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The American Express has been a birdie-fest in recent years, and that is expected to be the case again during the 2024 American Express beginning on Thursday in La Quinta, California. Three different courses are used for the tournament, with the Pete Dye Stadium Course hosting the final 18 holes on Sunday. Jon Rahm won as the favorite last year, but Scottie Scheffler is the favorite this year with Rahm not a part of the 2024 American Express field after leaving the PGA Tour. Scheffler is the +550 favorite in the 2024 American Express odds, followed by Patrick Cantlay (9-1) and Xander Schauffele (9-1).
While Rahm closed as the favorite last year, this has been an excellent tournament for longshot winners, with all seven winners from 2008 to 2014 closing at 100-1 odds or longer. Which longshots should you target with your 2024 American Express bets? Before locking in your 2024 American Express picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure’s best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that The American Express 2024 field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 American Express predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at The American Express 2024: Schauffele, a seven-time winner on the PGA Tour and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and barely cracks the top five. Schauffele is coming off a tie for 10th place at The Sentry, shooting 24-under-par in his first event of the season.
He finished in third place at The American Express last year, but he was outside the top 10 in 2022. While Schauffele performed well on the green during the 2022-23 season, he was not nearly as good off the tee. He finished the year ranked outside the top 100 on the PGA Tour in total driving and driving accuracy, giving bettors a reason to avoid him at short odds this week.
Another surprise: Rickie Fowler, a 40-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The California native opened his season at The Sentry two weeks ago, shooting 10-under-par to get some tournament action under his belt heading into this event.
Fowler is coming off a fantastic 2022-23 season, making the cut in 24 of 26 tournaments while winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has not missed the cut in an event since the PGA Championship last May, pointing toward him being in contention on Sunday against a beatable field. Fowler has already posted one top-10 at this event (2020), and the model has him making another run at the title this weekend. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2024 American Express picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2024 American Express, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out The American Express 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected American Express leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 10 golf majors, including last year’s Masters and Open Championship.
2024 American Express odds, field
See the full American Express picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +550
Patrick Cantlay +900
Xander Schauffele +900
Justin Thomas +2000
Sungjae Im +2200
Min Woo Lee +2500
Tom Kim +2800
Eric Cole +3500
J.T. Poston +3500
Sam Burns +3500
Jason Day +3500
Rickie Fowler +4000
Tony Finau +4000
Wyndham Clark +4000
Chris Kirk +4500
Cam Davis +5000
Daniel Berger +5000
Si Woo Kim +5000
Shane Lowry +5000
Stephan Jaeger +6500
Akshay Bhatia +6500
Taylor Montgomery +6500
Andrew Putnam +8000
Adam Hadwin +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
Alex Noren +8000
Davis Thompson +9000
Tom Hoge +9000
Billy Horschel +9000
Thomas Detry +9000
Adam Schenk +10000
Keith Mitchell +10000
Will Zalatoris +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Matt Wallace +11000
Alex Smalley +11000
Ryo Hisatsune +11000
Erik van Rooyen +11000
Aaron Rai +11000
Ben Griffin +12000
Matt Kuchar +12000
Justin Suh +12000
Nicholas Lindheim +15000
Sam Stevens +15000
Ryan Palmer +15000
Lee Hodges +15000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +15000
K.H. Lee +15000
Chesson Hadley +17000
Garrick Higgo +17000
Nick Taylor +17000
Austin Eckroat +17000
Matti Schmid +17000
Grayson Murray +17000
Mark Hubbard +17000
Matthieu Pavon +20000