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The similarly-configured, 1.5-milers have long been the most prevalent type of track on the circuit. While the drivers will tell you that each races distinctly different from the others, the proof in their similarity to bettors and handicappers is apparent in the list of drivers who consistently dominate them.
Last year there were 11 races on the 1.5-milers. NASCAR reorganized the calendar in 2021 to make room for more road course races and that number has shrunk to nine, but that still represents 25 percent of the available events. This is a track type that must be respected if a driver wants to qualify for the championship.
Three very important races are held during the final 10 weeks, which makes it equally important in winning the Cup.
Three races have been run on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks so far: the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Three different winners have been victorious – which is unsurprising since only Martin Truex Jr. has posted more than one win so far in 2021; he is not among the 1.5-mile winners.
The remaining active similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks are Charlotte Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, and Kansas Speedway. Chicagoland Speedway and Kentucky Speedway fell off the schedule this year and neither hosted a race in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions.
Next on the calendar is the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas – an event whose name was voted on by fans. Presumably: mostly millennials.
William Byron was the surprise winner at Homestead. Less surprising, but still not the favorite, Kyle Larson won at Vegas and Ryan Blaney won at Atlanta. With six similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track races remaining, it’s time to turn our focus on who might be next.
“Cookie-Cutter” Kings
The rapid rise of the 1.5-milers around the turn of the century gave rise to the derisive nickname, “cookie-cutter” tracks. While track officials hate the moniker, it is helpful to lump these courses together.
Truex has been the “Cookie-Cutter” king in recent years. His last 22 attempts on this course type while he was still racing for car owner Barney Visser resulted in 21 top-10s. Eight of these were victories. His top-10 percentage has fallen off with Joe Gibbs Racing, but a large part of that is because of the parity NASCAR has successfully introduced to the sport.
In 25 races 1.5-mile races with Gibbs, Truex has 19 top-10s including the las seven consecutive. He’s only won twice in that span, however, with victories at Charlotte and Vegas in 2019. Last fall, he came close with a runner-up finish to teammate Kyle Busch at Texas.
Truex is due a win and hungry after last week’s disappointing Geico 500.
Kevin Harvick has also been impressive on 1.5-milers during his career. He has 17 wins on this course type in 209 starts. A total of 71 top-fives gives him a percentage of .340. Ten of these came in the last 18 races, which improves his recent number to .556.
If Truex is hungry, Harvick is starving. He won nine times in 2020 and has not yet shown himself capable of repeating in 2021.
That cannot go on, however; it’s not a matter of if, but when Harvick will win. This week is a good time to place a bet on his with current odds of +900 at PointsBet Sportsbook. So long as he is above +750, he should be part of your weekly scheme.
Kyle Busch is another driver due a win. His stats in 2021 are much more impressive than Harvick’s since he is one of just three drivers to sweep the top 10 in the first three “cookie-cutter” races. He finished 10th at Homestead, third at Vegas, and fifth at Atlanta. His only win last year came at Texas when he closed at +800. This week he would be a lot more profitable at +1200.
Along with Truex and Busch, Larson is the other driver to sweep the top 10 this year. In fact, he has a perfect record of top-fives and with a ninth at Vegas last spring before his suspension, he has a four race top-10 streak going. Larson had the best car at Atlanta earlier this year before he was overtaken by Blaney, who managed his tires better.
Perhaps the driver with the best recent 1.5-mile record is one with surprisingly long odds. Alex Bowman is listed at +2000 this week, which ranks him 11th on that chart. He is a great longshot with those odds since he has top-10 finishes in six of his last seven attempts on this course type – four of those were top-fives. Bowman’s first Cup win came at Chicagoland in 2019.
Brad Keselowski also cannot be ignored. He became the ninth different winner at Talladega last week and has momentum on his side. He was all-but perfect on 1.5-milers last year with 10 top-10s in 11 starts that included a win in the Coke 600. Unfortunately oddsmakers are aware of his strength and rank him fourth on the chart with a +850.
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