As Jerry Jones insists on buying rather than selling, what reality awaits spiraling Cowboys?

As the severity of Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury began to clarify Monday, the Dallas Cowboys’ 2024 reality clarified as well.

A 3-5 franchise whose head coach’s contract is about to expire is statistically unlikely to advance to the postseason. The Cowboys seemed headed toward elimination before losing Prescott for this weekend’s NFC East contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. Facing what team owner Jerry Jones called a “likely” injured-reserve designation for Prescott, they seem even closer.

There are front offices around the NFL who would look at this combination of factors and count themselves fortunate that they received this news just before the league’s trade deadline.

They would swap a talented player or two nearing the end of his contract for assets to better position the franchise to get over the playoff hump next season.

And yet, front offices across the NFL knew that’s not how Jones, also the team’s general manager, tends to operate. In the 48 hours between Prescott’s injury and the NFL trade deadline, few expected a Dallas change of heart.

“I feel like it’s so not Jerry to sell,” an NFC executive texted Monday afternoon. “We don’t think they’ll trade.”

Jones himself was quick to confirm that Tuesday morning.

“We’re not selling,” Jones said on Dallas radio station 105.3 The Fan. “We’re buying and not selling.”

An hour later, the Cowboys had traded a 2025 fourth-round draft pick to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for receiver Jonathan Mingo and a 2025 seventh-round pick.

Perhaps Dallas will prove a better home for the 2023 second-round pick who played for three head coaches in 24 games, the Panthers’ current staff increasingly uninterested in featuring Mingo in their offense. Or perhaps the league will be correct in borderline laughing at the Cowboys for sending their fourth-round pick (offset minorly by Carolina’s seventh) for a receiver who has struggled with drops.

Either way, acquiring talent suggests a level of belief that this team’s performance does not validate. Jones’ hope, as usual, is that the best possible outcome will unfold.

“We’ve really tightened that window with our record right now, as far as our goals of getting in the playoffs and having a team that can really compete at the highest levels,” Jones said. “We’ve added to that by losing our quarterback. So we’re going to have to do something that’s a storybook-type of scenario.

“I’ve been a part of a couple of those and it can happen.”

How much did Cowboys really spend on Jonathan Mingo?

Player-for-pick trades sometimes feel too opaque to judge.

But one way to classify what the Cowboys just swapped is to examine the production of players they have drafted in the fourth round.

Since the Cowboys transitioned from their Tony Romo era to their Prescott era in 2016, they’ve drafted 12 players in the fourth round.

Six are starting across four teams this year. Prescott (2016) and Class of 2022 tight end Jake Ferguson are two of the Cowboys’ more effective contributors; Class of 2018 defensive end Dorance Armstrong and Class of 2020 center Tyler Biadasz have helped anchor the Washington Commanders’ 7-2 start. Class of 2018 tight end Dalton Schultz is in his sixth season starting overall and second with the Houston Texans. And Class of 2019 running back Tony Pollard is the Tennessee Titans’ lead running back.

Five of the six players who did not pan out spent time on injured reserve while with the Cowboys.

Even so, the 50% hit rate in the fourth round is above expectation, a second NFC executive told Yahoo Sports.

The executive was speaking more generally Tuesday evening about trades across the league, noting that acquisitions should not only be measured by the direct value received in exchange. The “replacement cost,” or cost to replace the talent of the player who left, matters, too.

The executive’s research of draft success across the NFL indicated the league hits on roughly 67% of the time, that rate dropping by 12 to 15% in each round. With that framework, which is indicative though hardly conclusive, fourth-round picks have a roughly 30% chance of panning out.

The Cowboys found multiyear starters in 50% of their picks.

So while Mingo’s measurables as a second-round pick are more favorable than most fourth-round picks the Cowboys could make and his short-term value remains cheaper than most free agents, justifying this deal may require an affirmative to the question: Is there a greater than 50% chance Mingo succeeds in Dallas?

Mingo’s shaky Carolina tenure, paired with the Cowboys’ looming uncertainty, casts reason for doubt.

What are Cowboys working with after Mingo sputtered in Carolina?

A league source with knowledge of Mingo’s Panthers stint described the Mississippi product as a versatile receiver who can block well, line up in the slot or outside, and gain yards after the catch. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound receiver ran a 4.46 40-yard dash to create a bucket of measurables that excited teams. His speed, they figured, was sufficient to get deep.

But Mingo was not consistently a deep threat — or any threat — in his year and a half with the Panthers. Only 12.9% of his targets last season were deep and only 7.7% this year. Even so, Mingo caught passes at a lower rate each year than any of his regularly targeted teammates, his 53% catch rate last year falling to 46.2% this year. Mingo’s opportunities dropped accordingly, as he was on the field for just 56% of snaps this year after 89% last.

“Bad hands and makes easy catches look tough,” the assistant coach said. “Poor body control and doesn’t have [a] great feel for route running and getting open at top of the route to create separation. Now having said that, he did get open some and wasn’t targeted

“It’s really the lack of confidence from the staff in the opportunities he’s had.”

In 24 games with 19 starts, Mingo caught 55 of 111 targets for 539 receiving yards and no touchdowns.

He dropped six passes, per Pro Football Reference. Three of his targets turned into interceptions.

The source thought finding a rhythm could inject confidence that Mingo had lost, perhaps strengthening his catch point and giving him the confidence to secure catches standing up and running rather than airborne. Mingo should benefit from improved quarterback play, if not this year then next, in Prescott. He should benefit from defenses sliding attention to Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb. But if the Cowboys move on from head coach Mike McCarthy after his contract expires in January, Mingo will be preparing to report to his fifth head coach in 20 months.

Will a new coach and play-caller believe Mingo is a fit for the system? The receiver already saw the cost a coaching regime change could take this year. And the Cowboys, by acquiring talent before determining their coach and system, spent a fourth-round pick to risk this misalignment possibility yet again. (In fairness, the Cowboys will likely have extra mid-round compensatory picks after losing several players in free agency last year.)

In the very short term, Jones will celebrate his commitment to buying rather than selling and backup quarterback Cooper Rush will enter a division contest with another potential target.

Jones can keep his storybook hopes alive another day.

“Too many times when this thing gets to look dark, I’ve seen the positives out there,” Jones said Sunday after the Cowboys’ fifth loss for the season. “Personally, I’m a long way form being dismayed about our team, about this year.

“Not dismayed. I’m concerned. Should be concerned.”