Dayton or Nevada? How to pick 7 vs. 10 matchup in 2024 March Madness bracket

There is not much that differs a 7 seed from a 10 seed at the NCAA Tournament in typical years. As fans have seen, this 2024 season of basketball has been far from normal, making it all the more harder to decipher March Madness matchups. 

In the West Region, 7-seed Dayton matches up with 10-seed Nevada at the 2024 tournament. Both programs are coming off disappointing postseason endings after strong regular seasons. 

Dayton (24-7, 14-4 Atlantic-10) came up short in the Atlantic 10 tournament, losing to Duquesne in the quarterfinals as the No. 3 seed. The loss was the Flyers’ third in the last seven games, marking a rocky end to an otherwise solid campaign. 

Meanwhile, Nevada (26-7, 13-5 MWC) is fresh off a loss in the Mountain West quarterfinals, falling to No. 7 seed Colorado State. The upset defeat snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Wolfpack, who ended the regular season on a high note, nabbing the No. 2 seed in the conference. 

However, it’s a clean slate now, and both programs are eyeing a spot in the second round with a win in Salt Lake City. 

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup between Dayton and Nevada, including metrics, rankings, key players, season breakdowns and more.

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Dayton vs. Nevada odds

Dayton vs. Nevada will be played Thursday, March 21, the first day of the Round of 64. Nevada opens as a betting favorite, per BetMGM, despite being the lower seed. 

Below are the details of the game, including betting odds, time, TV and venue:

• Odds: Nevada (-1.5)
• Date: Thursday, March 21
• Time: 4:30 p.m.
• TV: TBS
• Arena: Delta Center, Salt Lake City

Dayton (24-7, 14-4 Atlantic-10) 

For the first time since 2017, the Dayton Flyers are dancing. In head coach Anthony Grant’s seventh season, Dayton is back in March Madness after a strong showing in the Atlantic 10 this year. 

Dayton is one of a number of teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a stunning upset loss early in the conference playoffs. The Flyers posted an overall record of 24-7 and a conference mark of 14-4 to finish third in the conference regular season. However, the team suffered a quarterfinals defeat at the hands of Duquesne, who ran the table at the Barclays Center as a sixth seed, earning a bid to the dance.

Paving the way for the Flyers is DaRon Holmes II, a junior who is a Naismith College Player of the Year semifinalist and Atlantic 10 Co-Player of the Year. The 6-10 center is the only player in Division I level who has more than 65 blocks, 65 dunks and 65 assists this season, averaging 20.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. 

On its resume are notable wins over St. John’s at the Charleston Classic, Cincinnati . Davidson hasn’t lost back-to-back games all year, bouncing back in the next contest each of the four times it occurred in the regular season. The Flyers will have to keep that trend in its 19th all-time NCAA Tournament. 

This is the 19th appearance all-time for Dayton, who have not won an NCAA tournament game since its run to the Elite Eight in 2014. However, you have to consider the tournament-less 2019-20 season where Obi Toppin led the Flyers to what could have been a No. 1 seed in March Madness. 

• NET ranking: 23
• KenPom ranking: 32
• Quad 1 record: 3-4
• Quad 2 record: 5-3
• Quad 3 record: 9-0
• Quad 4 record: 7-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 18
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 87

Key players

DaRon Holmes II, F, Jr. (6-10, 235): 20.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.6 apg

Nate Santos, F, Jr. (6-7, 210): 10.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.5 apg

Koby Brea, G, Jr. (6-6, 205): 10.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg

Kobe Elvis, G, Jr. (6-2, 180): 9.5 ppg, 3.56 apg, 2.5 rpg

Enoch Cheeks, G, Jr. (6-3, 195): 8.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg

MORE: Buy tickets to 2024 March Madness games

Nevada (26-7, 13-5 MWC) 

Nevada is back in the dance after a first four appearance last year in March Madness, breaking a four-year streak without a NCAA tournament berth. This year, the Wolfpack comes in as a No. 10 seed that may be ranked lower than expected. 

Like Dayton, Steve Alford’s Nevada team was one-and-done in conference tournament play. After recording a 13-5 record in Mountain West regular season play, the Wolfpack fell to No. 7 seed Colorado State in the conference quarterfinals. It snapped the team’s seven game winning streak and it marked the squad’s second loss since the start of February. 

On its resume, Nevada secured quality wins over Mountain West opponents such as New Mexico, San Jose State and Colorado State, and also defeated TCU at the Diamond Head Classic in December.

Seniors guards Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas are the players to watch for the Wolfpack. Blackshear is averaging 15.1 points a game while also recording just under five rebounds and assists per contest. Lucas is the scoring leader, averaging 17.8 points per game and shooting nearly 90% from the free throw line. 

The 2024 berth marks the 13th in Alford’s career. He became the fourth coach to take five different Division I schools to the dance, and a win would make him only the second one to win a tournament game at five different programs. 

• NET ranking: 34
• KenPom ranking: 36
• Quad 1 record: 6-6
• Quad 2 record: 2-0
• Quad 3 record: 8-1
• Quad 4 record: 8-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 40
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 36

Key players

Kenan Blackshear, G, Sr. (6-6, 215): 15.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.9 apg

Jarod Lucas, G, Sr. (6-4, 195): 17.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 rpg

Nick Davidson, F, Soph. (6-9, 215): 12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.4 apg

Tre Coleman, F, Sr. (6-7, 185): 8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg

Daniel Foster, G, Sr. (6-6, 215): 4.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg

EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)

Dayton vs. Nevada prediction

This matchup is going to come down to who can perform better from beyond the arc. Dayton ranks third in the nation in 3-point percentage (40.2), one of only three teams at the Division I level to shoot at least 40% from deep, joining Kentucky and Purdue.

While the Flyers have one of the most dominant big men in the country, Holmes II is surrounded by shooters as well. Nate Santos and Koby Brea are dangerous weapons on the perimeter for Grants’s coalition. 

Nevada is no stranger to success from range either. The Wolfpack shot 36.5% from 3-point distance this season, however, it was not the go-to option for the team. Nevada attempted just 18.3 3-pointers per game, ranking among the lowest in the nation. It may not be the best idea for the Wolfpack to go toe-to-toe from the arc with the Flyers, but if they need to, they have shooters like Jarod Lucas and Hunter McIntosh. 

The Wolfpack come into the contest the hotter squad, winning 11 of their last 12 matchups. The offense has scored at least 70 points in seven consecutive contests, and it’s been a spread of wealth, not just one player. The same can’t necessarily be said about Dayton, as DaRon Holmes II has led the Flyers in scoring four games in a row and seven of their last eight. 

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 7 vs. 10 matchups in NCAA Tournament

Overall, No. 7 seeds hold a 92-59 advantage over No. 10 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. 

However, it’s worth noting that the No. 10 seeds’ 50 wins are the most of any lower-seeded team over a higher-seeded team in the first round, per NCAA.com. The lower seed in this matchup has won roughly 39 percent of the games.

It’s also worth noting that a No. 10 seed has won at least one game in each NCAA Tournament since 2008, when Steph Curry led Davidson to an upset win over Gonzaga before a storybook run to the Elite Eight.

Below is a breakdown of the wins 10-seeds have posted over 7-seeds since 2009: