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When the buzzer sounded on North Carolina‘s loss at Virginia Tech on Sunday afternoon, the Tar Heels made history. They became the first preseason No. 1 team to lose four straight games.
Less than 24 hours later, when the updated AP poll was released, they were given another dubious distinction: the fastest preseason No. 1 team to drop completely out of the top 25. Carolina fell out of the rankings a full 10 weeks quicker than 2019-20 Michigan State.
We can debate the merits of whether North Carolina should have been the preseason No. 1 another time, but the fact remains, this is a team that returned four starters from a squad that led Kansas by 15 points at halftime of the 2022 national championship game. Eight months later, the Tar Heels are a long way from becoming that team again.
So what’s going on with Hubert Davis’ team? We asked a handful of opposing coaches and coaches who have scouted Carolina this season in an attempt to figure it out.
Where’s the chemistry?
While none of them is in the locker room to see it firsthand, every coach immediately mentioned a visible lack of chemistry Carolina is playing with right now.
“It’s obvious there’s turmoil and strife,” one coach said.
“It’s a lot of chemistry issues, not a lot of X’s and O’s,” another said.
Part of the reason the Tar Heels had so much success in last season’s NCAA tournament was that the backcourt of Caleb Love and R.J. Davis shared playmaking and shot-creation roles down the stretch. They seemed to have figured something out over the final few games of the 2021-22 season, and were both terrific. Love averaged 18.8 points, while Davis put up 14.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists in the tournament. Along with those two, Armando Bacot got consistent touches in good positions and was able to dominate the paint.
Whatever worked down the stretch hasn’t carried over to this season, though, especially when it comes to sharing the ball and playing together offensively.
“Four out of five possessions, Love takes a shot or Davis dribbles around. Then Bacot gets a touch,” one coach said. “It seems like they’re just taking turns.”
“They don’t go to Bacot enough; they expect him to get garbage stuff. He doesn’t post hard because he knows they’re not looking for him,” another added. “They don’t seem to be playing with the same level of care for whatever reason.”
The expectations with which Carolina entered the season stemmed mostly from the fact that four starters returned from that Final Four team. But it’s not as if the Tar Heels banded together and returned simply to make one more run at a title — none of the four were likely to be drafted, and another season in college making NIL money was a great alternative. There’s a clear lack of urgency at both ends of the floor and on the glass. When Carolina turned its 2021-22 season around, much of it came on the defensive end. The Tar Heels ranked No. 13 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at BartTorvik.com over the final 21 games last season. Right now, they’re No. 92.
0:32
Caleb Grill ties the score with a deep 3-pointer, then sinks the go-ahead jump shot to lead Iowa State to an upset victory over No. 1 UNC.
“I watched them against Iowa State and when Caleb Grill had it going, they should’ve been more intentional to shut him off. He doesn’t really dribble. Switch, deny him the ball. That didn’t really happen,” one coach said. “They need to be motherf—–s.”
One of the tentpoles of Carolina under Roy Williams was its dominance on the offensive glass. The Tar Heels ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage in all but one year during his tenure, grabbing at least 35% of their misses in all but that one season. Through one month of 2022-23, they’re down at No. 188 at KenPom, rebounding only 28.6% of their misses.
“Hubert is begging them to play hard,” one coach said. “Look at their offensive rebounding numbers, it’s not what Carolina used to be. Bacot is the only one who does it.”
3-point struggles leading to stagnant offense
Carolina is currently shooting its lowest percentage from 3-point range since the Dean Smith era, making just 29.2% of its attempts from behind the arc. It ranks an astonishingly low No. 307 nationally.
Some of this stems from the loss of Brady Manek, who we’ll get to shortly. But the Tar Heels’ shot-makers simply aren’t making shots. Love, who shot 36% from 3 last season, is down to 26.2%. Davis, who made 36.7% a year ago, is coincidentally also down at exactly 26.2%.
“It changes everything,” one coach who scouted Carolina this season and last season said. “We know Love and Davis aren’t passing. After a handoff or ball-screen, just hang on. Make them pass it. They don’t want to pass it. And they’re not shooting the ball great, [Pete] Nance isn’t shooting the ball great.”
Love and Davis are going to snap out of their slumps at some point, but it hasn’t happened yet and the guards have not slowed down their attempts.
“The shots Love took in the Alabama game, he might as well just drop-kick the ball at the rim and say f— it,” an opposing coach said. “Teams that aren’t great shooting teams shouldn’t hunt those shots early in the clock, but they shoot it like they’re the Splash Brothers.”
