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It looked like the safest game of the early slate. Eagles at Saints, total set at 49.5. Yards projected, points expected. Settle in for three hours and watch them score.
Of course, it’s a snow globe league. Variance stings. Some results aren’t satisfying, and some results don’t make a lot of sense.
The Eagles escaped with the 15-12 victory Sunday, and that was a fair result. Philadelphia dominated the game, collecting 460 yards to 219 for the Saints. It’s astounding this match was in doubt for three hours.
At least the production was steered to most of the key fantasy players. Saquon Barkley scored both Philly touchdowns and rumbled for 147 yards on the ground, making up for his late-game drop Monday against the Falcons. Barkley also had four short receptions and a two-point conversion run.
It’s only an hour and a half from Giants HQ to Eagles HQ, but Barkley’s living in a completely different universe in 2024. He was comfortably seated as the RB1 this week as we went to press.
Although Jalen Hurts threw for 311 yards, he lost a fumble, threw a pick, took four sacks and didn’t account for a touchdown. He didn’t run much either, limited to 25 yards. Hurts won’t be a top-12 fantasy QB this week. The Eagles were able to dust off Dallas Goedert and unleash him for a shocking 10-170-0 line (11 targets), but it hurt to lose DeVonta Smith (concussion) in the midst of a productive game in the second half. The Philadelphia passing attack isn’t the same without A.J. Brown, and there would be bottom-out potential if both Brown and Smith missed time together.
Hey, at least the Eagles won the game. The New Orleans offense, NFL darlings through two weeks, came crashing down to earth. The Saints managed just 12 first downs and struggled to produce chunk plays.
The Saints hitched their wagon to Alvin Kamara, giving him 26 carries and three receptions. He didn’t get in the end zone, but 127 total yards make for a credible fantasy game. Keep an eye on the New Orleans offensive line, which was dinged up during this loss. Chris Olave secured all six of his targets, good for 86 yards and a touchdown. Score one for all of America, as Olave was a universal recommendation in the fantasy world this week.
Rashid Shaheed went catchless on his five targets, although one of them was a near-touchdown, a pass slightly underthrown by Derek Carr. It was that type of day for Carr, who completed just 14-for-25 passes for 142 yards, a measly 5.7 per attempt. After two weeks of pinball, the Saints went tilt in this matchup.
Both teams could be in line for fun performances in Week 4 — the Saints travel to Atlanta, while the Eagles visit the Buccaneers. Fun matchups on paper, but nothing is ever guaranteed in this number-chasing game we play.
As for some of the other early-window booms and busts:
Colts lean on Taylor as Richardson struggles again
Jonathan Taylor was a bit player in the Week 2 loss at Green Bay, but the Colts got it right Sunday, Taylor collected 23 carries for 110 yards and two touchdowns, shouldering the offense on a day where Anthony Richardson struggled mightily (two picks, just 24 rushing yards). The Colts threw just 20 passes and all of their wideouts were fantasy disappointments; nobody had more than five targets.
Darnold continues redemption story
At the beginning of the year, we just wanted Sam Darnold to play well so we could roster Justin Jefferson and feel great about it. But Darnold looks like a fantasy star all by himself. Darnold tossed four touchdowns and didn’t have a turnover as the Vikings romped over the Texans. Jefferson (6-81-1) had the best of it, but Aaron Jones, Jalen Nailor and Johnny Mundt also caught scoring tosses.
Stroud quiet in loss
C.J. Stroud managed 6.9 YPA on the other side, but the Houston offense was held back by sacks (four) and interceptions (two). And give it up for Minnesota DC Brian Flores, who knows what he’s doing. At least the Houston passing game kept things centered on the stars, as Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell combined for 28 targets, 19 catches and 242 yards. Cam Akers did little as a running back streamer, but did grab some deodorant from a short touchdown catch.
Willis gets his revenge
Coaching matters, man. Kevin O’Connell is doing a wonderful job with Darnold in Minnesota, and how Matt LaFleur’s two-week tutelage of Malik Willis? The Packers easily won at Tennessee and Willis was sharp against his former team, competing 13-of-19 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown (that’s 10.6 YPA) while also rushing for 73 yards and a score.
Willis just joined the Packers right before the season — this is miraculous.
Hopkins lone bright spot for Titans
Tony Pollard was bottled up by the Green Bay defense (29 total yards), but DeAndre Hopkins finally charted in the fresh season (6-73-1). Will Levis continues to make constant mistakes, throwing two picks and taking eight sacks.
Speed Round
• Amari Cooper started with two agonizing games, a combination of his own drops and several Deshaun Watson misfires. Things got somewhat straightened out in Week 3 — Cooper had his two touchdowns, but Watson looked awful again.
