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The final two entrants into the NCAA women’s basketball tournament 64-team field will be determined Thursday, Mar. 21. The winner of a No. 11-seed matchup between Auburn and Arizona (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) will face No. 6-seed Syracuse in the first round, while No. 1-seed Iowa awaits the victor of the No. 16-seed contest between UT Martin and Holy Cross (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Auburn, Arizona bring big-time upset cred
Auburn and Arizona are two programs in a similar spot, albeit from different perspectives.
After a magical run to the national championship game in 2021, the Wildcats have yet to find their groove in the post-Aari McDonald era. This season, Arizona slid to seventh in Pac-12 standings, finishing 8-10 in conference play. Auburn also ended the regular season seventh in their conference standings. Yet, that’s the highest the Tigers have ascended in the SEC ranks since 2018-19, the last time that Auburn earned a bid to the Big Dance. After going 5-11 in SEC play last season, the Tigers improved to 8-8 this season.
Both teams also have big-win credibility. Auburn defeated LSU, the defending national champs and a No. 3 seed in this year’s tournament, in mid-January, while Arizona stunned Stanford, a No. 2 seed, in Palo Alto in February. The Wildcats also took USC, the Pac-12 Tournament champions and a No. 1 seed, to double overtime before falling short.
Auburn’s season-long steadying force, as well as the star in their upset of LSU, is grad guard Honesty Scott-Grayson. She dropped 21 points in Tigers’ signature win; for the season, she has averaged 17.4 points per game. Freshman guard Jada Williams shone for Arizona against Stanford, with the highly-regarded recruit tying her season high with 23 points. Otherwise, it’s been an up-and-down year for the freshman. The Wildcats could use another breakout game from her on the tourney stage.
Holy Cross favored to face to Iowa
UT Martin earned a backdoor berth into the tournament as the representative from the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC). While Southern Indiana won the OVC’s regular season and tournament titles, the Screaming Eagles were not eligible for the tournament because the program reclassified from Division II to Division I.
That left the OVC’s bid to UT Martin, as the Skyhawks were the runners up in the conference tournament, losing the final 81-53. However, don’t easily dismiss the Skyhawks, as this team full of freshmen and sophomores have the spunk and sharpshooting required to sneak into the 64-team field. Although UT Martin does not shoot a lot of 3s, they shot better than 36 percent from deep as a team, good for the 16th-best mark in Division I. Freshman guard Kenley McCarn, the Skyhawks’ leading scorer, converted nearly 38 percent of her 3-point attempts. If they up their volume from behind the arc, the gods of 3-point variance could smile on the Skyhawks.
But if the 3-ball does not fall for UT Martin, expect a more experienced and accomplished Holy Cross team to advance to a first-round date with Caitlin Clark and Iowa. The Crusaders won the Patriot League regular season title and, for the second season in a row, conference tournament crown. Holy Cross is a strong rebounding team, ready to grab any and all misfires from UT Martin. Sophomore guard Simone Foreman goes to glass for a team-best 8.6 boards per game. Senior guard Bronagh Power-Cassidy leads Holy Cross with 16.9 points per game. Last year, Holy Cross made the tournament as a No. 15 seed, losing to Maryland in the first round.
Game information
No. 11-seed Arizona Wildcats (17-15) vs. No. 11-seed Auburn Tigers (20-11)
When: Thursday, Mar. 21 at 7 p.m. ET
Where: Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, CT
How to watch: ESPN2
No. 16-seed UT Martin (16-16) vs. No. 16-seed Holy Cross (20-12)
When: Thursday, Mar. 21 at 9 p.m. ET
Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA
How to watch: ESPN2