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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Colorado Rockies play a three-game series at Citi Field starting on Friday night…
Preview
How long can Christian Scott go?
Scott dominated in his last start, firing 5.2 innings of one-hit ball against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, which meant many were surprised when he was pulled at just 77 pitches in a tie game — with the relievers who came in combining to allow five two-out runs that cost the Mets the game.
But it was a confluence of things that led to Scott getting yanked at that point.
Specifically: he had thrown 99 pitches in his prior start after having his innings and pitch count managed in the minors for a month, and he was pitching on regular (four days) rest for the first time as a big leaguer.
What the Mets are — smartly — doing is being incredibly careful with Scott, who threw a career-high 87.2 innings in the minors last season and has already thrown 81.1 innings this season between Triple-A Syracuse and the majors.
Once Kodai Senga returns — possibly after two more rehab starts — New York will be going to a six-man rotation, which will allow them to space out Scott’s starts while reducing the innings he would otherwise throw in a five-man rotation.
What could this mean for the deadline?
The Mets enter the final series before the All-Star break in a place where they wanted to be before the season started: in serious contention for a playoff spot.
But while president of baseball operations David Stearns added some bullpen help earlier this week — trading with the Rays for Phil Maton — he said a few hours after that deal that he hasn’t made a decision regarding what the Mets’ plan will be ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.
Two things can be true here.
The first is that there is no reason for Stearns to tip his hand.
The second is that if the Mets keep playing solid baseball, there is close to zero chance they’ll trade anyone of significance at the deadline (save for perhaps moving one starting pitcher on an expiring contract if they deem their depth to be in a good enough spot).
But in order for the Mets to keep hammering home to the front office that they should buy or hold, they can’t fall flat against bad teams like the Rockies.
Brandon Nimmo is on fire
Nimmo, who along with Francisco Lindor was a stunning omission from the National League roster for the All-Star Game, is on an otherworldly tear.
Nimmo is hitting .311/.388/.600 with nine homers, 10 doubles, 32 runs scored, and 33 RBI in 152 plate appearances over 34 games dating back to May 31.
He added to his torrid stretch against the Nats on Thursday afternoon, ripping a three-run double.
Overall this season, Nimmo is slashing .252/.365/.466 with an .831 OPS and 140 OPS+.
To put how good he has been into perspective: Nimmo is third among NL outfielders in OPS, behind only Christian Yelich (.936) and Jurickson Profar (.891). And he is third among NL outfielders in home runs (16), behind only Bryan Reynolds (17) and Teoscar Hernandez (19).
Nimmo is on pace to finish the season with 28 homers, 32 doubles, 104 runs scored, and 109 RBI.
Jose Quintana has been dominant
Quintana entered his start on June 15 with a 5.29 ERA. Since then, he’s been incredible.
In 30.1 innings over his last five starts, Quintana has allowed just four runs (three earned) on 17 hits while walking 10 and striking out 27.
Just as importantly, he has pitched deep in four of those five starts.
Quintana tossed 7.0 innings in his last two games, and threw 6.0 and 6.1 in the two that started this recent stretch.
Along the way, Quintana — who gets the start on Sunday — has lowered his ERA to 3.91.
The Rockies are exceptionally bad
Any team can win on any given day, no matter how bad they are and no matter who they’re playing — as evidenced by the Rockies recently taking a series from the Royals and splitting a four-game set with the Brewers.
But Colorado is a triple whammy of awful.
Their 386 runs scored are fourth-worst in the NL, their 553 runs allowed are by far the worst in the majors, and their -167 run differential is the worst in the majors.
Yes, some of the Rockies’ runs allowed and poor run differential can be blamed on them having to play their home games in the thin air of Coors Field.
But this is a very bad baseball team, and the Mets need to take advantage of that.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Lindor has cooled off just a tad over the last week and change, but still has a pair of recent three-hit games.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Christian Scott.
Scott has been mostly dominant over 11.1 innings in his two starts since being called back up.
His one mistake (and only hit allowed) during his last start was a two-run homer off the bat of Oneil Cruz, and he was arguably pushed too long in his start before that — with him surrendering a back-breaking three-run homer to Luis Garcia Jr. on the 99th and final pitch he threw.
Which Rockies player will be a thorn in Mets’ side?
The 26-year-old is having a breakout season after a rough rookie campaign, is coming off an NL Player of the Week award, and is one of the bright spots in Colorado’s lineup.