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Players are set to begin their Olympic conquest Thursday morning just outside of Tokyo, Japan. This year’s games will mark only the fourth time in which golf is part of the Olympics, with two occurrences coming in the early 1900’s and the other just five years ago in Rio.
At the Rio Olympics, it was Justin Rose who claimed gold for Great Britain. In what eventually turned into a two-man race, Henrik Stenson fell just short as Matt Kuchar rounded out the podium, snatching the bronze medal for the United States with a final round 63.
The field this go around appears to be a touch stronger than what it was in 2016. With Kasumigaseki Country Club playing host, a typhoon looms large as wet conditions are likely to present themselves. Despite this, players have been raving about the course all week, further validating that it will be a worthy venue for the Olympics.
Arguably the most storied course in Japan, Tom Fazio led the modernization efforts in 2016 in preparation for this event. Players have touched on just about every aspect of the game when asked which skills will be needed to compete this week.
Hideki Matsuyama discussed the importance of hitting fairways as the rough is grown out and with wet conditions, the course will surely play longer than its scorecard length of 7,447 yards. His fellow countryman, Rikuya Hoshino mentioned utilizing his driving distance this week, so it appears that getting off-the-tee in both senses will be important.
Then there is Marc Leishman, who spoke about the need to hit precise iron shots into these large, undulating greens. He also touched on putting, as three-putt avoidance will play a key factor if one is to miss the correct section of the green.
In total, it sounds like Kasumigaseki CC will be a complete and thorough examination of one’s game. With only 60 players in the field, head-to-head matchups are limited, but the odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook have done a fantastic job of pricing some ahead of the Olympics.
Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet):
Marc Leishman (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood
I love the Australian duo this week, with a slight lean towards Leishman. While he disappointed many with his performance at The Open, it wasn’t all bad. After opening with a round of 75, Leishman battled back with a 67 on Friday. Damaging his putter at some point in his second round, Leishman had to putt with his lob wedge, making his round of 3-under all the more impressive.
He spoke glowingly of Kasumigaseki CC on Tuesday as well. Understanding that iron-play will be pertinent if that part of the bag perks up for Leishman, he could be a contender for gold. Not only that, but he’s been catching fire on the greens more often than not lately making him that more dangerous.
This feels like a spot where Fleetwood could randomly break through with a victory, but I am just not seeing it. The ball-striking this year has been pretty sub-par when comparing to his previous seasons on the PGA Tour and European Tour.
I’m not sure if it’s a confidence issue or past battle wounds catching up to him, but he’s never been a player to trust come Sunday. This matchup could come down to the final round, especially with no cut in play, and if that’s the case, it’s Leishman I’d rather have on my side.
Viktor Hovland (+100) over Rory McIlroy
Is it a bridge too far to suggest that Hovland a better player than McIlroy at the moment? I don’t think so, as the Norwegian has been great tee-to-green when he avoids the perils of bunkers. That being said, it was wildly impressive that Hovland was able to brush off a poor U.S. Open showing and hop on a plane to Germany and win the following week.
It’s always something with McIlroy. His state of mind, his actual play, whatever it may be, I find myself having a tough time trusting him. We’ve all seen the interview leading up to the Olympics and while I am not here to speculate on motivation levels for the week, it certainly wouldn’t be considered a positive for him.
While the irons have been very good here in the United States, he has since struggled in Europe. A forgettable outing at the Irish Open was followed up with a missed cut at the Scottish Open. He then went to Royal St. George’s where he had a week filled with plenty of birdies, but numerous mistakes. If those mistakes compound in Tokyo, there’s a chance he becomes disinterested and starts to simply go through the motions.
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Abraham Ancer (+110) over Patrick Reed
There are a lot of factors going against Captain America this week. The most obvious is the fact that the first time Reed will see the golf course will be in his first-round. Having taken the place of Bryson DeChambeau on Team USA last weekend, Reed is immediately behind the eight ball.
While I believe that will just be a minor speed bump, it’s his recent play that has me concerned about his prospects for the week. He hasn’t cracked the top-20 in a month, with his best finish being a T-25 at the Travelers Championship. It’s not that his game is in that bad of a spot, he’s been gaining strokes across most of the major statistical categories, he’s just had issues scoring, and that’s not something I’m comfortable backing in this instance.
Ancer not only has time on his side after spending a week in Cannes, France following The Open, but also form. He’s been terrific this season, especially as of late, notching five top-15 finishes in his last six starts in the United States. He’s been much improved on the greens since the beginning of spring, so if he brings just a fraction of his standard ball-striking, he should be in contention to medal.
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