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Jeff Borzello, ESPN Staff Writer
Projecting newcomers — whether they’re freshmen or transfers — has always been an inexact science. In the current era of college basketball, with player movement at an all-time high, it’s even more difficult. Entire rosters are being turned over from one year to the next, with role allocation for many teams entirely unclear entering the season.
Talking to coaches and NBA scouts, monitoring exhibition games, checking out box scores for “secret” scrimmages — it’s all helpful when trying to figure out which newcomers are going to make an immediate impact. And it’s more necessary than ever given the lack of roster continuity.
An annual reminder: This is a ranking solely based on expected impact for this season. It’s not meant to be a mock draft or a rehash of our recruiting, transfer or preseason top 100 rankings. The top four players in the newcomer rankings are indeed the top four players in the 2025 NBA draft rankings and were the top four prospects in the 2024 ESPN 100, but that’s where the similarities end.
The projected No. 1 pick in June’s NBA draft, Flagg is expected to be the focal point for Duke from day one, at both ends of the floor. He has all the talent, and the intangibles, to be the best player in the country.
An explosive athlete who will produce highlight-reel plays on a nightly basis, Bailey is going to push Flagg for the No. 1 pick next June. He’s also one-half of the duo that has people so excited about Rutgers.
3. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers Scarlet Knights (freshman)
The other half of the Rutgers star duo, Harper will run the show and have the ball in his hands constantly. He’s a crafty scorer but has improved his ability to run an offense and make good decisions as a passer.
Edgecombe boosted his stock into top-five status as his high school career progressed, then took it to a new level after playing with the Bahamian national team over the summer. He’s going to be an explosive playmaker for Scott Drew.
There aren’t many questions about how Richmond’s production will translate from Seton Hall to St. John’s, given he’s already proven himself as a dominant player in the Big East. Averaged 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists last season.
Despite a roster filled with proven college scorers that Rodney Terry pulled out of the transfer portal, Johnson might still be the best offensive player for the Longhorns. He can score at all three levels and his performances in Texas’ scrimmages are generating buzz.
7. Norchad Omier, F, Baylor Bears (transfer)
If Omier averages a double-double this season in Waco, it will be his fifth straight college season hitting those numbers — at his third school. Was a two-time All-ACC selection at Miami, helping lead the Hurricanes to a Final Four in 2023.
Much of the hype coming out of Arkansas’ exhibition win over preseason No. 1 Kansas centered around Boogie Fland and D.J. Wagner, but don’t forget about Davis. He shared AAC Player of the Year honors and averaged 18.2 points at Florida Atlantic.
With Avila’s September ankle sprain behind him, the Indiana State transfer should immediately be one of the best players in the Atlantic 10. He’s again playing under Josh Schertz, in the same system that allowed him to become a breakout star last season.
Arguably the best big man in the portal this offseason, Ballo was a two-time first-team All-Pac-12 selection at Arizona. There are questions about how he’ll fit alongside Malik Reneau in Bloomington, but his rim presence is undoubtedly a boost.
11. Kon Knueppel, G, Duke Blue Devils (freshman)
The Knueppel hype will not stop growing. A borderline five-star recruit out of high school, Knueppel rose into the top 10 of ESPN’s NBA draft rankings early in the preseason and now has expectations rivaling anyone outside the top four freshmen in the country.
McNeeley brings a versatile offensive skillset and a competitive edge that should fit perfectly in Storrs. He’ll likely be the second offensive option to Alex Karaban. Can make shots from the perimeter, is a good passer for his size and can get his own look.
Osobor will suit up for coach Danny Sprinkle at his third school, going from Montana State to Utah State — where he won Mountain West Player of the Year — and now Washington. Averaged 17.7 points and 9.0 boards last season. Sprinkle will hope for more of the same from his star.
Offensively, Demin is going to make an enormous impact for new coach Kevin Young. He’s 6-foot-9 but handles the ball and runs the offense, and his ability to find players out of the pick-and-roll is impressive. Scouts are raving about the Russia native.
