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A year ago at this time, Gonzaga’s biggest question mark was point guard play. Mark Few was loaded all over the roster, but freshman Jalen Suggs was going to have a lot on his shoulders from day one, and neither Dominick Harris nor Aaron Cook was a sure thing at PG if Suggs moved off the ball. Of course, the Bulldogs ended up getting a waiver for Florida transfer point guard Andrew Nembhard right before the start of the campaign and they went out and produced arguably the most efficient offense we’ve ever seen over the course of a season.
It’s not always that easy to solve potential problems.
When making preseason top 25s or Final Four predictions six months in advance, we tend to think of best-case scenarios for teams. Everything is on paper, where chemistry doesn’t exist and role allocation remains a mystery. For the most part, these exercises are about thinking big picture instead of digging into the nitty-gritty of possible fatal flaws.
But fatal flaws are what we’re here for! Here are the eight questions we think will determine the national championship discussion for the 2021-22 college basketball season. Some might not be answered until early April, but will provide something to monitor in the first couple months of the season:
1. How will Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren coexist at Gonzaga?
Drew Timme is the best returning player in college basketball. Chet Holmgren is the best freshman entering college basketball. Timme is 6-foot-10. Holmgren is a 7-footer. Of course, both are going to start and be on the floor together for around 30 minutes per night. They have differing skill sets, but how they play off each other offensively and how they defend at the other end will determine whether Gonzaga lives up to its preseason No. 1 billing.
Timme was perfect for Gonzaga’s ultra-efficient offense last season, with four perimeter players floating around him in the paint and giving him plenty of space to maneuver around the basket. Holmgren is very comfortable playing away from the basket, making one 3 per game and dishing out 3.3 assists with the United States’ U19 team at the FIBA U19 World Cup this summer. Defensively, I would expect Holmgren to be used as Gonzaga’s rim protector (he averaged 2.7 blocks in just over 21 minutes) and Timme to guard a bit more away from the basket. That could potentially be an issue against smaller teams.
But it’s still two potential first-team All-Americans. Mark Few will make it work.
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Emoni Bates, the No. 3 basketball prospect in the 2021 ESPN 100, announces his intent to play college basketball at Memphis.
2. Is Emoni Bates Memphis’ answer at point guard?
Penny Hardaway and Memphis became the story in college basketball when the Tigers landed potential top-five picks Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates in August, with both players reclassifying from 2022 and enrolling at Memphis for this season. With both players in the fold, Hardaway now has one of the most talented rosters in the country — and the preseason expectations to go with it. The Tigers are now a top-10 team in college basketball, but the big question centers on how they plan on utilizing Bates. Part of Memphis’ pitch to Bates was having him come in and play the point guard spot, a la Hardaway in his playing days.
It makes sense in theory, but Bates has rarely been used as a creator and playmaker for others during his high school career — most of that due to being by far the best player on his team. But he’s a truly elite scorer and one of the best pull-up shot-makers we’ve seen in the last few years. Surrounded by returning starters like Landers Nolley II and DeAndre Williams and potential first-rounders like Duren and Earl Timberlake, Bates will need to get others involved. He’s skilled enough as a passer to rack up assists, but it might take time, and there are a slew of veterans — Lester Quinones, Alex Lomax, Tyler Harris — that will be knocking on the door for playing time.
3. Was NCAA tournament UCLA the real UCLA?
It’s been one of the biggest questions of the offseason. Is UCLA going to be more like the team that lost four in a row to end the season, finishing 17-9 and being picked for the First Four of the NCAA tournament — or the group that won five games in 12 days and came a 40-footer buzzer-beater shy of potentially playing for the national championship?
It’s easier to lean toward the latter, especially since every player who was part of that NCAA tournament run is back in Westwood. On top of that, Mick Cronin is bringing in projected lottery pick Peyton Watson and Rutgers graduate transfer Myles Johnson, one of the best defensive players in the Big Ten. Cronin clearly found something that worked in the tournament. UCLA was far more efficient offensively, relying heavily on Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr., to create offense, while Tyger Campbell excelled at taking care of the ball. The Bruins also had three of their best defensive performances of the season against Abilene Christian, Alabama and Michigan — and their ability to play more interchangeably down the stretch made a difference.
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With seconds left in the game, the Sun Devils swing the ball over to Remy Martin who sinks the corner 3-pointer with a hand in his face.
4. Can Remy Martin be more facilitator than scorer?
The only question for Kansas entering the offseason was at point guard. The Jayhawks were losing Marcus Garrett, who shouldered most of the ball-handling responsibilities last season, and there was no obvious replacement. But Bill Self went out and landed Arizona State transfer Remy Martin, arguably the best transfer in the country last spring. Martin earned first-team All-Pac-12 honors each of the last two seasons and averaged 19.1 points each of those two campaigns.
