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Congratulations to the 99% of NFL pundits and fans whose preseason predictions have long made their way through the garbage disposal. Unfortunately, the NFL writers for the Guardian have no such luck. Our villainous editors are forcing us to turn back the clock to early September to revisit our season predictions (you can read them in full here).
While we’d love to take a victory lap and say we saw all the twists and turns coming, that’s not exactly the case (though we did nail a few). So, let’s rip off the Band-Aid and see how our prognostications panned out.
Best team that won’t make the playoffs
What we said before the season: We thought the Jets, Colts, and Bears would be good, but not good enough. We also picked a 10 to 11 win season for the Bears, thinking they would only miss the postseason due to their powerful division. Conversely, one of us thought Buffalo could miss out “given that the offense is weaker without a blue-chip prospect.”
What actually happened: The Jets and Bears struggled from the start and fired their head coaches before December. Both franchises finished 5-12 and have many issues to repair before even thinking about a playoff run. The Colts narrowly missed out, finishing 8-9 in an AFC South where hovering right below .500 lands you in playoff contention. As for the Bills, who earned an AFC Championship berth, their offense was anything but weak thanks to NFL MVP Josh Allen. Only the Detroit Lions scored more points than Buffalo this season.
MVP
What we said before the season: Patrick Mahomes or CJ Stroud? Our writers were split. We picked Mahomes thanks to a “rejuvenated offense” and because “he still can lead the Chiefs to those inexplicable comeback victories.” Stroud got votes because we thought his new offensive weapons, Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, could catapult the second-year slinger to 30-plus touchdowns.
What actually happened: Allen (27 first-place votes) narrowly won the award over Lamar Jackson (23 first-place votes). The Chiefs offense, meanwhile, was anything but rejuvenated. Mahomes’ connection with Travis Kelce waned as the season wore on. Though Mahomes pulled a rabbit out the hat many times this season, it was the Kansas City defense that led the way. Stroud’s shiny new wideout, Diggs, tore his ACL in October. Stroud threw 20 touchdowns and while he showed flashes of greatness, he was also on the ground a lot and regressed from his superb rookie season.
Rookie to watch
What we said before the season: We devoured the Caleb Williams hype, with two of us salivating at the quarterback’s offensive weapons. We also gave a nod to Colts’ defensive end Laiatu Latu, believing he could touch double-digit sacks in his debut campaign. One of our writers was sage enough to see the greatness of Jayden Daniels early, believing his numbers would be boosted thanks to Washington often “playing from behind.”
Related: Patrick Mahomes was chasing Super Bowl history. He left humbled and harassed
What actually happened: Williams had a subpar rookie campaign, marred by bad coaching and holding on to the ball too long. He was sacked a whopping 68 times, the third-most in NFL history. Latu, the first defender taken in the 2024 draft, was disappointing with just 16 solo tackles and four sacks. The home for disruptive rookie defenders proved to be in Los Angeles as Rams outside linebacker Jared Verse won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. His teammate, Braden Fiske, finished third. Daniels, the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year, was an absolute revelation. He led the Commanders to a 7-2 start, capped off by a Hail Mary win over Chicago. It soon became clear that the dual-threat Daniels was a generational talent.
AFC East champion
What we said before the season: One of us believed the “indefatigable” Allen would lead Buffalo to another AFC East title. Two of us picked the Dolphins, more as an indictment of Buffalo’s defense, “for the first time in the Sean McDermott era, they’re lacking ability and depth at linebacker and safety.” Then there’s the writer who didn’t even mention the Bills and thought the Jets would take the title because the “sky’s the limit.” Be nice: the same writer was first on the Daniels bandwagon.
What actually happened: The Dolphins finished below .500 in a division where half the teams are rebuilding and, shocker, capped off the season with Tyreek Hill throwing in the towel. Buffalo ran away with the division.
AFC North champion
What we said before the season: Most of us picked the Ravens with some heavy doting on Jackson (“Explosive! Sensational!”), though we did see some potential weak spots with Baltimore’s “brittle offensive line; and a new, first-time defensive coordinator.” One vote went to the Bengals based largely on Burrow’s renewed health. His blond hair only added to the swagger. Not a word about Pittsburgh or Cleveland.
