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Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday evening. Both teams are aiming to improve their playoff position in the Western Conference. The Warriors are 31-30 this season after seven wins in the last nine games. Dallas (33-27) enters on the second night of a back-to-back after losing to Sacramento 113-106 on Monday.
Tip-off is at 9:30 p.m. ET in San Francisco. William Hill Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 1.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 225.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,400 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up over $1,400 on its top-rated picks this season and entered Week 19 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 97-60 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Mavs vs. Warriors:
- Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -1.5
- Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 225.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -120, Mavericks +100
- DAL: The Mavericks are 5-7 against the spread on back-to-backs
- GSW: The Warriors are 17-12 against the spread in home games
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas has one of the NBA’s best players in Doncic, with the third-year superstar buoying one of the most dynamic offenses in the NBA. The Mavericks are scoring at a top-five level since the All-Star break, averaging almost 1.16 points per possession, and that harkens back to their No. 1 offense from the 2019-20 season. Rick Carlisle’s team is also one of the best 2-point shooting squads in the NBA, connecting on more than 55 percent of its shots inside the arc. The Mavericks are not elite at creating free throw attempts, but the Warriors are the league’s second-worst team in preventing opponents from generating shots at the charity stripe.
Defensively, Dallas ranks in the top 10 in both 2-point shooting allowed (52 percent) and assists allowed (22 per game). The Mavericks can also take advantage of Golden State’s weaknesses, especially with the Warriors ranking last in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (22.4 percent).
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State is an excellent defensive team, setting the pace for its overall success. The Warriors are No. 6 in the NBA in defensive rating, giving up only 109.6 points per 100 possessions, and they have a top-five mark in shooting efficiency allowed. They give up a 2-point shooting mark of 51.2 percent, No. 4 in the NBA, and Golden State’s opponents generate only 24.0 assists per game. Dallas is a bottom-five team in assist creation, and the Warriors are also a top-10 team in creating turnovers.
On the opposite side, Golden State can play freely against a Mavericks team that is dead-last in steals and a bottom-10 team in blocked shots. The Warriors also lead the NBA in assists, generating 27.4 per game, and they are No. 6 in 3-pointers, making 14.1 per game. Golden State is a top-10 team in both effective field goal percentage (54.5 percent) and true shooting percentage (57.8 percent), and Dallas is not an elite defensive group.
How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 234 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a roll on NBA picks.