Preview: Commissioner’s Cup Championship

The New York Liberty (15-3) will play for their second-consecutive WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship when they host the Minnesota Lynx (13-3) this Tuesday, June 25. The game will be streamed via Prime Video, and tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

One of the aims of the Commissioner’s Cup is to showcase the WNBA’s top talent, and it’s fair to say that the Cup’s recently-revamped qualification system succeeded in that regard. The Liberty and Lynx are currently No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in the WNBA standings, while they rank No. 2 and No. 1 in the league in net rating. On the surface, it seems as if Tuesday’s game will be an even matchup.

The Lynx defeated the Liberty handily, however, in their first meeting of the season. Minnesota was scorching-hot from behind the arc, hitting 14 3-pointers, while New York’s offense was uncharacteristically poor, with 2023 MVP Breanna Stewart’s 20-point, 11-rebound performance the lone highlight.

Since then, New York has been the hottest team in the WNBA, winning 11 of 12 games and leapfrogging the Connecticut Sun, who had been the league’s top team as recently as this past weekend. Despite the extended absence of starting point guard Courtney Vandersloot, who has missed the team’s last eight games for personal reasons, the Liberty’s sheer amount of playmaking, shooting and rebounding has carried them back to this point: another Commissioner’s Cup Championship game.

In order to repeat as Commissioner’s Cup champions, the Liberty will not only need to withstand the Lynx’ 3-point onslaught; they’ll also have to overcome a rather unfavorable scheduling spot. The statuses of Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee soreness), are questionable for Tuesday, and New York will be playing in its fourth game in six days, so fatigue may very well be a factor.

Regardless of who suits up and who doesn’t, expect both teams to push the envelope offensively. New York and Minnesota both like shooting the long ball—Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve told media that 3-pointers “could be a thing that decides the game” and that she’s planning for at least 30 of them to be taken by both teams—and they also have some of the best frontcourt talent in the WNBA. Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier (20.9 points and 10.4 rebounds per game) is putting together another stellar statistical campaign, while New York’s Jonquel Jones has been one of the league’s most efficient scorers, posting a true shooting percentage of 70.1 percent.

Granted, Minnesota held Jones in check back in May (four points and five fouls in 28 minutes), and the Lynx have been playing the kind of defense that makes it hard on just about anyone. They’re leading the WNBA in defensive rating, allowing 90.6 points per 100 possessions, and rank second in both blocks (5.5) and steals per game (9.6).

How Jones responds will be just one of many factors that will determine how Tuesday’s game goes. If she and Stewart are able to get going early, it could be a long night for Minnesota’s frontcourt, especially if Sabrina Ionescu is able to match their interior presence with her signature long-distance shots. The Lynx may have a depth advantage, though, and will be better-rested than their opponents. Can New York persevere, or will Minnesota win its first Commissioner’s Cup Championship?

Game information

Minnesota Lynx (13-3) vs. New York Liberty (15-3)

When: Tuesday, June 25 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: UBS Arena in Elmont, NY

How to watch: Prime Video

Lynx injury report: Diamond Miller (doubtful; knee)

Liberty injury report: Courtney Vandersloot (questionable; return to play conditioning), Betnijah Laney (questionable; knee), Nyara Sabally (out; back)