Corner Picks, soccer odds, best bets: Liverpool to top Manchester United, Juventus stay hot against Roma, more

Napoli entered the weekend with an 18-point lead over Inter and AC Milan, with only 14 matches left to play. While I refuse to celebrate until anything is official, I have accepted that, barring a disaster the likes of which we’ve never seen, Napoli will win its first scudetto since Diego Maradona donned the shirt in 1990.

I’ve also accepted that the traditional Italian media, which has long looked down upon the country’s southern teams, will look to diminish it in every way possible. They’ll mention how Napoli took advantage of a “down year” in the league for the Milan clubs and Juventus‘ 15-point penalty. They’ll ignore that, even without the 15-point penalty, Juventus would be 15 points behind Napoli — clubs with a combined 10 Champions League titles between them.

They’ll do everything they can to diminish the accomplishment, and I’ll relish every moment of it.

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Roma vs. Juventus

Date: Sunday, March 5 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Roma lost to Cremonese earlier this week. It was Cremonese’s first win in Serie A this season, but it was also the second time Cremonese beat Roma this year, as they knocked them out of the Coppa Italia too (they’ve also knocked Napoli out of the competition). However, I’m not sure losing to Cremonese is worth hitting the panic button. Roma were coming off a win over RB Salzburg to stay alive in the Europa League and had this Juventus match looming. My guess is Jose Mourinho, and his team, got caught looking ahead.

That said, I’m still not confident in Roma this weekend against Juve. Juventus are getting as close to full strength as they’ve been all year. Paul Pogba returned to action in a 4-2 win over Torino earlier this week, and Juve have won six of their last seven, with only a 1-1 draw to Nantes in the Europa League disturbing the run. We’ve seen Roma struggle to score against Italy’s top teams all season, and I don’t expect this weekend will be any different. The Pick: Juventus (+185)

Featured Game | Roma vs. Juventus

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Date: Sunday, March 5 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

Manchester United enter the weekend having won 16 of their 20 matches since returning from the World Cup break, with three draws and only one loss. It’s been a remarkable run, but one thing rarely mentioned about the run is 14 of those 20 matches have been played at home at Old Trafford. Two draws and the lone loss came in one of the six road matches. In Premier League play, United have been much worse on the road. They have an expected goal (xG) differential of +11.1 at home and -0.7 away from it.

Then there’s Liverpool, a team that’s impossible to predict from match to match, but a team that, like United, have been far better at home in the Premier League than the road. They have an xG differential of +11.3 at Anfield compared to -0.9 away from it. Also, while Real Madrid systematically dismantled Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League a couple of weeks ago, Liverpool’s played much better overall in the Premier League. You may wonder why Liverpool are slightly favored in this match, considering how the seasons have gone for both clubs. Perhaps now you better understand why that is and why there’s so much value on Liverpool at this price. The Pick: Liverpool (+140)

Featured Game | Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Southampton vs. Leicester City

Date: Saturday, March 4 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: NBC

I was very angry with myself earlier this week. I considered taking a punt on Grimsby Town to beat Southampton in the FA Cup because I figured Southampton had far bigger fish to fry (you know, the whole not getting relegated thing) than the FA Cup and could punt on the match. Then I “thought better of it” because even Southampton at half-speed should beat a League Two team (a team in 16th place in League Two at that!). Whoops.

Now I’m reduced to hoping to take advantage of a market overreaction to Southampton’s price in this match. It’s easy to forget that Leicester remain in relegation danger and lost an FA Cup match to Blackburn Rovers during the week. Leicester have lost three straight matches and looked very poor defensively in the process. Leicester have been poor defensively away from home all season, and Southampton have been a lot more difficult to break down at home (even if the results don’t reflect it). Maybe you want to bet Leicester City as a favorite on the road, but I don’t. The Pick: Southampton (+170)

Weekend Parlay

We’re keeping things a bit conservative this weekend, with a three-leg parlay paying +135.

• Manchester City (-210)
• Arsenal (-530)
• Inter Milan (-295)