Products You May Like
The UTEP Miners ended the 2020 college football season on a sour note. After an encouraging start, UTEP dropped the last four games of the campaign and, with only eight contests on the schedule, the offseason likely felt long in El Paso. On Saturday evening, however, UTEP returns to the gridiron with a season-opening road tilt against New Mexico State. NMSU did not play in 2020, though the Aggies did face a pair of FCS opponents in a shortened spring slate in 2021.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Miners as 9.5-point road favorites, up from the opening point spread, for this 9:30 p.m. ET start. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 59 in the latest UTEP vs. New Mexico State odds. Before locking in any New Mexico State vs. UTEP picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. For the 2020 season, it went 56-37 on all top-rated picks and returned over $1,200 on its top-rated spread and over-under picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on UTEP vs. New Mexico State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for New Mexico State vs. UTEP:
- UTEP vs. New Mexico State spread: UTEP -9.5
- UTEP vs. New Mexico State over-under: 59 points
- UTEP vs. New Mexico State money line: UTEP -380, NMSU +300
- UTEP: The Miners were 5-3 against the spread last season
- NMSU: The Aggies finished 1-1 in a shortened spring season.
Why UTEP can cover
Despite UTEP’s modest preseason expectations, the Miners are substantial road favorites in this matchup. Some of that can reflect more optimism about the Miners than one might think, but some is attributable to the weaknesses of New Mexico State. The Aggies went just 1-1 against FCS teams in the spring, including a shocking 43-17 loss to Tarleton State. New Mexico State allowed more than 1,000 yards of total offense in those two games, including a yards-per-carry average that exceeded five.
The Aggies don’t have a proven option at quarterback, and they are also replacing their top three pass-catchers from their last full season of action in 2019. Beyond that, New Mexico State was just 2-10 in 2019 and the Aggies lost a lot of overall talent from that squad. It is never easy to go on the road and win in college football, but UTEP does have the superior roster and more recent success.
Why New Mexico State can cover
While it was a short campaign, New Mexico State has the advantage of cohesion after playing in the spring. That may be a small thing but, when adding in home-field advantage and some tangible strengths, the Aggies are in a strong position. New Mexico State is physical, and the Aggies might have the best player on the field in Sage Doxtater. Doxtater is a tremendous offensive tackle, earning a top-round draft slot in the CFL before his final college season, and he is a fixture for New Mexico State.
The Aggies also have an Ole Miss transfer in Eli Johnson, who started 12 games for the Rebels in 2019, and Michigan transfer O’Maury Samuels adds to an already deep and talented stable of running backs. On the outside, JUCO transfer Terrell Warner led the team with eight catches in the spring, and Jonah Johnson brings talent and size (6’3, 235 pounds) at the quarterback position. Defensively, Trevor Brohard leads a group that does have a lot of question marks, but defensive back Devlin Kirklin added 14 tackles in the two spring games, leading to optimism on the backend.
How to make New Mexico State vs. UTEP picks
SportsLine’s model has a slight lean to the over on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins UTEP vs. New Mexico State? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the New Mexico State vs. UTEP spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.