Davion Mitchell is this draft’s most NBA-ready prospect

Davion Mitchell became a household name this March thanks to his NCAA tournament heroics as the engine powering Baylor’s title run. He posted 15 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists in 35 minutes in a win over undefeated Gonzaga and projected top-five pick Jalen Suggs, earning fans nationwide with his defensive intensity, burst, vision and shotmaking ability.

Even NBA players took notice, with the Portland Trail Blazers‘ Damian Lillard tweeting at Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell, “you play for Baylor bra? I’m confused lol.”

Despite clear similarities and a friendship and mutual respect between the two — they share the same agent — Davion Mitchell is no Donovan Mitchell clone. Nor is he an NCAA tournament darling who rose up draft boards as a product of the recency bias that comes along with a strong late-season performance.

From grueling open runs at Shuman Recreation Center in his hometown of Hinesville, Georgia, to 4 a.m. workouts in Waco, Texas, to relentless film study with Baylor graduate assistants, Mitchell’s journey is a story of resilience and player development. Unseen hours laid the foundation both mentally and physically for Mitchell’s transformation from a lightly used freshman at Auburn battling up-and-down confidence as a shooter to a 6-foot-1 star who instantly lifts the level of any workout, practice or game he’s involved in and is now projected to be a top-10 pick.

As Baylor assistant coach John Jakus told ESPN over the phone, “He’s relentless.”

The journey

Jakus, head coach Scott Drew and the rest of Baylor’s staff sat in the film room in Waco evaluating Mitchell, a potential transfer who had just finished a mediocre freshman season at Auburn during which he averaged 3.7 points in 17.1 minutes per game.

The 57th-rated recruit in the nation out of high school impressed with his defensive quickness and toughness. But he’d made just 4 of 19 shots off the dribble in the half court, and needed to overhaul his pull-up footwork and reads and trim down his frame. Still, his lateral quickness, foot speed and energy left Drew and his staff intrigued enough to make a push for Mitchell.

“We needed a ball hawking guard because we were going from playing zone and man to seeing if we could get more modern and switch,” Jakus said. “He just ticked all those boxes.”

The defensive toughness that Baylor saw on film is deeply rooted, and largely a product of his hometown of Hinesville — home to just over 30,000 people. Hinesville, located 45 minutes outside of Savannah, is described as a military town and has produced multiple professional athletes, including Miami Dolphins linebacker Raekwon McMillan, Cleveland Browns safety Richard LeCounte III, and Jordan McRae, who played 123 games for five teams in the NBA and won a ring with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016.

“If you were really to rewind it back, Hinesville, Georgia, is probably the prime reason he is what he is today because of how he was raised,” said Justin Young, brother of Phoenix Suns assistant coach Kevin Young and a highly respected talent evaluator who has been scouting Mitchell since he was 13 years old. “If somebody calls me and says, ‘Hey, there’s a kid down in Hinesville, I don’t need to read the rest of the sentence, I’m already in the car.”

After Mitchell led Baylor to a national title, his hometown held a parade for him and officially gave him the keys to the city.

Mitchell, who had a ball in his hands since age 4, was built to compete. He had three uncles who all played basketball, participated in spirited runs at the Shuman Rec Center and battled fellow Georgia native Collin Sexton. The mentality he developed led to an illustrious high school career and a class 4A state title his junior season. Despite having success with the Georgia Stars AAU team alongside Chuma Okeke, the only camp Mitchell was ever invited to was the NBPA Top-100 Camp. Young jokingly compared him to the Beatles’ George Harrison — an underappreciated member of a successful group who was likely the creative genius behind it all.

Once he arrived at Auburn, Mitchell instantly opened eyes with his defense, speed and approach to the game.

“Incredible kid,” said Auburn assistant coach Steven Pearl. “Worked his ass off. Great teammate. Very coachable. Loved the kid to death.”

Mitchell was set to be Auburn’s starting point guard heading into his freshman campaign, but sophomore guard Jared Harper played so well during a preseason overseas tour that he ultimately won the job, with Mitchell serving more as an energizing, defensive-oriented backup.

In search of a fresh start and more on-ball duties after his freshman season, Mitchell transferred to Baylor, and it didn’t take long for the Baylor staff to realize what they had in Mitchell during his sit-out year. There were times when Baylor standout guard Jared Butler struggled to get the ball across half court against the stout defender during practices. Even Baylor alums who came back during the summers were blown away by his defensive intensity, quickness and willingness to defend 94 feet in pickup games.

