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This story was excerpted from Juan Toribio’s Dodgers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
LOS ANGELES — For as long as the Dodgers are alive in the postseason, a lot of the conversation will be centered on their starting pitching.
The Dodgers haven’t been shy in saying they won’t be using a traditional approach. It would be surprising to see any starter go more than five innings, much less six. That’s just how they believe they can best maximize the roster.
Regardless of how Dave Roberts manages his pitching staff, the Dodgers’ chances at a second World Series title in four seasons will depend on the offense.
Despite losing Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger to free agency and Gavin Lux to a season-ending knee injury, the Dodgers put together one of the best offensive seasons in the Majors and one of the most potent in franchise history.
The Dodgers scored 906 runs this season, the second-most in the Majors behind only the Braves, who were historically good with 947.
None of that matters when you roll into the postseason. The Dodgers learned that the hard way in 2022 after the league’s best offense went silent for most of the National League Division Series against the Padres, ultimately sending them home much earlier than expected.
Last October, the Dodgers scored 12 runs in four games, scoring more than three runs in just one. A big problem there was the lack of hitting with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers were 2-for-26 in those situations in the three losses to San Diego.
If the Dodgers have a similar offensive output, it won’t matter how the pitching plans come to fruition. So how can the Dodgers avoid that and perform better this time around? To answer that, it’s best to split it up into tiers.
The answer to more offense could be really easy for the Dodgers. If Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are locked in at the plate, it’s going to be difficult to beat the Dodgers. Heck, if one of them is red hot, it just might be enough.
That’s how good Betts and Freeman — who will both likely finish in the top three in NL MVP voting — have been this season. Betts set a career high in homers with 39. Freeman hit 29 home runs and was one double shy of becoming the first player in almost 90 years with 60.
In October, of course, things change. The pitching is more dominant. Betts, for example, has just four homers and a .741 OPS in 55 career postseason games. Last postseason, Betts went 2-for-14. Freeman has had much more success in the playoffs, hitting 10 homers with a .947 OPS in 46 games. More of that would be welcomed in Los Angeles.
“Things change for sure in October,” Betts said. “But if me and Freddie have to [carry the offense], I’m sure we’ll be up for the task.”
Betts and Freeman might be able to handle it on their own. But it’s much more realistic that they’re going to need help in the middle of the order. Luckily for the Dodgers, they have a formidable trio behind their two superstars.
Will Smith, Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez make up one of the best 3-4-5 trios in the league. Smith, despite struggling in the second half, is still one of the most feared offensive catchers in the Majors. Muncy and Martinez joined Betts and Freeman as the first quartet of Dodgers hitters to post 100 or more RBIs.
Muncy has been a big part of the Dodgers’ offense and has 10 homers with a .887 OPS in 46 postseason games. Martinez’s best trait is his ability to hit with runners in scoring position. In his career, the Dodgers’ designated hitter has a .298 average in those situations.
“I’ve been on a lot of teams with really, really good offenses and I’ve never been on a team that has done that,” Martinez said. “It just speaks volumes of this team and how deep we are up and down the lineup.”
“There’s been World Series MVPs that, you know them, but you would never expect,” Betts said. “So it’s definitely going to come from all of us. It’s probably going to be someone who’s not on everybody’s radar. That’s the kind of person that usually carries.”
Betts is right. We’ve seen that time and time again in the postseason. Dodgers fans still have nightmares over what Eddie Rosario did to them in 2021. So who could be the Dodgers’ version of that?
We don’t know who will step up for Dodgers this postseason. But if ends up being a combination of players from more than one of these tiers, the Dodgers could be a really tough out in October.
“The bottom of the order has done a lot of good things the last couple weeks,” Roberts said. “For us to do what we need to do, which is win 11 games in October, it needs to be more than The Mookie and Freddie Show. It can’t be.”