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Keegan Bradley was able to overcome the Snake Pit en route to a bogey-free round of 7-under 64. Bradley made easy work of the difficult finishing stretch, making birdie on two of his final three holes. He’s no stranger to starting hot at the Valspar Championship. In 2016, he co-led after Round 1, only to implode the next day and eventually missing the cut.
I don’t expect that to be the case this year as Bradley looked in complete control of his game on Thursday. He will carry a two-stroke lead heading into the second round, but as we all know, it’s always difficult to follow up a great round with another one.
While Bradley stormed the morning wave, the afternoon was filled with a star-studded cast. Justin Thomas (-2) and Dustin Johnson (E) headlined the featured groups, but Max Homa (-5), Joaquin Niemann (-3), Sungjae Im (-3), and Viktor Hovland (-2) all made their fair share of noise as well.
Each had their ups, each had their downs, but outside of Johnson, all are well positioned heading into the second round. Of the bunch, Thomas provides the most intrigue. He struck the ball beautifully, gaining 3.93 strokes ball-striking, only for his putter to let him down.
That seems to be a common theme for the Players champion, but if he is able to figure that club out moving forward, he is more than capable of winning this tournament. The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook are keen to this as well as they currently have Thomas priced at +1100, despite him sitting 5-strokes behind Bradley.
Updated Odds (via PointsBet):
+1000: Keegan Bradley
+1100: Justin Thomas
+1400: Abraham Ancer, Emiliano Grillo
+1600: Sungjae Im, Jason Kokrak, Max Homa
+1800: Paul Casey
+2000: Joaquin Niemann
+2200: Viktor Hovland
+2500: Dustin Johnson
+2800: Ryan Moore
+3300: Patton Kizzire, Sam Burns
+4000: Corey Conners, Patrick Reed
+5000: Charley Hoffman, Kevin Na
Round 2 Plays:
Paul Casey (+124) over Jason Kokrak and Gary Woodland
I already have Casey in a full-tournament head-to-head matchup, so I’ll essentially be doubling down on the two-time defending champion. There were a lot of positives to take out of Casey’s first round. The typical ball-striking that Casey is known for was alive and well. It was his putter that didn’t get the job done. Despite an uncooperative putter, he was still able to turn in a round of 3-under 68.
As for the other two, if Woodland plays anything like he did in Round 1, he will be an afterthought. It was an ugly front-nine for the 2011 Valspar champion as he turned in 6-over 41. He was able to right the ship on his back-nine, but nevertheless the play was concerning.
Kokrak provides the greater threat to Casey in this three-ball. However, his iron play was not sharp on Thursday. In Round 1, he was slightly negative in Strokes Gained: Approach, yet still shot 4-under 67. The putter carried the load as he gained three-strokes with the flat stick. Kokrak is a much-improved putter this year, but I expect some regression on the greens, giving way to Casey in this one.
Doug Ghim (+159) over Adam Hadwin and Sam Ryder
There wasn’t a whole lot of good that came out of this group on Thursday. Ryder and Ghim both turned in rounds of 1-over 72, while Hadwin finished one-stroke back at 2-over. But when sifting through their statistics for the day, you get a clearer picture of what transpired.
Ghim was his normal self. Hitting greens, giving himself birdie chances, only for them to fall by the wayside time and time again. When he did miss a green, his chipping did him no favors. I’d expect his short game (chipping and putting) to improve slightly in Round 2, thus resulting in a better score.
Hadwin and Ryder weren’t sharp at all as they struggled throughout the bag. Neither were great around-the-green nor with their irons. That’s a combination that I am not comfortable backing, especially considering Hadwin is the slight favorite in this three-ball. Instead, I’ll go with Ghim who has better ball-striking numbers and better odds.
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