“If we’re playing 1 on 1, I just want to guard,” Mitchell told us of his love for defense. “Even if he scores it’s like, bro I really want to guard, I want to get better. You’ve gotta be able to guard now. Everybody can score the basketball. What makes you different? That’s what made me different throughout this whole draft, I think I play the best defense in the country.”

That mentality never left Mitchell, the 2020-21 National Defensive Player of the Year who said he’d much prefer to get a stop to win a game than make a buzzer-beating shot. From Young watching him with the Coastal Crew Rebels as a 13-year-old to former NBA veteran Don MacLean working with him in LA now, Mitchell’s defensive identity has been front and center at every stop.

“He’s been unbelievable,” said MacLean, who is training a group that includes Mitchell, Keon Johnson, Isaiah Jackson, Day’Ron Sharpe and Roko Prkacin. “He’s the best backcourt defender I’ve ever had, and I’ve been doing this for 15, 17 years. He’s elite defensively at his size.”

While it was clear he was always going to be an elite defender with his stellar balance, strong base, mentality and excellent technique, it wasn’t until Mitchell fell in love with film study that he started to fully blossom as an offensive player and legitimate NBA prospect.

Film sessions

As we finished up an interview outside of Mendocino Farms in Westlake Village, California, Mitchell pulled out his phone to show me recent edits he’d been watching. His latest fascination was Lillard. He showed me different edits of Lillard hopping into pull-up 3s from 35 feet with a big man dropped in pick-and-roll, raving about Lillard’s balance, range and confidence.

During our ESPN Film Session, we talked for more than 90 minutes about Mitchell’s tape and all different guards from Donovan Mitchell — his favorite player to watch — to Lillard to Chris Paul to Ja Morant to Kemba Walker, and defenders such as Jevon Carter, Patrick Beverley, Jrue Holiday and Marcus Smart. Mitchell was engaged the entire session, soaking up every bit of information along the way. He remembers virtually every possession of his junior season. He’ll call out player tendencies, like Kansas big man David McCormack regularly bringing the ball down in traffic or Oklahoma guard Austin Reaves liking to jab right and drive left off the catch. He broke down Cade Cunningham’s shimmy move before driving right, something Mitchell diagnosed on his way to a steal and a charge during the Big 12 tournament.

Consuming an inordinate amount of film has become as big a part of his daily routine as eating, hydration and dribbling a basketball.

“I love basketball so I love watching that stuff,” Mitchell said. “It’s fun for me. It’s not, ‘Oh I gotta watch film,’ it’s ‘I get to watch film now.'”

Alongside guard MaCio Teague, who transferred to Baylor the same time as him, Mitchell became obsessed with perfecting his craft and studying NBA guards along the way. One week it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pick-and-roll. The next week it was Paul. Then there was his own film from practice. Whether it was tape from a practice or a game, Mitchell watched every single ball screen he was involved in during his entire time at Baylor.

He forged an unbreakable bond with Baylor graduate assistants Rem Bakamus and Matt Gray, who Mitchell regularly credits for his development. Eventually branded the “4 a.m. crew,” he and Teague would arrive at the gym well before the sun rose, getting in an early workout, then practicing, then coming back at night to make 300 3-pointers and work on the passes that they struggled with on the film from practice that day. Mitchell lived in an apartment right across from the gym with the intent of having easy access to around-the-clock development.

Baylor’s goal was to give Mitchell, who’d demonstrated his thirst for knowledge and willingness to learn, all the information necessary to dissect any type of pick-and-roll coverage, programming reads into his brain through countless hours of film study and on-court repetition.

“What we did for him is we tried to make him into a quarterback,” Jakus added. “That’s the thing he bought into more than other people who think feel isn’t learnable. He thought feel was learnable, and he became addicted to learning it.”

By the time the NCAA tournament rolled around, Mitchell was making all the pick=and-roll reads you’ll see from NBA All-Star point guards, with Jakus describing it as “almost like he was floating over the floor.” He’d set up his man in pick-and-roll with the patience and poise of an NBA vet. He could hit the roll man with timely pocket passes. He’d manipulate defenders with his eyes. He could fire passes to the weakside corner shooter if the tag man was helping on the roller at the rim. On top of all that, he could reject the ball screen with his elite burst, unleashing a through-the-legs move that nobody could defend all season.

“I’ve been doing this move since I was in middle school,” Mitchell said during our film session. “You can ask anyone. If you watch my AAU, high school, middle school, Georgia Stars, I’m doing this move.”

Oh, and that porous pull-up shooting that plagued him coming into Baylor? No player in high-major basketball was more efficient on pull-up jumpers than Mitchell last season, who scored 1.14 points per possession on 101 attempts. Step-backs, crossovers, crossover step-back combos, hesitations, you name it, Mitchell added it to his bag by studying NBA greats.

