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LSU entered its 2019 meeting with Alabama knowing it had a good chance to end Alabama’s eight-game series win streak. Why? Because of Tigers’ QB Joe Burrow. Alabama had a good signal-caller with Tua Tagovailoa, but LSU liked its chances against anyone in a quarterback duel.
In 2022, we saw Jayden Daniels square off with Bryce Young in this matchup. Both QBs would leave college as Heisman winners.
This rivalry used to be defined by defense. Now it comes down to which quarterback makes the necessary plays.
On Saturday, we’ll see Garrett Nussmeier and Jalen Milroe. Neither player is on the level of the aforementioned QBs, but both are among the best in the SEC. Despite the inconsistencies, either player has the talent to take over a game.
The QB that makes the most plays on Saturday will be in a good position to win the game. Today, we’ll break down who that might be. Let’s jump right in and see how Nussmeier and Milroe compare entering Saturday’s high stakes game.
Who creates more explosive plays
When it comes to explosiveness, Milroe has the edge, but the margin is slim. Alabama ranks third in the SEC in explosive passing rate while LSU ranks seventh. They’re four spots apart but the raw number isn’t that different.
Milroe has been more efficient in this department. His completion percentage on 20+ air yard throws is 10 points better than Nussmeier’s and his average YPA on deep shots is 10 yards better than Nussmeier’s average. Bama is getting more bang for its buck when it airs it out.
Milroe also adds an explosiveness element on the ground. He has the wheels to get a first down or take it to the house on any play. That’s something you won’t see from Nussmeier.
Milroe has his deficiencies, but creating the big play isn’t one of them.
The turnover edge
Thanks to Carson Beck’s three interceptions vs. Florida, Nussmeier no longer leads the SEC in picks.
With nine interceptions on the year, Nussmeier’s turned it over more than LSU would like, but his interception rate is actually better than Jalen Milroe’s.
Milroe has thrown six on 203 attempts while Nuss’ nine have come on 333 attempts. When you air it out as much as LSU does, you’re going to have some interceptions. Still, LSU needs to avoid the poorly timed INTs we saw vs A&M.
Nussmeier is also asked to throw the ball in more adverse situations than Milroe. LSU’s lack of a rushing attack puts pressure on Nussmeier to be LSU’s entire offense. We’ll give the edge to Nussmeier in this area.
Consistency
Neither QB has majored in consistency this year. One moment, Nussmeier will look like the first overall pick and two drives later, he looks like a first year starter.
The same could be said for Milroe. He’ll make game-winning throws to beat Georgia but can look rattled in the passing game when good defenses apply pressure.
Saturday’s contest could very well come down to who gets the best version of their QB. We know both players are capable of a Heisman-level performance, but we could see the polar opposite too.
It’s hard to give either player the edge here, which makes Saturday’s contest hard to predict.
Nussmeier has the edge on passing downs
In obvious passing situations, Nussmeier is the more effective QB. LSU’s passing down success rate of 36% is one of the best marks in the SEC and it has led to LSU being one of the best third-down offenses in the country.
Milroe doesn’t have the same level of production in those situations, with Bama’s success rate sitting at 30% on passing downs. This makes it critical for the Crimson Tide to stay ahead of the chains.
Under pressure
When it comes to handling pressure, the two are roughly even. Nussmeier has a 51.5 PFF passing grade under pressure while Milroe owns a grade of 49.9.
Milroe’s completion percentage is better than Nussmeier’s under pressure, but Nussmeier is more willing to push the ball down field in these spots.
Nussmeier’s real advantage comes from his ability to avoid sacks. He’s taken just three sacks all year while Milroe has 14. That may come as a surprise given Milroe’s mobility edge, but Nussmeier’s quick release makes up for it.
I’ll give the edge at dealing with pressure to Nussmeier.
Success rate, efficiency, and quick game
According to College Football Insiders, LSU has the 10th-best dropback success rate in the country. Just ahead of Alabama at No. 18.
LSU isn’t always explosive, but when Nussmeier is settled down he’s one of the best at taking what the defense gives him to move the chains. We saw this against Arkansas — the Razorbacks gave LSU space and the Tigers used it to methodically march down the field.
Nussmeier’s 55 first downs on short throws lead the SEC. LSU has a quick game that it trusts and it’s come up big with LSU’s struggling rushing attack.
Nussmeier gets the edge here.
Verdict
Again, it’s tough to make a call large in part due to all the variance that comes with these quarterbacks.
If it comes down to needing a game-winning drive late in the fourth, I trust Nussmeier more. He has a knack for showing up on third and fourth and long. But throughout the course of the game, Milroe’s legs add another dimension.
Nussmeier will have the advantage of home field along with an elite pass protection unit. With that in mind, I’ll give LSU the slight edge at QB.
This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: Nussmeier or Milroe? Does LSU or Alabama have the advantage at quarterback