Missing Manek
The one big personnel change from 2021-22 is the departure of Manek, whom Davis replaced with Northwestern transfer Pete Nance. On paper, the two aren’t all that different. Manek was 6-foot-9, 230 pounds. Nance is 6-foot-11, 230 pounds. Manek made 40.3% of his 3s last season in Chapel Hill. Nance made 45.2% of his 3s last season at Northwestern.
In reality, it hasn’t been a seamless transition. Manek was a catalyst for the Tar Heels’ late-season turnaround, at both ends of the floor, and averaged 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds in the NCAA tournament while shooting 47.8% from 3.
“It’s completely different,” said one opposing coach. “They’re running some of the same stuff. But Nance isn’t the shooter Manek was. Manek gave you so much fear.”
“Manek got on the glass, tapped stuff out. Nance isn’t doing that. He doesn’t really impact the game the same way,” another coach who scouted them last season and this season said. “One of the first things we said when watching Nance was, that’s not Brady Manek. He scared us. If he was open, it was a bucket. Nance ain’t that way.”
One ACC coach also said Manek had more of an edge and was a vocal leader, letting his teammates know if they missed an open pass or were lazy defensively.
“Manek was not a good defender but he was still physical. Nance isn’t as physical,” he said. “You can’t just insert him into that role. That 4 spot is very important.”
Lack of depth behind Bacot
Carolina wasn’t deep last season, ranking No. 348 in the country in bench minutes, according to KenPom. And Hubert Davis only used six players for more than two minutes in the national championship game.
With the arrival of three ESPN 100 recruits and a young group of role players with another year under their belt, Davis expected to utilize his bench more. Yet the Tar Heels are currently down at No. 359 in bench minutes. The difference between the two seasons is they’ve lacked any sort of presence when Bacot needs a break or gets into foul trouble; last season, Manek had the physicality to moonlight at the 5 if necessary.
“Their depth is a concern,” one coach said. “You want it to be a physical game, a high-foul game, make them expend a lot of energy. Nance isn’t the toughest, so if you go at Bacot, is he going to be able to be as effective at the other end or on the offensive boards? If you’re going to play 30-something minutes as a center, score offensively, protect the rim — that’s not even humanly possible. There’s nobody behind him.”
Bacot missed the loss to Virginia Tech, with Davis opting to move Nance to the 5 and slide Puff Johnson into the starting lineup. Tyler Nickel, 6-7 freshman forward, also played 25 minutes — two fewer than the 27 total minutes he played in the season’s first eight games. Tech’s Justyn Mutts responded by putting up one of the best games of his career: 27 points, 11 rebounds. The game prior, Indiana‘s Trayce Jackson-Davis, had 21 points and 10 rebounds when Bacot and Nance both dealt with foul trouble.
And now sophomore guard D’Marco Dunn, who had carved out a consistent bench role on the perimeter, is out for several weeks with a broken hand.
Good news should be coming soon, however. Top-50 recruit Jalen Washington seems to be nearing a return after tearing his ACL two summers ago.
“Jalen Washington coming back is going to be a huge plus for them,” an ACC coach said. “Just to have another big man.”
Can it be fixed?
Carolina wasn’t exactly setting the world alight for most of last season. The Tar Heels struggled in a couple wins over mid-majors early and got battered by nearly every good team they faced for the first three months of 2021-22.
But it’s also the same team that won 17 of its final 21 games and made a run to the national championship game. This is not a roster bereft of talent by any stretch. There are eight former ESPN 100 prospects, two former five-star prospects and Nance was considered one of the most sought-after transfers in the portal.
Also, it’s early December. We’re more than three months from Selection Sunday.
“They were here before,” one coach said. “They lost at home to a really bad Pittsburgh team. They have good players. They’ve got to figure out some things offensively, but I think they’ll figure it out.”
One opposing coach said the biggest thing moving forward is regrouping mentally. The loss to Iowa State after a career night from Grill was one thing. But then they had the draining four-overtime loss to Alabama — only to have to turn around three days later and play Indiana on the road. Then came the loss to Virginia Tech without Bacot, their best player.
It’s just snowballing now.
“Once you lose the second, it’s easier to lose a third time and a fourth time,” he said. “They need to get guys doing what they do well. Not shooting bad shots. Not over dribbling. Not being a d—. They can do anything they want if they just decided to do it. A lot of it is ego. It might be harder to reconnect as that team now that their issues have been exposed.
“Is Love willing to shoot 12 times a game? Can they get Bacot 15 post touches? Are they going to play to their strengths or just keep doing what they want?”