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Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia shares three quick thoughts and a prediction for No. 20 Michigan basketball‘s road game at Purdue on Friday (8 p.m., Fox) in West Lafayette, Indiana.
Meeting the standard
Although the Wolverines (14-4, 6-1 Big Ten) are ahead of Purdue (15-5, 7-2) in the conference standings after the Boilermakers were upset by Ohio State on Tuesday, the coaching staff is paying its respect to the reigning conference champion, which made it all the way to the national title game a season ago.
“They’ve been the standard in the league for the last several years, so we have the utmost respect for their program,” U-M assistant coach Mike Boynton Jr. said Thursday. “We know we’re gonna be going into a really hostile environment, against a really well-coached team. Coming off a loss, they’ll be really highly motivated, obviously trying to stay at the top of the league.
“We’re gonna have to play some really good basketball to give ourselves a chance.”
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Offensively, Purdue is No. 11 in efficiency (122.3), No. 18 on 3-point shooting percentage (38.4%), No. 21 in effective field goals (56.3) and No. 57 on 2-point perfentage(55.4%). Defensively, the Boilermakers are No. 26 in efficiency (96.5) and No. 31 in limiting opponents’ 3-pointers (31.1%).
It’s all because of the system they run, according to U-M head coach Dusty May.
“I think coach (Matt) Painter is one of the best coaches (in the country) in all facets,” May said Monday. “They’ve climbed the mountain, and now they’re managing to stay at the top of the mountain pretty consistently. I can’t say enough good things.”
Head of the snake
Contrary to some narratives, Purdue wasn’t only good because of two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey, now in the NBA. Point guard Braden Smith still continues to run the Boilermakers’ offense at a high level, averaging an efficient 15 points per game and a Big Ten-leading 8.9 assists per night.
“He’s a surgeon,” May said. “His ability to make his teammates better, to make the right play … he never looks tired. He never gets sped up. You rarely see him make even a solid decision; he makes good decisions repeatedly.
“He knows what he’s looking at. His ability to think the game and manipulate your defense. I can go on and on.”
Purdue runs a lot of pick-and-roll action with Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn, a 6-foot-8 forward who has stepped up for Painter’s squad. He leads the team with 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game and U-M is going to have to figure out the best way to defend the action — hard hedges, drop coverage, fighting through, switching no matter what or what’s most likely, some combination of them all.
“We’re gonna play a ton of pick-and-rolls with Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn on Friday, so that’ll put us in a different situation in terms of how much to help,” Boynton said. “They have a lot of really good shooters, so you might have to figure out how to play those pick-and-rolls two-on-two as much as you can, so you also don’t allow Braden Smith to find Fletcher Loyer or five or six 3s, Myles Coving for five or six 3s. Now you’re dealing with too many things at once.
“So, if we can figure out a way to deal with the pick-and-rolls in this particular game two-on-two, that’ll give us the best chance to win.”
Goldin stretching the floor
If U-M is going to pull off the victory, it’s likely going to need to get production on 3-pointers.
Ohio State (11-for-23) got 24 more points on 3s than Purdue (3-for-9) Tuesday and the good news for U-M is that it has an additional 3-point shooter with which to threaten the Boilermakers. Vladislav Goldin, U-M’s 7-foot-1, 250-pound center who didn’t attempt a shot from behind the arc in the first three seasons of his career has now taken at least two tries in five of the past six games.
“As a coach who spends a lot of time focusing on defense, I think about if I had to prepare for us, all the things that I would imagine I have to take into account,” Boynton said. “A month ago, Vlad making 3s wouldn’t have been one of those things.”
That includes Sunday’s game against Northwestern, when he made a career-high three of six attempts. Thatsuccess rate actually dropped his season-long percentage from 60% to 56.3% (9-for-16). It’s just another option for U-M, which Boynton said has to get back to “shooting the way we were” earlier in the season.
Prediction
Tre Donaldson may not be too concerned about the Mackey Arena environment, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a real thing. The Wolverines will be well-rested heading into their biggest game of the season to date and have all the tools necessary to pull off the victory. Will they? Purdue hasn’t lost consecutive home games since February 2020, just weeks before the coronavirus pandemic shut down the season. U-M will come close, but ultimately fall just short. The pick: Purdue 79, U-M 76.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs. Purdue: 3 keys and a pick for top-20 matchup