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Phil Mickelson will take a two-stroke lead into the second round of the Wells Fargo Championship. Yes, you read that correctly, the 50-year-old Champions Tour stalworth (according to Joel Dahmen) was near perfect on Thursday, converting 8 birdies to go along with a lone bogey. It was in the middle of his round that Mickelson was able to find a different gear.
Starting his day on the back-nine, Mickelson was even-par through his first four holes. He would then go on to birdie five of his next six holes. This stretch of golf included kick-in birdies at both the difficult 16th and 18th holes. From there, Mickelson was on cruise control until he needed to summon his trusty short-game on the final three holes. Mickelson converted two more birdie opportunities on the par-5 7th and the short par-4 8th before saving par on his last hole.
All in all, it was vintage Lefty and added up to a 7-under 64. You may be wondering what the key factor was in Mickelson’s sudden resurgence. The answer is his focus. After missing the cut at the Valspar Championship, Mickelson was very open to the media about losing focus during parts of his rounds. He had no problem with that today, but it will be something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.
As for the rest of the field, there are plenty of players chomping at the bit. Fresh off a Sunday disappointment, Keegan Bradley was at it again, carding a 5-under 67 to trail by two. He sits alongside Kyoung-Hoon Lee who rode a scorching hot putter to the 5-under number as well. Lee led the field in Round 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting, boasting +6.04 strokes gained on the greens.
Despite the two-stroke lead, the oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook do not have Mickelson as the favorite to win this thing. That honor goes to world No. 2 Justin Thomas who is currently 5-strokes back and is listed at +900. With winds expected to freshen tomorrow afternoon, I believe there may be some value in targeting those who are due to tee-off in the morning wave.
Updated Odds (via PointsBet):
+900: Justin Thomas
+1100: Phil Mickelson
+1200: Keegan Bradley
+1400: Bryson DeChambeau
+1500: Viktor Hovland
+1800: Tommy Fleetwood
+2000: Brian Harman, Corey Conners
+2200: Sungjae Im
+2500: Abraham Ancer
+3000: Joel Dahmen
+3300: Gary Woodland
+4000: Keith Mitchell, Kyoung-Hoon Lee
+5000: Kyle Stanley, Luke List, Matt Jones, Matt Wallace, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris
+6000: Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele
Joaquin Niemann (+7000 to win):
Sitting just seven-strokes behind Mickelson, Niemann is hardly out of this tournament. I admit, I was high on Niemann pre-tournament and I am still high on him now. The ball-striking was there for the young Chilean, especially from off-the-tee, finishing 2nd in SG: Off-the-tee in Round 1. That should only propel him forward as we move further into the week. The question that we need to inevitably address is his short-game.
The irons weren’t far behind the driver, having gained 1.18 SG: Approach, but the chipping and putting is where we will need to see a serious uptick from Niemann. Leading into this week, it had been much improved, so I am hoping that form will come to fruition over the next three rounds.
I never love to add an outright before the cut, but at +7000, I’m willing to take a risk on the unknown of Niemann’s short-game. He looked helpless at times today, but he has shown in the past that he can be more than capable on and around the greens.
J.T. Poston (+172) over Sebastian Munoz and Adam Long:
It’s not often that you’ll see Poston lose strokes putting, but that’s exactly what he did on Thursday. Despite a round of 1-over par 72, I am optimistic about Poston going into Round 2. His round wasn’t that far way from being under-par. Outside of a double-bogey on the 3rd and a sloppy three-putt on the 13th, it was quite solid. Poston gained 1.51 strokes ball-striking, so I’ll take those numbers in stride and hope that his putting can improve tomorrow.
As for Munoz and Long, both struggled as indicated by their scores of 2-over par and 6-over par. What stood out to me is that both players actually gained strokes putting, despite their scores. That just goes to show you how poorly they struck the ball.
Long finished the day losing more than 5.5 strokes tee-to-green, the vast majority of which can be contributed to his irons. Munoz on the other hand was poor throughout his entire bag. I wouldn’t be confident backing him as the favorite of this three-ball, so instead I’ll ride with Poston who is primed for a nice round tomorrow.
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