The buzz out of Champaign since the moment Jakucionis stepped on campus has been overwhelmingly positive. He’s 6-6 and brings high-level playmaking ability. Brad Underwood’s offense should put him in positions to create mismatches.
One of the elite transfers of this past offseason, Storr appears to be fighting with Alabama transfer Rylan Griffen for a starting spot in Lawrence. He was a second-team All-Big Ten selection after averaging 16.8 points at Wisconsin.
Despite the step up in competition, DeVries’ numbers shouldn’t fall off too dramatically in the Big 12. The two-time Missouri Valley Player of the Year will still be the go-to option offensively in a system with which he’s incredibly familiar, after following his father from Drake.
If Alabama was missing anything last season, it was rim protection. So Nate Oats went out and landed one of the elite post defenders in the country. Omoruyi was named to the Big Ten’s All-Defensive Teams after averaging 8.4 rebounds and 2.9 blocks at Rutgers.
Powell has generated positive reviews early in Chapel Hill, with scouts impressed by his ability on the defensive end. He can guard multiple positions and has good instincts at that end of the floor. Powell is a projected lottery pick in the 2025 NBA draft.
Don’t be surprised if Wolf is the focal point of Dusty May’s offense this season. The plan is to play him and fellow 7-footer Vladislav Goldin together, but word is the Yale transfer is being used in a variety of ways. Averaged 14.1 points and 9.7 boards at his previous stop.
On a roster with zero returning players, Robinson is the newcomer with the highest expectations. He was the Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year under Mark Pope at BYU, averaging 14.2 points and shooting 35.4% from 3.
22. Jonas Aidoo, F, Arkansas Razorbacks (transfer)
If Aidoo is healthy — he didn’t play in the exhibition against Kansas — John Calipari will have a proven all-SEC defender anchoring his interior defense. Averaged 11.4 points and 7.3 rebounds last season at Tennessee, earning second-team all-league honors.
With the losses of Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander, Greg McDermott needs scoring this season, and Isaacs consistently showed at Texas Tech he’s capable of doing just that. Averaged 15.8 points and earned third-team All-Big 12 honors.
24. Ben Humrichous, F, Illinois Fighting Illini (transfer)
His numbers didn’t jump off the page at Evansville — 14.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 41.4% from 3 — but scouts have been buzzing about Humrichous in Underwood’s offense. He can really shoot it for someone his size (6-9) but is also more skilled with the ball than anticipated.
There’s been a steady drumbeat of positivity surrounding Conwell for most of the offseason, as the 6-4 Indiana State transfer could lead the Musketeers in scoring. Last season, he averaged 16.3 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 40% from 3.
Eric Musselman said in the offseason that Claude was the biggest addition for the Trojans last spring — and he’s already proving himself as the key man in the backcourt. Averaged 16.6 points last season at Xavier.
Toppin was a huge surprise as a freshman under Richard Pitino at New Mexico last season, an unranked recruit who developed into a second-team All-Mountain West performer. He averaged 12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in his lone season with the Lobos.
Hawkins showed plenty of defensive versatility and shot 36.9% from 3 last season at Illinois, and word is Jerome Tang is hoping to use him in something of a small forward role. Had the best season of his career as a senior in Champaign.
Whether Queen and Julian Reese can operate together effectively has yet to be answered, but the former is a potential first-round draft pick. He’s an excellent passer and has good ball skills for a 6-10 center, and can score with his back to the basket.
The program’s highest-ranked recruit in nearly 40 years, Bethea was one of the best scorers in the country in the 2024 class. He can really shoot it from the perimeter, but will have the opportunity to create his own looks under Jim Larrañaga.
Edwards won Sun Belt Player of the Year honors last season after averaging 17.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists at James Madison — and he’s now the headliner of an entirely new Louisville roster under Pat Kelsey. Should thrive in Kelsey’s high-octane system.
32. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke Blue Devils (freshman)
Maluach’s biggest impact early on is going to come on the defensive end, given his 7-2 size and ability to protect the rim and hedge away from the basket on ball-screens. With the talent around him, he’ll also get chances in transition and as a lob threat.