In Lawrence, though, Martin will be playing a much different style than in Tempe — Arizona State was the fastest team in the Pac-12 each of the last two seasons — and he’s not going to be tasked with lighting up the scoreboard every night. Four veteran starters who averaged at least 9.8 points are all back. So Martin will have the ball in his hands, but he’ll have to look to distribute and facilitate more than score. It’s also interesting to note that Self told reporters last month that Dajuan Harris is in the discussion to start at point guard ahead of Martin. I think Martin adapts his game and makes a huge impact; it’s why I have Kansas No. 2 nationally.
5. How does Chris Beard keep everyone happy at Texas?
On paper, I don’t know if there’s a more talented team in the country than the Longhorns. It starts with the two returnees, Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones, who both started 26 games last season and have been key players in Austin for years. Then there’s the transfer class: Chris Beard brings in six of the top 30 transfers in ESPN’s rankings. Oh, there’s also a couple returning rotation players in Jase Febres and Brock Cunningham, and top-30 recruit Jaylon Tyson. Obviously it’s better to have too much talent than not enough, but there are some concerns on how it’s all going to work.
Marcus Carr carried the offense at Minnesota, averaging 19.4 points. He won’t get as many shots at Texas, and Ramey is also going to have the ball in his hands. Tre Mitchell was the most dominant player in the Atlantic 10 at UMass; he’ll face tougher defenses in the Big 12. If Utah transfer Timmy Allen — maybe the team’s best playmaker — also starts, that leaves all-SEC forward Dylan Disu (Vanderbilt) and Christian Bishop (Creighton), who started every game for a Sweet 16 team, coming off the bench.
I think Beard figures it out and gets everyone to buy in — and if that happens, this team is going to be a force.
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Zach Edey gets the rebound and then goes up for his Division-I leading ninth dunk of the season
6. Can Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey take the next step at Purdue?
Matt Painter brings back nearly every player from last season’s team that earned a 4-seed in the NCAA tournament, including all five starters and one of the nation’s best players in big man Trevion Williams. But the real reason for a potential national championship run would come from a breakout season from Jaden Ivey. Ivey is the top-ranked returning player in ESPN’s 2022 NBA draft rankings, despite starting just 12 games last season as a freshman. He’s been the subject of much “breakout” hype, and a tremendous showing at the FIBA U19 World Cup in Latvia did nothing to slow that down. He also averaged 14.8 points in his 12 starts in 2020-21, and becoming a consistent go-to guy takes the Boilermakers up a notch.
Don’t forget about 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, either. The Canadian big man was dominant at the aforementioned World Cup, including a 16-point, 16-rebound effort against the United States. He only started two games last season, but he gives Painter an option very few teams possess.
7. Does Villanova improve despite the loss of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl?
Villanova finds itself in most preseason top 5s, but this is a team that was 16-4 and not really in the 1-seed hunt before Collin Gillespie was lost for the season — and also lost its best player, Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. While there aren’t any real replacements for Robinson-Earl entering the fold, count me on the side of the Wildcats being in the national conversation all season.
Gillespie is healthy, and he’ll be one of the best point guards in college basketball. Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels and Caleb Daniels all return as starters from last season. Those four give Jay Wright three seniors and a junior as his core — that generally works out well for Villanova under Wright. The Wildcats will need someone to step forward, but Trey Patterson, Jordan Longino and Nnanna Njoku were all promising recruits and Eric Dixon brings size.
8. Who is this season’s Michigan or Alabama?
If I knew the right answer to this question already, I probably would just rank that team higher. But it’s still fun to discuss potential options. Michigan was ranked No. 25 in last year’s preseason AP poll, but went on to win 18 of their first 19 games and the Big Ten regular-season championship. Alabama won the SEC by 2.5 games after finding itself in the “others receiving votes” category in the preseason poll. The Wolverines ended up as a 1-seed, while Alabama earned a 2-seed.
So which team can surprise everyone and become a nationally relevant factor all season?
Two potential options could be Auburn and Mississippi State. I have Auburn ranked just inside the Way-Too-Early Top 25, but on paper, the Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the country. Allen Flanigan — assuming he returns from a right Achilles injury — was one of the best NBA prospects returning to college basketball, Walker Kessler was a top-15 recruit entering last season and Jabari Smith is a projected lottery pick. And there are enough options in the backcourt, including Georgia transfer K.D. Johnson, a big-time scorer last season. Mississippi State has two terrific players coming back in Iverson Molinar and Tolu Smith and four incoming transfers, highlighted by North Carolina big man Garrison Brooks. Florida, with its incoming transfers and the return of Colin Castleton, is another option.
Outside the SEC, and digging much deeper, I’ll throw out Indiana. The Hoosiers have questions — new coach, lost a couple starters, went 12-15 last season — but they have talent and experience. Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best players in the country, Race Thompson and Rob Phinisee return as starters and four transfers enter the fold. Top-25 recruit Tamar Bates is also expected to be a factor. It’s a huge reach, but I wanted to get one outside the box.