2024 Valero Texas Open odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions by model that’s called 10 majors

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The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has been the home of the Texas Open since 2010, and it will serve as the host again this week. While the course stretches more than 7,400 yards, the tight layout puts an emphasis on avoiding catastrophic mistakes that can bump golfers out of contention. It ranks inside the top-15 annually in scoring difficulty on the PGA Tour, but that has not stopped longshots from winning in recent years. Four of the last five winners have been 20-1 or longer in the 2024 Texas Open odds, including two wins from Corey Conners.

He is a 22-1 longshot on the PGA odds board this week, while Rory McIlroy is the 15-2 favorite. Which golfers should you back with your 2024 Texas Open bets when play begins Thursday? Before locking in your 2024 Texas Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2024 Valero Texas Open field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Valero Texas Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Texas Open 2024: Ludvig Aberg, a rising star and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn’t even crack the top five. Aberg has exploded on the scene, recording one win and two runner-up finishes in 23 PGA Tour events. He’s secured a top-10 finish in three of his last five starts, which includes an eighth-place showing at The Players Championship in March. 

However, Aberg has struggled with accuracy off the tee this season. The 24-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 98th in driving accuracy (57.59%). TPC San Antonio puts a premium on positioning off the tee, which doesn’t bode well for Aberg’s chances to finish on top of the leaderboard.

Another surprise: Byeong Hun An, a 33-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. An got off to a hot start this season when he finished fourth in The Sentry and second in the Sony Open in January.

He has only missed the cut in one tournament this year, and he added a third top-10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March. An ranks inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour in driving distance, GIR percentage and scoring average. He finished T6 at this event last season, and the model thinks he will be in contention again this weekend. See who else to pick here

How to make 2024 Valero Texas Open picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2024 Valero Texas Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Valero Texas Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Valero Texas Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 10 golf majors, including last year’s Masters and Open Championship.

2024 Valero Texas Open odds, field

See the full Valero Texas Open picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Rory McIlroy +750
Ludvig Åberg +1200
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Max Homa +1800
Jordan Spieth +1800
Collin Morikawa +2000
Corey Conners +2200
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Alex Noren +3000
Byeong Hun An +3300
Billy Horschel +3300
Brian Harman +3500
Russell Henley +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Harris English +4500
Eric Cole +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Keith Mitchell +5500
Akshay Bhatia +5500
Rickie Fowler +6000
Beau Hossler +6000
Tom Kim +6000
Nicolai Højgaard +6500
Aaron Rai +6500
Maverick McNealy +6500
Denny McCarthy +7500
Lucas Glover +8000
Taylor Montgomery +8000
Erik van Rooyen +8000
Austin Eckroat +10000
Sam Ryder +10000
Andrew Putnam +10000
Adam Schenk +11000
Davis Thompson +11000
Doug Ghim +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Brendon Todd +11000
Victor Perez +11000
Davis Riley +11000
Lee Hodges +12000
K.H. Lee +12000
Ryo Hisatsune +12000
Ben Griffin +12000
Matt Kuchar +12000
Mark Hubbard +12000
Thorbjørn Olesen +12000
Ryan Fox +12000
Cameron Champ +15000
Taylor Pendrith +15000
Seamus Power +15000
Alejandro Tosti +15000
Webb Simpson +15000
Andrew Novak +15000
Bud Cauley +15000
Jhonattan Vegas +15000
Matti Schmid +17000
Max Greyserman +17000
Charley Hoffman +17000
Kevin Yu +17000
Ryan Moore +17000
C.T. Pan +17000
Chesson Hadley +17000
Adam Svensson +17000
J.J. Spaun +20000
Garrick Higgo +20000
S.H. Kim +20000

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