What actually happened: The Ravens took the AFC North title for the second-straight year. Jackson, who proved impossible to contain, put up better numbers than his two MVP years. Derrick Henry was a juggernaut, finishing with his highest yards per carry total of his career. The Bengals started slow but finished with a five-game win streak and narrowly missed the playoffs. But it was Mike Tomlin and the Steelers who proved again to be a model of consistency (some might say consistently above average but not spectacular). There was a lot to like about the 10-7 Steelers, who earned a playoff bid, even if they fizzled on the final stretch.
AFC South champion
What we said before the season: It was a Texans sweep for our writers who all believed Stroud’s encore to his rookie season would be special, and that “Houston’s defense will rise to match Stroud and the offense.” There was no love for the Jaguars who our writers predicted would “plummet” under “one-hit wonder head coach Doug Pederson.”
What actually happened: Here’s something we don’t get to say often in this space – we were right! Other than hapless New England and Dallas, Houston didn’t dominate anyone or upset any juggernauts on the way to the AFC South crown. But at 10-7, they got the job done. We were also right on the defense making strides; they finished sixth in the league with 315 total yards allowed per game. As for the Jags, their defense was among the NFL’s worst and Pederson was let go after an embarrassing 4-13 season.
AFC West champion
What we said before the season: Did anyone have the guts to pick anyone other than the owners of the division for almost a decade? No way. We pointed out that the Jim Harbaugh-Justin Herbert pairing was intriguing, but the rest of the Chargers roster was “barren … Outside the offensive line, the team is either slow or old.” Yeah, clean sweep for the Chiefs.
What actually happened: Shocker, the Chiefs won the division yet again, but this iteration of the AFC West was arguably the best in football, along with the NFC North. It wasn’t quite as pretty as usual for the Chiefs with a struggling offense and holes across the board. But wins are wins and Kansas City collected 15 of them, including two against the Chargers, their biggest divisional threat. The Harbaugh-Herbert pairing was as advertised – until the playoffs anyway – and the defense outperformed expectations in the first half of the season. At 11-6, Los Angeles secured the No 5 seed, while the surprising Denver Broncos snagged a third AFC playoff spot at 10-7. Denver and Sean Payton appear to have found their guy in rookie Bo Nix.
NFC East champion
What we said before the season: All four of us picked the Eagles, though one of considered Dallas for a moment. We loved the additions of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio to Nick Sirianni’s staff and agreed that the Eagles “have the most complete roster in the division – perhaps the whole conference.”
What actually happened: We were right. The 14-3 Eagles soared to another division title thanks to such a complete and talented roster. Weirdly, the Eagles flew a bit under the radar in the regular season, despite Saquon Barkley’s historic run aided by the best offensive line in football, a punishing defensive front four, and two of the best coordinators in football. What we didn’t see coming were the Commanders, who earned a playoff berth at 12-5. Daniels was the story, but Dan Quinn deserves a lot of credit for fast-forwarding a rebuild after Washington finished 4-13 in 2023.
NFC North champion
What we said before the season: One of us thought the Packers were poised for a division crown. “The defense upgraded in the secondary this offseason and that should filter through the rest of what has been an unreliable unit.” The rest of us picked the Lions. We thought the “insane defensive line starring Aidan Hutchinson and a (hopefully healthy soon) DJ Reader … will catapult the Lions to a deep playoff run” but did acknowledge a “momentous battle could be in the making between Detroit and Green Bay.” One of us expected “Chicago to make some noise as well.” We did project that three teams would finish with at least 10 wins though did not specify which three.
What actually happened: Three NFC North teams did, in fact, top 10 wins. The division winner Lions finished 15-2 thanks to their 33.2 points scored per game, the most in the NFL. Coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn were wizards, with Glenn’s defense surviving the loss of its best player in Hutchinson. Green Bay hung in there at 11-6 and finished third but struggled mightily without a bona fide WR1. It was the Sam Darnold-led 14-3 Vikings who helped Minnesota finish as division runners-up. Darnold looked like a changed quarterback for the first 17 weeks of the season before imploding in Week 18 against Detroit with the division title and home field on the line. Chicago, with just five wins, finished in some deep crevice of the division’s basement.
