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NASCAR is racing at Auto Club Speedway for the first time since 2020 this weekend.
The Cup Series is back in Southern California for the second race of the 2022 season and there may be more unknowns ahead of the race in Fontana than there were before the Daytona 500. Teams had plenty of practice ahead of the Daytona 500 and got a chance to shake down their cars for 60 laps in the Duel qualifying races.
There won’t be nearly as much practice time at Auto Club. Teams will get just 15 minutes of practice before qualifying on Saturday. That’s better than not practicing at all like teams did for most of 2020 and 2021. But it’s still not much of a chance to test out a new car at a track that hasn’t hosted a Cup Series race for 24 months.
That lack of practice and length between races will make betting Sunday’s race tricky. There isn’t really a comparable track to Auto Club on the Cup Series circuit. The 2-mile track is the same size and shape as Michigan but the pavement is much, much, older and there are far more grooves in the corners.
That unpredictability is a big reason why four of the last five Cup Series champions are among the top five favorites for the race. When in doubt, bet the best drivers in the Cup Series. That’s good advice that will apply for the first couple months of the season.
All odds are from BetMGM. Sunday’s race begins at 3:45 p.m. ET on Fox.
The favorites
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Kyle Larson (+350)
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Chase Elliott (+700)
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Kyle Busch (+700)
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Denny Hamlin (+800)
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Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Larson is the clear favorite here because of his dominance at intermediate tracks in 2021. While that’s understandable, the racing could be significantly different at bigger tracks in 2022. We have no qualms with Larson as the favorite, but his odds seem a little out of whack compared to others’.
In case you were wondering, defending Auto Club champion Alex Bowman (the winner of the 2020 race) is at +1200 to win and is last among the four Hendrick cars on the board.
Good mid-tier value
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Kevin Harvick (+1400)
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Christopher Bell (+3300)
Stewart-Haas Racing struggled in 2021 but the new car should mean that the issues it dealt with a year ago don’t carry over. Harvick is worth a bet at these odds.
We’re also a bit surprised at Bell’s odds. He could thrive in 2022 and we wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top-10 stalwart on Sunday. Jump on his odds now before they go down.
Don’t bet this driver
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Tyler Reddick (+1600)
We think Reddick will win a race in 2022 and a track like Auto Club fits his driving style. He could capitalize on the high line in the corners and make a lot of passes. But these odds are way too low to be worth a bet at the moment. Let Reddick get up above +2000 before you wager on him to win.
Looking for a longshot?
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Aric Almirola (+8000)
Almirola has the same odds as Ross Chastain and worse odds than Austin Dillon. While we’re not convinced he’ll have a fairytale final season at Stewart-Haas Racing, he’s likely one of the lowest drivers on the board with a better than zero chance of a really good run.
