will be 44 in the fall and is bent on running it back rather than building for the long term. Who says they won’t be aggressive to add an immediate starter or luxury depth piece for their Super Bowl defense?

Most likely to move down

Detroit Lions (No. 7)

If a top QB falls into their lap, they’ll probably think long and hard about standing pat. Otherwise, they have every reason to move back. With just six total picks, they could use more bites at the apple for the start of the new regime. Top-10 talents at WR, CB and LB could still be available to them on a slight drop in the order, too.

Carolina Panthers (No. 8)

They’re probably less inclined than the Lions to actually do it, especially if a QB falls within reach. But again, quantity should be a goal for them, considering they’re still overturning things and have just five picks in the first five rounds. They could potentially also still get a top-end tackle or cornerback by sliding somewhere into the early teens.

Miami Dolphins (Nos. 6, 18)

They already moved back from No. 3 to No. 12, before jumping back up to No. 6. So clearly there’s flexibility with this club. The kicker, though, is the fact they also own No. 18, which could easily be leveraged in talks with teams outside the top 20. Miami isn’t hurting for additional picks but lacks a fourth-rounder, so it’s easy to see why they might be open to sliding down again.

Arizona Cardinals (No. 16)

You might argue they should be more likely to move up in order to help accelerate the playoff trajectory with Kyler Murray. But they’re in a tough spot where the top corners and blockers could be off the board. With just six total picks, they could also stand to bulk up their supply for Day Two, where they currently own just one pick. GM Steve Keim has admitted as much.

Indianapolis Colts (No. 21)

GM Chris Ballard already forfeited a third-rounder in the deal for QB Carson Wentz. He could potentially recoup a pick of that caliber in a slide closer to the back of the round, if not just out of the first. There’s plenty of reason to stay put, of course, but Indy just might be able to nab a starting-caliber tackle or pass rusher closer to the second round.

Most likely to move up or down

Philadelphia Eagles (No. 12)

GM Howie Roseman already dropped from No. 6, but if there’s one personnel chief never content to sit still, it’s him. The Eagles have a long history of moving in the first round. If Kyle Pitts or a top QB slides, or they want to ensure they get the best WR or CB, they have an extra third to jump up. They might also be able to “settle” for a CB or pass rusher later by dropping a few spots.

Minnesota Vikings (No. 14)

Like Roseman, GM Rick Spielman is always on the move on draft day. You can almost guarantee he’ll be at it again. The question is, which way is he headed? With 10 picks, including a whopping four fourth-rounders and six total picks between Rounds 2-3, the Vikings could talk themselves into a major leap for a tackle, corner or, dare we say, QB.

New England Patriots (No. 15)

Everyone is pegging them for a potential blockbuster move up considering they went all in on free agency and have one major position still to solve: QB. It’s not as if they lack the capital to do it. With 10 picks, including three fourth-rounders, they could easily find their way into the top 10. Still, Bill Belichick’s resume tells us New England is always looking to move back and collect picks, not sell them.

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