NFC South champion
What we said before the season: Three of us picked Tampa “by default.” We said some nice things about Baker Mayfield but mostly wanted to move on. One bold soul picked the Falcons. “Kirk Cousins can unlock Kyle Pitts and Drake London’s massive potential.”
What actually happened: 10-7 was more than enough for Tampa to take the division. Mayfield was fun to watch but you never got the sense this team could make a deep playoff run, especially with an atrocious pass defense. Atlanta finished 8-9 but Cousins deteriorated as the season wore on and was eventually benched for rookie Michael Penix Jr.
NFC West champion
What we said before the season: We all picked the 49ers coming off their Super Bowl appearance. We thought San Francisco would “roll to the division title” with its “all-star cast.” Seattle’s explosive offensive intrigued us and most of us thought the Rams would be in the mix, “earning a home playoff game.” One of us wasn’t sold on the “Rams having a repeat of last year’s surprise with no Aaron Donald around.”
What actually happened: The 49ers shockingly fell from first to worst, occupying the NFC West basement for the first time since 2020. So many things went wrong for San Francisco, from Christian McCaffrey’s injury limiting him to five (largely unproductive) games to defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen being overmatched to all the Deebo Samuel drama. The Rams and Seahawks finished 10-7, with Los Angeles winning the title via tiebreaker. Coaching mastermind Sean McVay and a young defense led the charge. The Rams entered the postseason on a defensive roll, holding four of their last five opponents to under 10 points. Seattle had plenty of offensive explosiveness, but it was their improved defense that helped secure their third straight winning season.
AFC Championship
What we said before the season: We loved Kansas City, with one writer picking them over the Ravens and two others over the Texans. One of us flipped the script and picked Houston to top the Chiefs.
Related: White cornerback, Black QB: did Eagles grab ultimate DEI Super Bowl win?
What actually happened: Chiefs! Bills! The matchup we all wanted but no one predicted. As Buffalo entered Arrowhead, this felt like Allen’s best chance to finally beat Mahomes in the playoffs. But, as was the trademark of the Chiefs’ season, they found a way to pull out a dramatic, narrow win. Buffalo won the total yards and turnover battle, but the Chiefs made key stops when it counted most. How many more times can Buffalo mentally handle saying “there’s always next year”?
NFC Championship
What we said before the season: Two of us had Detroit winning, one over San Francisco, the other over Green Bay. We also picked Green Bay over Philadelphia, and San Francisco over Green Bay.
What actually happened: No one saw Washington making it this far, even as the playoffs began, and especially when they headed to Detroit. Daniels and Co stunned the Lions 45-31, turning us all into believers. Had we given deeper thought to our claims about how complete a team Philadelphia was, perhaps we would have offered up more respect. The Eagles’ 55-23 win over Washington was about as lopsided as it gets. Or so we thought.
Super Bowl
What we said before the season: Two of us believed in the inevitability of the Chiefs’ three-peat. “Bet against Patrick Mahomes. I won’t.” One of us picked the Packers despite claiming of Kansas City, “this may be the best team the Mahomes-Reid-Spagnuolo trifecta have rolled out yet.” Our other pick was the Texans on the strength of their defense.
What actually happened: Wanna talk defense? Hello Eagles. Fangio’s crew staged an absolute beatdown of the Chiefs in a 40-22 rout. Philly’s defensive line walloped the Chiefs, sacking Mahomes six times, the most of his career. Even more impressive is the fact that Fangio didn’t dial up a single blitz. This Super Bowl was among Mahomes’s worst performances in a big game. His passes were off-target and he looked off-balance from the start of the game.
Congratulations to the Eagles – and to us for being not quite as wrong as we could have been. But we still learned a few things. Inevitability is a myth. Complete teams are the ideal. Oh, and never ever pick the Jets.