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TORONTO — It’s only fitting that in the first CFL Simulation of the 2022 season, that we start things off talking about the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
You could likely guess without the help of a computer simulation that the two-time defending Grey Cup champions are favoured to complete the three-peat this season. The simulation details, though, just how dominant they’ve been. At 11-1 and the only team in the league to clinch a playoff spot, it’s felt like the Bombers have been a step, then two, then three ahead of the rest of the league all season. That’s reflected in the charts you’ll see below.
One surprising thing you’ll see below is how much the Simulation values the Ottawa REDBLACKS. Despite their slow start, their 3-8 record and the injuries that have forced general manager Shawn Burke to reshape aspects of his roster, you’ll see the REDBLACKS in a decent position to make the playoffs and even host a post-season game.
That faith stems from the team’s two-game win streak and is buoyed by games played later in the schedule being weighted more heavily than games from the start of the season. This is also a good time to remind readers that the Simulation is a snapshot of this moment, Week 14, of the 2022 campaign. There’s still plenty of time for teams to make runs or fall upon hard times and impact the numbers that pair with them right now.
Also worth noting: the third and fifth-most likely Grey Cup matchup scenarios involve the Saskatchewan Roughriders arriving to the big game at Mosaic Stadium having travelled through the East Division as a crossover. If that were to happen it would be a first, as no crossover team has made it further than the Eastern Final.
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Have a look below at our first CFL Simulation of the 2022 season.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| BC Lions (13-5) | 99.99% |
| Calgary Stampeders (11-7) | 99.97% |
| Toronto Argonauts (10-8) | 98.45% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-9) | 96.42% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (7-11) | 60.23% |
| Montreal Alouettes (6-12) | 37.02% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-13) | 5.98% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 1.94% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 99.38% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 98.34% |
| BC Lions | 83.37% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 59.63% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 36.26% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 17.02% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.77% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.23% |
| Edmonton Elks | <0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 91.28% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 4.56% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 3.98% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.18% |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 80.38% |
| BC Lions | 19.25% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.37% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | <0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 71.88% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 55.41% |
| BC Lions | 36.17% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 12.99% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 10.29% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 10.24% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 2.70% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.24% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.08% |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 38.69% |
| BC Lions | 28.11% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 20.74% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 6.41% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 3.76% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 1.98% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.27% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.02% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 108TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 39.93% |
| BC-Toronto | 25.76% |
| Winnipeg-Saskatchewan | 7.06% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 5.65% |
| BC-Saskatchewan | 4.44% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.