33. Myles Rice, G, Indiana Hoosiers (transfer)
Rice was one of the best freshmen in the country last season, earning first-team All-Pac-12 honors after averaging 14.8 points and 3.8 assists at Washington State. He was also terrific in the Hoosiers’ exhibition against Tennessee, scoring 20 points.
34. D.J. Wagner, G, Arkansas Razorbacks (transfer)
Despite the narratives, Wagner is a former top-five recruit who averaged 9.9 points and 3.3 assists as a freshman, starting 28 games for a team that earned a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament. He then went out and put up 24 against Kansas in the exhibition game.
35. Tramon Mark, G, Texas Longhorns (transfer)
One of the aforementioned high-scoring transfers Rodney Terry landed this spring, Mark broke out as an offensive player at Arkansas last season after spending the first part of his career at Houston. Averaged 16.2 points and shot 36.4% from 3.
36. Saint Thomas, F, USC Trojans (transfer)
The Trojans have a completely new roster, with Claude and Thomas as the projected go-to guys for Musselman. Thomas had a massive breakout last season at Northern Colorado, averaging 19.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists.
37. Jeremy Roach, G, Baylor Bears (transfer)
After earning third-team All-ACC honors last season and producing career-high numbers across the board, Roach left Duke for Baylor and will become Scott Drew’s new point guard. He’s bringing plenty of experience — and plenty of wins — to the table.
38. Aidan Mahaney, G, UConn Huskies (transfer)
Mahaney’s ability to make shots from the perimeter and finish in the mid-range and with his floater should take some of the heat off Alex Karaban and McNeeley. He averaged 13.9 points in each of his two seasons at Saint Mary’s.
Kelly didn’t suit up for Auburn’s exhibition game against Furman, but there are growing expectations for him to become the Tigers’ key perimeter scorer. He’s a 6-6 wing who averaged nearly 14 points a game last season.
40. Deivon Smith, G, St. John’s Red Storm (transfer)
St. John’s added one of the best backcourts in the country in the portal when it landed Richmond, as well as Smith — who is playing for his fourth school in four years. He was terrific last season at Utah, averaging 13.3 points, 6.3 boards and 7.1 assists.
Lanier really struggled to make shots in the Vols’ exhibition game against Indiana, but Rick Barnes is going to rely on him as a perimeter shot-maker this season. He was one of the mid-major breakout stars last season, averaging 19.7 points and shooting 44% from 3 at North Florida.
Johnson started his college career with the Buckeyes then went to South Carolina and was a double-figure scorer there for two seasons. And now he’s back in Columbus, Ohio. He and Bruce Thornton should form a dynamic backcourt for Jake Diebler.
Mitchell should be something of a missing piece for Wes Miller and the Bearcats, who needed a versatile frontcourt piece who could make plays at both ends of the floor. As a sophomore at Texas, he averaged 9.6 points and 7.5 rebounds.
44. Boogie Fland, G, Arkansas Razorbacks (freshman)
Fland followed Calipari from Lexington to Fayetteville, and Arkansas fans are thrilled he made that decision. The talented point guard was terrific against Kansas in the exhibition game, going for 22 points, five assists and six steals.
A 6-10 forward who played alongside Flagg, McNeeley, Queen and Co. at Montverde Academy, Newell will be a huge attraction for NBA scouts this season. He’s improved his perimeter shooting ability and brings a motor and competitiveness.
Bryant might not start immediately, given the presence of productive Oakland transfer Trey Townsend, but the early reviews of the 6-8 forward sound intriguing. He can really shoot it from the perimeter and his motor has been running.
Catchings decommitted from Purdue last spring and ultimately landed in Provo. His physical profile stands out, as a 6-10 two-way wing who can make shots at one end and defend at the other. He should be a primary offensive option for Kevin Young.