He has been able to sit down with and pick the brain of Paul, talking to him about taking care of his body, screening angles, pocket passes and much more. He has forged a great relationship with Donovan Mitchell, who gives him tips about recovery. He’s no longer eating the Canes fried chicken that he ate in college, now doing hot yoga and maximizing his physical abilities.

As evident from watching him go through a shooting workout in L.A. recently, Mitchell does every rep with force and purpose. He’s vocal. He’s a coach on the floor. From talking to those who have been around him at virtually every level, it’s clear Mitchell is one of the most respected prospects I’ve ever evaluated. The words competitor, hardworking and toughness all surface in every conversation, which is in part where the Donovan Mitchell comparison comes in.

“I think the real similarity is just how good of people they are, which matters,” MacLean said. “How they treat others in the gym, how they treat the sports performance staff, that maturity in being a good dude along with being a really good basketball player. Donovan was off the charts in that regard, and Davion is right there with him.”

As was the case with Donovan Mitchell, Davion Mitchell’s rate of improvement is close to unprecedented. As ESPN’s Adam Finkelstein told me about Donovan Mitchell back in 2018, “What used to be very obvious liabilities are now budding strengths.”

Davion Mitchell has gone from a sped-up driver to a quality playmaker, posting a 2.3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season. He went from a limited perimeter shooter with inconsistent footwork to one of the most well-balanced off-the-dribble shotmakers in the draft. It’s a trajectory you rarely see in the basketball world at any level, and so much of it can be traced back to those 4 a.m. mornings, daily video edits and simply the way Mitchell is wired coming out of Hinesville.

“Davion figured out that he was really good and that he was really close to being great,” Jakus said. “He realized he could be great, the switch went on and it was over. He doesn’t want to be good. He wants to be the best.”

How does it all project?

Mitchell naysayers will point to his age, as he’ll turn 23 years old on Sept. 5. The list of players Mitchell’s age or older drafted in the top 10 since 2000 isn’t entirely encouraging: Randy Foye, Shane Battier, Buddy Hield, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh and Rafael Araujo. His listed height of 6-foot-2 seems generous, and he doesn’t have great length, which is certainly a factor in Donovan Mitchell’s success (6-foot-11 wingspan).

Analytics models will wonder just how good of a 3-point shooter he truly is given the fact that he never cracked 70% from the free throw line over the course of his three-year NCAA career. He’s a projected second-rounder, according to Kevin Pelton’s consensus model — which takes into account his top-100 ranking — largely because it heavily weighs his first two NCAA seasons.

But this is usually where scouting mistakes are made. If NBA evaluators put more stock in Donovan Mitchell’s ability to improve and turn deficiencies into strengths, there’s no way a player with his explosiveness, length and scoring ability would have fallen to No. 13 in the draft behind names such as Malik Monk, Zach Collins, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina and Josh Jackson. While Davion Mitchell clearly doesn’t have quite the same physical traits as Donovan Mitchell, they’re wired in a similar fashion.

“He has an aptitude to improve, and to me that upside is more important than, I’m 18 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and I have upside because you actually don’t know if he has the aptitude to improve,” said Jakus, who argued no player in the basketball world has improved more than Mitchell over the past three years. “You know for sure when you draft Davion that he has the aptitude to improve.”

I’ll never forget watching Donovan Mitchell lead post-workout sprints at the University of Illinois-Chicago gym just days before the NBA draft combine in 2017. During that same week, I remember one high-ranking executive telling me Mitchell was the best interview he’d ever had during all his time in the NBA. With the 2021 draft combine right around the corner, I’m expecting to hear a similar sentiment about Davion Mitchell from NBA executives this time around.

He has been a winner everywhere he has gone. He has made the gym his home over the past few years. He checks every single box from an intangible and competitiveness standpoint. When you consider his two-way impact, his game tape is as impressive as any other prospect in the draft.

Will he end up as some type of mini-Donovan Mitchell and a perennial All-Star? Will he have a career closer to that of Kyle Lowry, or make an impact as a smaller Holiday? Can he be Walker on the offensive end of the floor? Time will tell, but if they don’t know already, NBA scouts will soon find out that Mitchell is the draft’s most NBA-ready prospect, a starter from day one with future All-Star potential, and someone they’d be wise to bet on even if he defies conventional scouting logic.

“Obviously I think I’m the best guard in this class,” Mitchell said. “It’s just a confidence thing. Everybody’s going to think that. I just want to be the most ready. I want to be the most ready guy in the draft. I just want to get better at something every day.”