Stay? Go? How these players’ NBA decisions will affect their college programs

The NCAA moving up the transfer portal deadline to May 1 has allowed for college basketball rosters to develop over the past few weeks, with the majority of big programs needing just one or two more pieces to complete their 2024-25 groups. But we’re not quite ready to close the door on player movement for the spring.

In one week, we’ll hit the next big deadline on the offseason calendar: May 29, the last day for student-athletes to withdraw their names from the NBA draft and return to college for another season.

Nearly 140 college players were early-entry candidates for the 2024 NBA draft. While plenty have withdrawn their names or are widely expected to do so, several could go either way.

Two players who say they won’t return: North Carolina‘s Harrison Ingram and Clemson‘s PJ Hall. Ingram told reporters at the NBA combine that he’s “staying in” the draft, while Hall said he’s “closed the door” on his college career.

Additionally, a dozen uncommitted players in ESPN’s top 100 transfer rankings are still deciding whether — and where — they will play in college next season: Cam Christie, Coleman Hawkins, JT Toppin, Jamir Watkins, Jaylen Wells, Jaxson Robinson, Wooga Poplar, Arthur Kaluma, Chaz Lanier, Miles Kelly, Trevon Brazile and Ugonna Onyenso. All but Kelly were invited to either the NBA draft combine or the G League Elite Camp.

Which programs will be most impacted by their players’ decisions to stay for another season or leave for the professional ranks? Let’s take a look.

Sears would likely want to stay in the NBA draft. He participated in the NBA draft combine, but he’s ranked No. 79 in ESPN’s top 100 and isn’t a lock to be selected. If he returns to Tuscaloosa, Nate Oats’ team would have a real argument to be the preseason No. 1 team. Sears was an All-American and first-team All-SEC selection last season after averaging 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists, while shooting 43.6% from 3-point range. The 6-foot-1 guard put up 24.2 points in five NCAA tournament games. On a side note, teammate Jarin Stevenson was invited to the G League Elite Camp but should return to school.

A return to Storrs would really ramp up the three-peat talk surrounding the Huskies. The 6-foot-8 forward was a key piece of the Huskies’ back-to-back national championships and started 77 games over the past two seasons. He’s a matchup problem due to his ability to step out and consistently make 3s, but has also expanded his game to become more aggressive going to the rim. Karaban was one of five UConn players to attend the combine and is ranked No. 42 in ESPN’s mock draft. Dan Hurley has rising sophomore Jaylin Stewart ready to step up, but UConn would be a preseason top five team with Karaban in the fold.

Arizona sits at No. 10 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early top 25 rankings as it waits for a decision from Love. He had a terrific senior season after transferring from North Carolina, winning Pac-12 Player of the Year honors and establishing himself as an All-American after averaging 18.0 points. Tommy Lloyd has prepared for life without Love, landing Campbell transfer Anthony Dell’Orso and top 25 recruit Joson Sanon, but would likely go into the portal for another wing if Love decided to stay in the draft. He didn’t get selected for the combine after playing at the G League Elite Camp and isn’t ranked in ESPN’s top 100.

Clayton cemented himself as a solid scorer last season, averaging 17.6 points after transferring from Iona. He earned second-team All-SEC honors and went off for 33 points in the NCAA tournament against Colorado. Clayton is ranked just inside ESPN’s top 100 and attended the G League Elite Camp. If he returns to Gainesville, Todd Golden’s team is a surefire top 20 group. The Gators will bring back Will Richard and Alex Condon and add a trio of impact transfers led by Alijah Martin from Florida Atlantic. Clayton gives them a bona fide go-to scorer.

Davis committed to Arkansas earlier this month, giving John Calipari one of the best players in the portal. He then declined an invitation to the G League Elite Camp, opting to conduct private workouts for NBA teams instead. Davis shared AAC Player of the Year honors last season, averaging career highs across the board: 18.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists. He had 35 points in Florida Atlantic’s win over Arizona last season. While Calipari is bringing a trio of high schoolers with him from Kentucky, Davis is key, the player around whom Calipari can build offensively. This is a second weekend NCAA tournament team with Davis leading the way.

Jones was one of the biggest breakout stars last season, averaging 21.8 points and 7.6 rebounds for Memphis after spending two seasons at DePaul and one at St. John’s. The 6-foot-6 wing showed a much improved outside shot, making 38% of his 3-point attempts en route to first-team All-AAC honors. Transfer rumors swirled around him toward the end of April, but Jones opted not to enter the portal. He did participate in the NBA draft combine. Penny Hardaway welcomes a slew of intriguing transfers, including Tyrese Hunter, PJ Haggerty and Colby Rogers, but Jones’ return would give the Tigers a top 25 argument.

Bill Self has approached the offseason as if Furphy is leaving, but the Australian has left the door open to return to Lawrence. He’s a projected top-20 pick in the draft, which would make a return unlikely, and his 6-foot-9 size and 36% 3-point shooting ability are an easy sell for NBA teams. But, the Jayhawks are the preseason No. 1 team with or without him: Self has added transfers AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Rylan Griffen (Alabama) and Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) to bring some perimeter pop alongside All-American Hunter Dickinson down low. There’s also talk he’s still going after another big-name transfer.

A five-star recruit in the 2021 class, Sallis had a difficult two seasons at Gonzaga before transferring to Wake Forest and emerging as a first-team All-ACC player. He averaged 18.0 points and shot 40.5% from 3-point range, putting up big performances against Duke, NC State and Florida. Sallis attended the NBA draft combine and is No. 50 in ESPN’s NBA draft rankings, projecting as a late second-round pick. Wake Forest is still aiming for its first NCAA tournament appearance in the Steve Forbes era, but a core of Sallis, Cameron Hildreth, Efton Reid III and Appalachian State transfer TreVon Spillers will be a good starting point.

The vibe coming out of the combine last week was that Holmes looked very likely to remain in the NBA draft, which has been the expectation before last season. He told Sports Illustrated he doesn’t “fully know” his decision but is “way more confident” about staying in the draft. Holmes attended the combine for the second year in a row, but opted not to participate in scrimmages. He’s ranked No. 52 in ESPN’s top 100, but put up All-American-caliber numbers as a junior: 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. At 6-foot-10, he shot 38.6% from 3-point range. Dayton would be a borderline top 25 team with Holmes back in the fold.

Others: Payton Sandfort, Iowa Hawkeyes; Eric Dixon, Villanova Wildcats; Chase Hunter, Clemson Tigers; Matthew Murrell, Ole Miss Rebels; Nique Clifford, Colorado State Rams; Mohamed Diarra, NC State Wolfpack