48. Zeke Mayo, G, Kansas Jayhawks (transfer)
Bill Self landed a slew of proven college performers from the portal this offseason, but Mayo was the one he constantly praised — and the South Dakota State transfer looks to have nailed down a starting spot. Was the Summit League Player of the Year.
Johnson didn’t have to move very far to go from USC to UCLA, but he might end up as Mick Cronin’s best newcomer. Averaged 10.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists, and brings impressive versatility and two-way ability to Westwood.
UNC’s perimeter group is crowded, so it will be interesting to see Jackson’s role in the first few weeks, but he’s generated positive reviews so far. Aggressive with the ball in his hands, Jackson can get baskets in a hurry.
SIXTEEN MORE NEWCOMERS TO WATCH
Martin burst onto the national scene during Florida Atlantic’s run to the Final Four in 2023 before averaging 13.1 points and 5.9 rebounds last season with the Owls. All reports out of Gainesville point to him being one of the team’s best players this season.
Murauskas entered college with plenty of hype, but the Lithuania native didn’t carve out a consistent role during his one season at Arizona. In the WCC, he should be among the best players in the league.
Nate Oats has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal but the buzz surrounding Philon has been steadily growing this preseason. He started both of the Tide’s exhibition games and established himself as a dynamic playmaker at the point guard spot.
Small has been productive throughout his college career, at both East Carolina and Oklahoma State, and appears to be trending that way once again in Morgantown. Expect him to be the team’s go-to guy alongside Tucker DeVries.
Pettiford appears to be battling Furman transfer JP Pegues for the starting point guard spot — and Pettiford was terrific in the Tigers’ exhibition game against Furman, finishing with 13 points, three assists, three steals, also hitting a pair of 3s.
Coward was a sleeper in the portal but ultimately followed David Riley from Eastern Washington to Washington State. He’s a 6-6 wing who averaged 15.4 points and shot 38.3% from 3-point range, and he’s earning early plaudits.
Leonard Hamilton couldn’t stop praising Davis at ACC Media Day and it looks like he could be the Seminoles’ starting point guard early in his career, if not from Day 1. He was a four-star recruit who impressed with Overtime Elite last year.
Word has been leaking out since the summer that Corhen could make a bigger-than-expected impact for Jeff Capel. The 6-10 forward averaged 9.4 points and 3.9 rebounds in just 21.5 minutes at Florida State last season, shooting nearly 63%.
Chris Holtmann had to start completely from scratch last spring, and Blocker might be the most intriguing of the new group. A top-40 recruit in the 2023 class, he didn’t produce at Arkansas, but his ability to make shots will be an asset for the Blue Demons.
Julien is arguably the best returning player in the Sun Belt this season — but he’s also the best transfer in the league. Spent the past five seasons at Louisiana, where he averaged 17.3 points in 2023-24.
Parker was one of the most explosive scorers in the country a year ago, averaging 15.9 points in just 20.7 minutes at Saint Louis and making nearly 43% of his 3-point attempts. And now he’ll be playing for one of the most free-wheeling offenses in the country at McNeese.
It’s very crowded on the wings in Lawrence this season, so Passmore might be a year away from truly making a major impact — but his physical profile, motor and two-way ability are going to be difficult to keep off the floor in 2024-25.
Tre Donaldson is likely to start the season as the Wolverines’ point guard, so Cason could fall into the same situation as Passmore. But his performances in Michigan’s exhibition games portend a potentially bigger role: 20 points against Toledo and a pair of 3s vs. Oakland.
Leon Rice and Boise are very familiar with Cardenas, given they’ve faced him a handful of times during his three seasons at San José State. He earned first-team preseason All-Mountain West honors after averaging 13.2 points and 5.5 assists in 2023-24.
The buzz surrounding Sorber has grown in recent weeks, with reports from the Hoyas’ scrimmages projecting the 6-10 big man to have an extended role earlier than expected. He was a top-60 prospect in the ESPN 100 for 2024.
Slotted just inside the ESPN 100 in 2024, Hinton is the most talented newcomer entering the Ivy League this season. Onlookers have been impressed by him in the preseason, and he should have every chance to make an impact right away.