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The 2021 U.S. Open will begin Thursday on the South Course at Torrey Pines. The famed municipal course in San Diego has housed the Farmers Insurance Open since 1968 and also hosted the 2008 U.S. Open, where Tiger Woods played through a stress fracture and torn ligaments in his knee to win his 14th major in a 19-hole playoff. Patrick Reed earned a dominant five-shot win at Torrey Pines at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open and now the 2018 Masters champion will hope he can carry over momentum as he pursues his second major title. Can you trust him to emerge as one of the 2021 U.S. Open sleeper picks?
Reed is listed at 25-1 in the latest 2021 U.S. Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook, but it’s 2017 Farmers Insurance Open champion and current world No. 3 Jon Rahm who is the 10-1 favorite. Meanwhile, Phil Mickelson is listed as a 50-1 long shot to complete the career grand slam at the US Open 2021 after scoring an improbable win at the PGA Championship to become the oldest major winner in history. Before locking in any 2021 U.S. Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the 2021 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up well over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the Masters in April, McClure nailed Jon Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing. McClure’s best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.
In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past several months. He also finished profitable at the 2020 U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff.
This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 U.S. Open field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard and 2021 U.S. Open expert picks.
The model’s top 2021 U.S. Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2021: DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, struggles and fails to crack the top 10. DeChambeau has been one of the hottest players on tour this season, finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2020 U.S. Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The eight-time PGA Tour champion has been explosive off the tee this season, ranking first in driving distance at 322.5 yards, but those long bombs haven’t been regularly finding the fairway. In fact, he ranks 178th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (54.63 percent). He only has one top-10 finish since March and finished outside the top 30 in the three majors since his U.S. Open win last year. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2021 U.S. Open field.
Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a massive 22-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the 2021 U.S. Open title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 24-year-old has been a professional for two years and already ascended to No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking with four PGA Tour wins.
That includes a victory at the 2020 PGA Championship and another marquee win against a loaded field at the WGC-Workday Championship earlier this season. Morikawa has quickly become the sport’s premier ball-striker, ranking first in strokes gained on approach this season (1.455) and second last season (.855). He’s been a greens in regulation machine throughout his career, and the last six U.S. Open winners have all ranked in the top five in that category.
How to make 2021 U.S. Open picks
The model is targeting four other golfers with U.S. Open odds 2021 higher than 20-1 to make a strong run at the title. Its best bets also include two massive long shots higher than 50-1 that would net any bettor an epic payday. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who will win the U.S. Open 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up well over $9,000 since the restart.
2021 U.S. Open odds
Jon Rahm 10-1
Dustin Johnson 16-1
Bryson DeChambeau 18-1
Brooks Koepka 18-1
Rory McIlroy 20-1
Jordan Spieth 20-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Justin Thomas 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 25-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Tyrrell Hatton 35-1
Webb Simpson 40-1
Shane Lowry 40-1
Daniel Berger 40-1
Will Zalatoris 40-1
Paul Casey 45-1
Louis Oosthuizen 45-1
Justin Rose 45-1
Scottie Scheffler 45-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Garrick Higgo 50-1
Cameron Smith 50-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Tommy Fleetwood 50-1
Abraham Ancer 60-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Harris English 66-1
Marc Leishman 66-1
Sung-Jae Im 66-1
Adam Scott 66-1
Jason Kokrak 70-1
Sam Burns 80-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Lee Westwood 80-1
Sergio Garcia 80-1
Max Homa 90-1
Bubba Watson 100-1
Brian Harman 100-1
Branden Grace 100-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Ryan Palmer 125-1
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Kevin Streelman 125-1
Russell Henley 125-1
Matt Wallace 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Si-Woo Kim 125-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Robert Macintyre 150-1
Sebastian Munoz 150-1
Cameron Champ 150-1
Matthew Wolff 150-1
Carlos Ortiz 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Ian Poulter 150-1
Matt Jones 150-1
Russell Henley 175-1
Francesco Molinari 175-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
Zach Johnson 200-1
Lanto Griffin 200-1
Kevin Kisner 200-1
Brendon Todd 200-1
Bernd Wiesberger 200-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Wilco Nienaber 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Martin Laird 250-1
Victor Perez 250-1
Jhonattan Vegas 250-1
Henrik Stenson 250-1
Chez Reavie 250-1
J.T. Poston 250-1
Thomas Detry 250-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 250-1
Cameron Young 250-1
Guido Migliozzi 250-1
Martin Kaymer 250-1
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
Patrick Rodgers 300-1
Jordan Smith 300-1
Sung-Hoon Kang 300-1
Bo Hoag 300-1
Wyndham Clark 300-1
Yosuke Asaji 300-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 300-1
Troy Merritt 300-1
Justin Suh 300-1
Tom Hoge 300-1
Adrian Meronk 350-1
Marcus Armitage 350-1
Ryo Ishikawa 400-1
Jimmy Walker 400-1
Peter Malnati 400-1
Edoardo Molinari 400-1
Brian Stuard 400-1
Richard Bland 400-1
Johannes Veerman 400-1
Taylor Pendrith 400-1
Greyson Sigg 400-1
John Huh 400-1
Matthew Southgate 500-1
Pierceson Coody 500-1
Sahith Theegala 500-1
Chan Kim 500-1
J.J. Spaun 500-1
Dylan Wu 500-1
Cole Hammer 500-1
Robby Shelton 500-1
Dave Coupland 500-1
Akshay Bhatia 500-1
Hayden Buckley 500-1
Thomas Aiken 500-1
Sam Ryder 500-1
Fabian Gomez 500-1
Taylor Montgomery 750-1
Ty Strafaci 750-1
Wade Ormsby 750-1
Zack Sucher 750-1
Matthias Schmid 750-1
Yosuke Asaji 1000-1
Hayden Springer 1000-1
Joe Long 1000-1
Rick Lamb 1000-1
Paul Barjon 1000-1
Luis Gagne 1000-1
Brad Kennedy 1000-1
Spencer Ralston 1000-1
Andrew Kozan 1000-1
Chris Baker 1000-1
Charles Osborne 1000-1
Luis Fernando Barco 1000-1
Rikuya Hoshino 1000-1
Dylan Meyer 1000-1
Andy Pope 1000-1
Alvaro Ortiz 1000-1
Eric Cole 1000-1
Zach Zaback 1000-1
Carson Schaake 1000-1
Michael Johnson 1500-1
Christopher Crawford 1500-1
Matthew Sharpstene 1500-1
Joe Highsmith 1500-1
Stephen Allan 2000-1
Wilson Furr 2000-1
Mario Carmona 2000-1
Roy Cootes 2000-1
Davis Shore 2000-1
Kyle Westmoreland 2000-1
James Hervol 2000-1