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The Auburn Tigers are coming off an extremely disconcerting loss in week two against ACC opponent California. Hugh Freeze’s offense came into week two riding a high of scoring 70+ points against Alabama A&M, but could not muster anything of note following an early scripted-drive touchdown. The effort was so sub-par that questions surrounding Payton Thorne‘s status as the starting quarterback have risen, and the Tigers chances of going bowling this season seem to be at an all-time low.
Auburn’s week two loss included 5 offensive turnovers (4 interceptions), just 286 offensive yards from scrimmage, and a below-average defensive effort that led Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza to pass for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns on a near 70% completion percentage. The total breakdown by the Tigers caused them to slide heavily in ESPN FPI, as the ranking now lists Auburn at No. 25 overall, 9 spots below its week one ranking.
The FPI ranks each college football team by a variety of factors; Strength of record, strength of schedule, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and overall efficiency.
Here is where Auburn ranks in each category ahead of the Tigers’ week three matchup with New Mexico at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Overall Ranking: No. 25
Calling Auburn’s week two performance “not good” may be too optimistic of a term. Unfortunaley the Tigers can’t use a “BIC Correction Stick” to “white out” their performance in the game in which they asked students to freeze the Plains. Auburn did not pass the eye test or the metric tests, as the 21-14 snoozer dropped Hugh Freeze’s team down to No. 25 in the FPI.
Auburn now ranks ahead of just South Carolina (33), Mississippi State (38), Florida (44), Vanderbilt (54), and Kentucky (55) in the SEC.
Strength of Record: 110
It’s hard to improve in the strength of record (SOR) category after losing, especially as a near two-touchdown favorite. Auburn now has the SOR (110) in the SEC after losing to Cal. The Tigers may stay near the basement in this category even if they manage a week three victory, as New Mexico comes to the Plains on Saturday with an 0-2 record and -25 point differential.
Strength of Schedule: No. 88
One of the saving graces for Auburn, in terms of not falling too far in FPI, was the fact the Tigers lost to a somewhat quality opponent. With the ACC currently wide open, the loss to Cal has the chance to look better as the season goes on if Jaydn Ott, Fernando Mendoza, and the Golden Bears manage to cause some chaos from the pacific coast in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Still, Auburn’s strength of schedule (88) should have them sitting at 2-0 with a chance to improve to 3-0 heading into SEC play. The Tigers are unlikely to improve this ranking after week three, as a slide back down the metric is more likely.
Overall Efficiency: No. 59
Auburn took a massive hit in the overall efficiency department after the loss to Cal. The Tigers came into the contest ranked as one of the most efficient teams in the country (3), but turnovers and lack of defensive resistance caused Hugh Freeze’s team to fall over 50 spots in the ranking to No. 59.
The Tigers only had 2 less first downs and just under 50 less total yards than Cal, but turnovers and the inability to stop the Golden Bears on third down led Auburn to lose the time of possession battle 35:16 to 24:44.
Offensive Efficiency: No. 71
Auburn’s offense came into week two ranked as the most efficient unit in the country according to ESPN FPI. Now, the Tigers rank at No. 71. Four interceptions, a fumble, and just 286 yards of offense led to a miserable day on the Plains for Payton Thorne and company.
Thorne particularly had a brutal game. The senior consistently held the ball for too long in the pocket despite having open receivers towards the end of his progression. While Auburn’s offense has weapons, Saturday’s loss showed the Tigers need a capable quarterback and offensive line that can give the outside weapons a chance to make plays.
Defensive Efficiency: No. 111
Auburn’s defense was clearly the strength of the team in 2023. That has not been the case in 2024. Saturday was not easy considering the Tigers were forced into action multiple times due to offensive turnovers, but the inability for Auburn’s defense to get off the field on third down (10-19) is not a recipe for success.
Defensive lineman Keldric Faulk had a great game on his birthday, but the Tigers coverage left much to be desired.
This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Auburn’s ESPN FPI ranking falls following week two loss