Cooper managers are dying to see what anyone else could do with this offense (heck, off-the-couch Joe Flacco was last year’s hero), but Watson’s contract and enormous acquisition cost (not a proud look for one of the NFL’s “Moneyball” franchises) are blocking the turnstile. Watson shouldn’t be unbenchable, but Cleveland seems to feel that way.
• Every time I turn on the Tampa Bay tape, Bucky Irving is making a splashy play and Rachaad White is running in mud. Perhaps there will be more incentive to get Irving a bigger role, given that Tampa Bay finally lost a game. Winning teams are less likely to be proactive with personal changes, even when the usage is fundamentally flawed.
• There’s not much to see in the Denver backfield, with three runners sharing work, not to mention the presence of mobile quarterback Bo Nix. But at least Nix showed improvement after doing little in his first two starts. We’d like to see Courtland Sutton stay afloat.
• Many if not most teams are in trouble when backup quarterbacks have to start, but Miami bottomed out with Skylar Thompson (and later Tim Boyle) working at Seattle. The Dolphins were so hopeless, Seattle’s fantasy fortunes cratered as a result — once the Seahawks raced ahead 17-3 in the first quarter, the hosts could basically play a conversative offense the rest of the way.
With Tua Tagovailoa out indefinitely, Miami needs to make some phone calls this week. Maybe Ryan Tannehill is an option. Heck, maybe there’s a possible trade worth exploring.
• If D’Andre Swift couldn’t do it against the Colts, when is it going to happen? The Chicago offensive line did him no favors, but perhaps Roschon Johnson is a better fit for the current Bears scheme. Johnson certainly was the better player in Week 3.
• Malik Nabers smashed Washington’s secondary last week, but everyone does that to Washington. Running amok against a strong Cleveland defense is something entirely different. For all the honors thrown at the feet of Marvin Harrison Jr., perhaps Nabers should have been the first wideout taken from this (likely) historical class.
• The Steelers have coached Justin Fields up, at least in real life. It’s choking out the Fields fantasy value, but all this team wants is a quarterback who can protect the ball and avoid sacks. Fields was dropped 99 times in his last 28 Chicago games. He’s only taken two sacks in each of the first three weeks, all wins. Pittsburgh has no need to fix what is not broken; Russell Wilson should remain on the bench indefinitely.
• For the second straight week the Lions didn’t give us the pinball game we expected, and maybe this is more trend than fluke. Detroit, after all, has two dynamic running backs and the best offensive line in the league.
The flow of last week’s game forced Jared Goff to throw 55 passes, but the wins over the Rams and Cardinals (when Goff threw 28 and 23 passes, respectively) probably represent the type of football Dan Campbell would prefer to play. Detroit ran down LA’s throat in the season opener, and the Cardinals had no answer for this power running game, either.
• Rashee Rice’s late-season run last year was the genie escaping the bottle. After Sunday’s 12-110-1 detonation, he’s now on a pace for a 136-1689-11 season. That’s an unrealistic projection to put on most receivers, but when appraising the Kansas City passing game, we must accept that Rice is the entree right now, everyone else a mere appetizer.
• Obviously the Panthers gave Bryce Young a vote of confidence Sunday morning because what else are they going to say? And then Andy Dalton played three clean hours of football in a no-doubt upset of the Raiders, lifting Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard and even Adam Thielen (before an unfortunate injury) in the process.
Dave Canales has an obligation to his locker room; when one player is clearly this much better than the presumed starter, the right guy needs to start. Sure, at some point the Panthers probably have to throw Young back into the fire strictly for observation purposes. But so long as Dalton stays healthy and his play is anywhere from competent to better, Carolina needs to respect the roster and use the best guy.
• Lamar Jackson only had 17 dropbacks so there weren’t many routes to be had, but Mark Andrews running just six of them is alarming. Isaiah Likely had a modest 11; both players drew one target.
Obviously the Ravens ran all over Dallas and there was no reason to move away from it, but it’s never surprising when a name receiver (you can add Zay Flowers into this mix) has a quiet game for the Ravens. Baltimore is always one of the principle contenders in the AFC, but it’s nonetheless a knuckleball offense.
• I’m still coming down from the stirring Rams comeback over the Niners. Man, Sean McVay coached his tail off, scheming without about half of his regular offense. And good lord, Jauan Jennings was incredible. Imagine having a talent like Jennings and only unveiling him when injuries force you. I thought I was watching peak Terrell Owens for three hours. The NFL is filled with uber-talented players just waiting for their opportunity to shine.