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Rachel Doerrie, ESPN
It feels to some that the NHL preseason has dragged on far too long, and teams have lost key players to injury. Drew Doughty, Patrik Laine and John Tavares have all been knocked out of games, with Doughty and Laine expected to miss regular-season action.
Injuries open opportunities for other players to have an increased role and positively impact their teams. But there are quite a few candidates for major leaps this season who are worth keeping an eye on, whether it’s due to a teammate’s injury or other reasons.
A major leap does not always mean just offensive production. It can mean an elevated role at even strength, more special teams time, and exposure to tougher matchups.
The following list includes players who had good seasons in 2023-24 but are expected to take another step forward in their development. In fact, most of the players featured on the list are not breaking out, but merely expected to take another major step to becoming a star in the NHL. As for those projected to take a step back, we covered them here.
Yes, Connor Bedard had 61 points in his rookie season, winning the Calder Trophy. And yes, he is on this list. Why? He’s expected to produce 30% more in his sophomore season. He has healthy wingers who have the talent to make plays, with Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen all as possibilities.
He was tracking toward 70-plus points last season prior to injury, and the Blackhawks are expected to give him every opportunity to be their offensive conductor in 2024-25. Nobody should be surprised if Bedard puts up 35 goals and 80 points this season. Adding talented wingers to the lineup and a fully healthy season, Bedard could easily find himself in point-per-game territory.
He’s currently on the bubble of Canada’s 4 Nations Faceoff roster, but he will be an easy selection if he makes that leap in the early portion of this season.
Stop me if you’d heard this before: The Dallas Stars are expected to have a young players make key contributions this season.
Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, Logan Stankoven … the list goes on. Every season, it feels like a Star makes the preseason list of players ready for a leap — a testament to the organization’s brilliant drafting and development.
Bourque is expected to play in the middle of the lineup with Stankoven and one of Jamie Benn or Mason Marchment. Dallas has three lines capable of producing offense, and Bourque figures to play a key secondary scoring role. After 77 points in the AHL last season, Bourque is primed to take advantage of easier matchups.
Expect him to have similar output as Johnston’s rookie season (41 points) and see an increased role as the season progresses.
The Ducks took an interesting approach with Carlsson in his rookie season, opting to manage his workload. The sophomore is expected to play a full season this time around, alongside rookie Cutter Gauthier on the second line. With a major size advantage on the line (Alex Killorn is expected to be the third member), the trio should have no problem punishing teams on the forecheck, creating off the cycle and drawing penalties.
Carlsson is also expected to play on the top power-play unit, where he can take advantage of his offensive tool kit.
In a full season, Carlsson is projected for around 70 points. The combination of speed, skill and physical strength makes Carlsson difficult to shut down. Pairing him with Gauthier — who is a versatile offensive threat — should give the Ducks two lines capable of producing. While the Ducks are not expected to be in playoff contention this season, Carlsson is expected to drive the second line and may ascend to a top-line role at different points.
Clarke was a candidate for this list even prior to Drew Doughty‘s injury.
He is the best option to quarterback the power play in Los Angeles, one that features the talents of Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala and Quinton Byfield. Clarke showed flashes of brilliance in 16 games with the Kings last season, and is clearly the best offensive option on the blue line while Doughty is out.
Defenders take longer to develop, and Clarke is no different. With 46 points in 50 AHL games last season, he took a major step forward in his development. He is ready for NHL playing time and the opportunity to step right into a power-play role will allow him to find his offensive footing in the NHL.
Expect Clarke to average close to 20 minutes of ice time per game with Doughty out, and if he plays well, to be a constant member of the top four in Los Angeles for the entire season.
New city, new contract — it’s all coming up Guenther heading into 2024-25.
Utah fans are going to have a lot of fun watching their young team, and Guenther is expected to be a major part of that. Utah is my sleeper pick to make the playoffs this season, and if that is to happen, Guenther needs a big season. Not only is he one of the best young shooters in the league, but his playmaking is also underrated. With an expected role as the shooter on the top power-play unit, Guenther is expected to far surpass last season’s total of 35 points in 45 games.
There is a distinct possibility that Guenther scores 30 goals and close to 70 points. The combination of Logan Cooley and Guenther will be a fun one all season. Cooley’s ability to create and find teammates in open space fits perfectly with Guenther’s scoring touch. Cooley has great hands to finish plays, and with Guenther’s underrated playmaking, the two should form one of the NHL’s most entertaining young duos.
Knies is widely expected to feature alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on Toronto’s top line this season. He was easily one of Toronto’s best playoff players last spring, showcasing his talents and potential two-way ability. He’s earned the chance to play on both special teams, as well as an extended look on the top line. Knies has all the tools to be an excellent puck retrieval player, net-front presence and scoring threat off the rush. Those skills complement Matthews and Marner very well.
Knies is expected to produce around 56 points this season, a nearly 60% increase over last season’s 35-point output. It’s conceivable that he produces more than that, and he is more likely to produce 50-plus points than below 40.
Defensively, Knies brings a reliable package to penalty kill and gives the Leafs reliable two-way players at all three positions on the top line. Expect Knies’ ice time to increase by 3-4 minutes per game, giving him plenty of opportunity to make an impact on both sides of the puck.
A new contract in tow, and hopefully a coach that uses him properly. If Perfetti is given regular power-play opportunities and top-six even-strength minutes, expect his production to take off. If Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers play together on the second line, there is a real chance Perfetti cracks the 60-point threshold, a 50% increase over last season’s output.
The diminutive young player has been a lightning rod in Winnipeg, just like linemate Ehlers. Combining the two of them and letting them fly could result in a production explosion for both players. Perfetti is a well-rounded offensive player who will benefit from Ehlers’ puck-carrying abilities. Finding open space to make the best of catch-and-shoot opportunities is a scheme in which Perfetti should thrive.
Confidence has been a major issue, given that Perfetti bounced in and out of the lineup and up and down the roster. Consistency is key, and if Perfetti gets consistent opportunities to produce offensively, he will not make as many scared mistakes, maximizing his talents.
Slafkovsky was approaching bust territory until the calendar turned to 2024. Fast forward to this preseason, and my model projects him to be nearly a point-per-game player in 2024-25. After a tale of two seasons in 2023-24, Slafkovsky will surely garner more defensive attention this season. His chemistry with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield was brilliant to watch after the All-Star break, and should continue into this campaign.
Undoubtedly, the increased difficulty of the matchups will require adjustments, but top players find ways to break through.
Losing Laine hurts Montreal’s chances, but opens more offensive opportunities for Slafkovsky to use his strength and skill. With more even strength and power-play ice time over the duration of the season, Slafkovsky should have a very productive campaign on Montreal’s top line.