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The 2021 BMW Championship is the second stop of the 2021 FedEx Cup Playoffs, and the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup Standings will head to Caves Valley Golf Club near Baltimore with hopes of earning a trip to East Lake Golf Club next week for a shot at a $15 million payday. Only the top 30 will advance and Tony Finau now leads the way after his playoff win last week at the Northern Trust. Finau bested Cameron Smith on the first extra hole to earn his first PGA Tour win in five years and he has assured himself a spot in the Tour Championship.
The latest 2021 BMW Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Finau at 25-1 as he makes the short turnaround after a Monday finish at the Northern Trust because of Hurricane Henri. Jon Rahm is the 13-2 favorite despite giving away a final-round lead to finish third last week just outside New York City. Before locking in your 2021 BMW Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it’s up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure’s best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.
In addition, McClure’s model was all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing.
This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 BMW Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 BMW Championship leaderboard.
The model’s top 2021 BMW Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the BMW Championship 2021: Dustin Johnson, the defending FedEx Cup champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. Johnson has been dominant at the BMW Championship over the years, winning this event in 2010 and 2016 and securing a runner-up finish in 2020.
However, the 24-time PGA Tour champion has struggled since winning the green jacket at the 2020 Masters. In fact, Johnson has missed the cut in two of his last three starts on the PGA Tour. Johnson’s poor form can be directly attributed to his inability to find the fairway off the tee. The 37-year-old is hitting just 58.18 percent of fairways off the tee this season, which ranks 135th on tour. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the BMW Championship 2021 field.
Another surprise: Paul Casey, a 35-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 44-year-old Englishman is currently 22nd in the Official World Golf Ranking but he’s got to make up some serious ground to qualify for the Tour Championship as he enters the BMW Championship sitting 54th in the FedEx Cup standings.
However, Casey has been playing exceptionally of late, with five top-10 finishes in his last eight worldwide starts. That included a T-4th finish at the 2021 PGA Championship and a T-7th finish at the 2021 U.S. Open. Casey’s outstanding ball-striking (second on the PGA Tour with 0.954 strokes gained per round on approach) should make him a serious factor this week as he eyes a top-five finish to get within striking distance of making the top 30.
How to make 2021 BMW Championship picks
The model is targeting three other golfers with 2021 BMW Championship odds of 25-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who will win the BMW Championship 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 BMW Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.
2021 BMW Championship odds
Jon Rahm 13-2
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Dustin Johnson 20-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Jordan Spieth 20-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Cameron Smith 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 25-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Bryson DeChambeau 28-1
Corey Conners 28-1
Rory McIlroy 28-1
Scottie Scheffler 28-1
Louis Oosthuizen 28-1
Viktor Hovland 28-1
Webb Simpson 33-1
Daniel Berger 35-1
Paul Casey 35-1
Abraham Ancer 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Shane Lowry 40-1
Joaquin Niemann 40-1
Harris English 40-1
Kevin Na 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Sungjae Im 50-1
Cameron Tringale 66-1
Jason Kokrak 66-1
Russell Henley 66-1
Erik Van Rooyen 70-1
Harold Varner 80-1
Si-Woo Kim 80-1
Alex Noren 80-1
Sergio Garcia 80-1
Cameron Davis 80-1
Kevin Streelman 80-1
Billy Horschel 80-1
Kevin Kisner 80-1
Keegan Bradley 80-1
Branden Grace 100-1
Maverick McNealy 100-1
Jhonattan Vegas 100-1
Brian Harman 100-1
Emiliano Grillo 100-1
Mackenzie Hughes 100-1
Sebastian Munoz 100-1
Stewart Cink 100-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1
Cameron Champ 100-1
Marc Leishman 125-1
Lee Westwood 125-1
Max Homa 125-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Phil Mickelson 125-1
Carlos Ortiz 125-1
Ryan Palmer 125-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Talor Gooch 150-1
Harry Higgs 150-1
Aaron Wise 150-1
Tom Hoge 150-1
Chris Kirk 150-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Patton Kizzire 200-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 200-1
Robert Streb 250-1
Hudson Swafford 250-1
Matt Jones 250-1