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The 153rd Belmont Stakes marks the final leg of the Triple Crown. Essential Quality, who finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s race. Post time is 6:49 p.m. ET. Rombauer upset Medina Spirit, winner (for now) of the Kentucky Derby, to take the Preakness.
Here is a breakdown of every horse in the Belmont Stakes, suggested plays and picks.
Note: Horses listed in order of post position (trainer, jockey in parentheses).
Chris Fallica’s guide to the field
1. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche) 15-1
Broke maiden for 50K, couldn’t win a first level optional claimer at Parx, then shocked everyone by winning the Wood at 72-1. Predictably was a nonfactor in the Derby and certainly isn’t a win contender here. It’s not a big field, so use the all button for third in the trifecta and see if he can clunk up for a piece.
2. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Luis Saez) 2-1
Will attempt to join Empire Maker as the only beaten Derby favorite to skip the Preakness and win the Belmont. Suffered his first career loss in the Derby, but certainly didn’t run a bad race after a little trouble at the start and being on the outside (worst) part of the track. His stalking style near the pace is the preferred trip to win this race, not the far back from off the pace closer. My only question is, as it is with so many of these in this race, “Can he go this far?” My hunch is he runs a good race but there’s one in here that runs a better race. From a betting standpoint, I’ll key him second and third in trifectas and superfectas and hope I land on the winner.
3. Rombauer (Michael McCarthy, John Velazquez) 3-1
Trying to become the first horse to win the Preakness and Belmont after not starting in the Derby under the current continuous order of the Triple Crown. Where did that come from in Baltimore? I thought he would factor in the tri, but I didn’t see a 14-point Beyer jump and a Preakness win. While he could come right back and win — and give John Velazquez two Triple Crown wins with two different horses this year — I think we’re going to learn that race was a bit of an outlier benefiting from a bad field and a fast pace. There have been five Preakness winners sent off at least 11-1 that ran back in the Belmont. The only one to win was favored Little Current in 1974. He has been well behind Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie when he has faced elite horses in this 3-year-old crop. I was a bit surprised to see he was the second choice on the morning line, and I think he could be the fourth choice come Saturday. I’ll use underneath in the exotics, and if he wins, I lose. If anyone but Rombauer wins the Belmont, it will mark the third straight year, the fifth time in six years and the ninth time in the last 13 years that we had three different winners in the three Triple Crown races.
4. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Flavien Prat) 7-2
Flavien Prat jumps off the Preakness winner to reunite with the third-place (now second-place) finisher in the Derby. That should be a tell right there. Prat already is one of two jockeys to win a Derby and a Preakness aboard a horse sent off at double-digit odds and now can become the first jockey since Calvin Borel in 2009 to win Triple Crown races on two different horses in a single year. Hot Rod Charlie might have been the best in the Derby, given the traffic and the outside run. He has the right running style, a great jockey, been right there with Essential Quality and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he winds up in the winner’s circle on Saturday. Favorites have won just one of the last eight Triple Crown races, and this one could continue that trend.
5. France Go de Ina (Hideyuki Mori, Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
My guess is this horse is going to stay in the U.S. with new connections after the Belmont and that’s why he’s running. Because he has no shot at all. I applaud them running a healthy, sound horse though. Like I said earlier, I’ll hit the all button for third and fourth in trifectas and superfectas, but I’ll probably play a narrower ticket and leave this one off altogether.
6. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
I didn’t like him Derby Day and the rail draw made it easy for me to totally throw him out. I still don’t like the horse here, but the fact it’s a short field and Todd Pletcher is back on his home turf means I will have to include him underneath in exactas and trifectas. We’ve seen many a Pletcher Derby flop come back off five weeks rest and bounce back with a great effort in the Belmont — see Tapwrit, Destin and Palace Malice as examples. So that’s what I’m guarding against here. Pletcher has three wins and 12 in-the-money finishes from 30 Belmont starters and two wins and nine in-the-money finishes from 69 Derby and Preakness starters. So the “home-field advantage” is real. But my instinct is this horse isn’t a real win contender, despite a grinding type running style that works at this distance.
7. Rock Your World (John Sadler, Joel Rosario) 9-2
His Derby was over before he even left the starting gate, as Joel Rosario came out of the irons. Throw that race out and go back to your opinion of him prior to the Derby and that’s what it should be here. And I liked him entering the Derby. And I liked his Santa Anita Derby. And I think there is an excellent chance he’s left alone on the lead here, and that makes him very dangerous in here. And his price could be better here than it was in the Derby. Jockey Joel Rosario has had eight Belmont mounts, and five have finished either first, second or third. Rosario has two wins, a second and two thirds in the Belmont Stakes. With a win he can become the 11th jockey to win three. There is a lot to like here, and I think he and Hot Rod Charlie are the two most likely winners. I’m using him all over my tickets.
8. Overtook (Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco) 20-1
It’s Belmont and owner Mike Repole wants to see his horse run. And that’s fine. He’s the third Pletcher runner and adds blinkers in here, as I’m guessing he will be sacrificed on the lead to try and ensure Rock Your World doesn’t go it alone. Although, he did have blinkers on in his first two lifetime starts and that didn’t result in him being on the lead. He has no shot to win and will only be on my ticket by way of the all button in my exotics. Talk about both ends of the extremes — last year jockey Manny Franco rode winner Tis the Law. This year he’s on the second longest shot on the board.
Fallica’s suggested plays
Here are some suggested plays. Play what your budget and confidence allows. Good luck!
Anita Marks’ picks
2. Essential Quality 2-1
Was the best horse coming into the Derby, but had an unfortunate start at the gate coming from the 14th post. His sire is Tapit, who has sired three of the last six Belmont Stakes winners. He bypassed the Preakness, so he is coming in very rested and ready.
6. Known Agenda 6-1
Got an unlucky post at the Derby (first),but he should eat up this mile and a half. His blinkers have helped him win the Florida Derby, and I expect him to win, place or show Saturday.
3. Rombauer 3-1
Rombauer finished third in the Bluegrass behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. He will have John Velazquez on the saddle Saturday, which gives you even more value.
8. Overtook 20-1
A Todd Pletcher horse, and Curlin is his sire. He has improved from race to race and has the right pedigree to stretch out and thrive at a mile and a half.
Plays
Win
2. Essential Quality 2-1
Win/Place/Show
6. Known Agenda
Exacta box (2-6-3-8)
Essential Quality
Known Agenda
Rombauer
Overtook