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With a pair of resilient, ground-out wins over Wolves in February, Arsenal have firmly cemented themselves as contenders for finishing in the top four this season.
For a long time, Champions League football was a given at Emirates Stadium, but since Arsene Wenger’s final campaign, that hasn’t been the case.
This season, however, Arsenal are back in the conversation. Somewhat unexpectedly, after a stuttering start to the season, Arsenal are two points off 4th place with two games in hand, and Mikel Arteta’s young side seem to growing in confidence on a weekly basis.
While there are almost certainly still twists and turns to come in the race for the Champions League places, Mikel Arteta’s team look to be in a slightly stronger situation than fellow contenders Manchester United, Tottenham and West Ham.
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Will Arsenal finish in the top four? Who do they still have to play?
Arsenal look to be in the driving seat in the race for fourth spot, with two games in hand. However, those two games are away to fierce local rivals Tottenham and Chelsea, where nothing can be taken for granted.
There’s also the factor of considering what their opponents have to play for. In theory, the run of mid-table sides such as Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton should provide a great opportunity for momentum. But closing out the season against three teams fighting for their Premier League survival – Leeds, Newcastle and Everton – could be a concern.
| Match | Date | Home/Away | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| 25 | Sun, Mar. 6 | A | Watford | 9 a.m |
| 26 | Sun, Mar. 13 | H | Leicester | 11:30 a.m. |
| 27 | Wed, Mar. 16 | H | Liverpool | 3:15 p.m. |
| 28 | Sat, Mar. 19 | A | Aston Villa | 7:30 a.m. |
| 29 | Mon, Apr. 4 | A | Crystal Palace | 3:00 p.m. |
| 30 | Sat, Apr. 9 | H | Brighton | 10:00 a.m. |
| 31 | Sat, Apr. 16 | A | Southampton | 10:00 a.m. |
| 32 | Sat, Apr. 23 | H | Man United | 10:00 a.m. |
| 33 | Sat, Apr. 30 | A | West Ham | 10:00 a.m. |
| 34 | Sat, May 7 | H | Leeds | 10:00 a.m. |
| 35 | Sun, May 15 | A | Newcastle | 10:00 a.m. |
| 36 | Sun, May 22 | H | Everton | 11:00 a.m. |
| 37 | TBC | A | Tottenham | TBC |
| 38 | TBC | A | Chelsea | TBC |
In the last two seasons, Chelsea finished 4th with 67 points and 66 points. Prior to that, in 2018/19, Tottenham needed a higher tally of 71 points to get a Champions League spot. In 2017/18 and 2016/17, Liverpool finished 4th with 75 points and 76 points, respectively.
So, as the competition in the top half of the table becomes greater, the points totals of the top-four contenders are naturally trending downwards. If Arsenal continued with their current points-per-game trajectory, they would end the campaign on a healthy 71 points.
When was the last time Arsenal were in the Champions League?
In the heyday of Wenger, Champions League football was less a goal and more an expectation. The French icon infamously likened the achievement of a top-four finish to a trophy.
However, he fell short in his penultimate season, of 2016/17. That was the last season in which Arsenal played in Europe’s top competition.
Although the Gunners lifted the FA Cup that season, they fell short in the league by agonizingly finishing one point behind 4th-placed Liverpool. Arsenal were also infamously beaten 10-2 on aggregate by Bayern Munich in the Champions League round of 16.
The following season was Wenger’s last, with Arsenal way off the pace, 12 points behind Liverpool. He nearly salvaged a Champions League spot via the Europa League, but suffered a painful semi-final loss to Atletico Madrid.
Unai Emery came in and again finished a point short of qualification. He also lost a Europa League final, 4-1 to Chelsea.
Mikel Arteta has been 10 and six points off in his two seasons in charge, while exiting the Europa League at the round-of-32 and semi-final stages.
Arsenal’s record in the Champions League
Arsenal qualified for the Champions League in 19 successive seasons under Wenger. During that time, they reached just one final – which ended in a 2-1 defeat to Barcelona in 2005/06.
They made the semi-finals once, but were blown away by a Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired Manchester United in 2008/09. Four quarter-final exits were the next closest they came.
Despite Wenger’s enormous success in revolutionizing English football, his record in European competition will forever be a sore point for Arsenal fans, who never quite saw their team fulfil their world-beating potential.
Why Arsenal qualifying for the Champions League is important
Arsenal have made big efforts in the last couple of seasons to trim their wage bill. They had, what CEO VInai Venkatesham described as, “a Champions League squad on a Europa League wage bill.”
With the club taking a longer-term approach, and trusting Mikel Arteta with more responsibility, the benefit of Champions League football at this stage in the cycle would be massive.
Firstly, it would be a real vindication of the trust that has been shown in the Spanish coach. Secondly, the increase in revenue, from broadcast and matchday income, would be substantial, and only add to the financial backing that KSE have committed to Arteta’s rebuild.
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While the goal for this season would have been to finish in the top six, and achieve at least Europa League football, bypassing that step and heading straight into the Champions League would be a boost from a footballing point of view. The travel and scheduling of the Europa League can be a real drag on a team.
In addition, the prestige that comes with competing in Europe’s elite club competition will play an important part in attracting top-level players to the club. With Arsenal desperately needing to strength in midfield and up front in the summer, the prospect of Champions League football will make the Emirates that much more appealing a destination.