Inside The Numbers: Islanders Blowing Leads Is A Problem That Patrick Roy Hasn’t Solved Yet

NHL

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This past Friday and Saturday, the New York Islanders split their first back-to-back of the season, beating the New Jersey Devils 4-3 in overtime before losing 6-3 to the defending Stanley Cup Florida Panthers on Saturday.

While the results were different, there was a commonality.

Against New Jersey, the Islander failed to hold onto their slim 3-2 lead, allowing a Jesper Bratt tying goal with 1:29 to play in regulation before Bo Horvat scored the game-winner in overtime.

On Saturday, the Islanders jumped on the Panthers early, going up 3-0 at 11:41 of the first, only to allow six unanswered goals in what was an utter collapse.

Saturday was the second time this season the Islanders led but lost, and the fourth time in eight games where they lost a lead.

They had two third-period leads against the Utah Hockey Club in their season opener, allowing the 3-3 tying goal with 12:23 to play in the third and the 4-4 tying goal with 1:43 to play in the third, only to lose 5-4 in overtime.

Against the Montreal Canadiens on Oct. 19, a game that ended after a nine-round shootout, the Islanders led twice, 2-0 and 3-2, before allowing the third-period tying goal with 2:10 to play in regulation.

The team’s struggles with holding leads, losing 23 games in 2023-24 in which they had a lead, was supposed to be a thing of the past after a Patrick Roy training camp.

Of those 23 games, seven of those losses came after Roy took over for Lane Lambert on Jan. 19, per MSGSN statistician Eric Hornick.

Blowing leads was a trend last year. Now, it’s a full-fledged problem.

Diving deeper into the numbers, the Islanders have had 10 leads this season and have failed to hold those lead nine times.

The only game in which the Islanders led at any point and held the lead was in their 6-2 win against the Colorado Avalanche on Oct. 14.

No, that’s not a typo. Here’s the breakdown:

UTAH: 3 leads, blew all 3

MTL: 2 lead, 1 multi-goal lead, blew both

COL: 1 lead, won

NJD: 3 leads, blew all 3

FLA: 1 lead, 3-goal lead, blew it

In the other three games on the docket, the Islanders were shut out.

Here’s what Casey Cizikas said following Saturday’s debacle:

“We have to address [the blown leads] as a group. That’s something that starts in here, and it starts with, first off, a conversation and going over where those mistakes are and what we can do better. But it’s something that we’ve got to figure out.”

The most frustrating part for the Islanders is that if they held onto these leads, they could be as opposed to 3-3-2.

That would have them 5-2-1, sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division heading into a week where they face the Anaheim Ducks (3-4-1), the Columbus Blue Jackets (3-3-1) and the Buffalo Sabres (4-4-1).

Holding their leads would have also meant that they would still be trailing the New York Rangers (6-1-1, 13 P) and the Devils by two points since New Jersey wouldn’t have 14 through 12 games (6-4-2) but 13 with four games in hand.

It’s not realistic to go 82 games and hold onto every lead. Even the best teams in the NHL fail to close out games a handful of times a season.

But given how close the Metro and Eastern Wild-Card races have been, the Islanders’ failing to lock up points the way they have makes their path to the playoff that much tougher.

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