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On Saturday, UFC 262 takes place at Toyota Center in Houston with a battle between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler for the vacant lightweight championship sitting atop the card. The event is stacked and there’s not a single fight that’s an expected blowout, with only two fighters on the card currently listed as more than -200 favorites.
After a lengthy UFC career, Oliveira has everything clicking, with the promotion’s all-time leader in submission victories riding an eight-fight winning streak. Unlike Oliveira, who has battled in the Octagon for more than a decade to secure his first title shot, Chandler is getting his shot at gold in just his second UFC fight.
In the co-main event, Tony Ferguson looks to give his career a shot in the arm when he tries to snap a two-fight losing skid against Beneil Dariush. After a lengthy stint as the top contender in the lightweight division, many are now writing Ferguson off after back-to-back lopsided losses and Dariush wants to put the nail in Ferguson’s coffin while running his own winning streak to seven.
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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from William Hill Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 262 fight card, odds
Odds via William Hill Sportsbook
- Charles Oliveira -130 vs. Michael Chandler +110, lightweight championship
- Beneil Dariush -170 vs. Tony Ferguson +145, lightweight
- Katlyn Chookagian -140 vs. Viviane Araujo +120, women’s flyweight
- Shane Burgos -140 vs. Edson Barboza +120, featherweight
- Matt Schnell -160 vs. Rogerio Bontorin +135, flyweight
- Ronaldo Souza -120 vs. Andre Muniz +100, middleweight
- Antonina Shevchenko -130 vs. Andrea Lee +110, women’s flyweight
- Mike Grundy -125 vs. Lando Vannata +105, lightweight
- Jordan Wright -110 vs. Jamie Pickett -110, middleweight
- Gina Mazany -210 vs. Priscila Cachoeira +175, women’s flyweight
- Tucker Lutz -120 vs. Kevin Aguilar +100, featherweight
- Christos Giagos -220 vs. Sean Soriano +180, lightweight
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Matthew Coca (producer), Jack Crosby (editor), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 262 picks, predictions
| Campbell | Brookhouse | Coca | Crosby | Mormile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler vs. Oliveira | Chandler | Chandler | Oliveira | Chandler | Oliveira |
| Dariush vs. Ferguson | Dariush | Ferguson | Dariush | Ferguson | Dariush |
| Chookagian vs. Araujo | Chookagian | Chookagian | Chookagian | Chookagian | Chookagian |
| Burgos vs. Barboza | Barboza | Burgos | Barboza | Barboza | Barboza |
| Schnell vs. Bontorin | Bontorin | Schnell | Schnell | Schnell | Bontorin |
| Records to date (2021) | 16-8 | 16-8 | 16-8 | 17-7 | 13-11 |
Campbell on why Chandler will win: Oliveira has rebuilt himself into a force of nature during an impressive eight-fight win streak in the sport’s deepest division. His ability to finish fights in dramatic ways, particularly on the ground, makes him a small yet very understandable betting favorite. But did I mention the house money that Chandler appears to be playing with after blasting Dan Hooker with one punch in his UFC debut before skipping the line toward a title shot? Chandler is operating at a supreme level of confidence and has the necessary advantage in power punching to lure Oliveira into a firefight and actually finish it.
Brookhouse on why Chandler will win: Chandler’s wrestling feels like it could be the deciding factor in this fight. Oliveira isn’t likely to be able to outwrestle Chandler like he did Ferguson. And why would Chandler look to put the fight on the floor? That means this is a stand-up fight and that’s where Chandler should be able to draw Oliveira into some high-risk exchanges where he has the power to finish the fight. Of course, Chandler isn’t impervious to being stopped and Oliveira has the skills to score the finish, but the more that Chandler can force the action, the more likely it is he walks out with the championship.
Campbell on why Dariush will win: Have the wars and injuries caught up with Ferguson at age 37? Dariush is the perfect opponent to find out just that, which makes this a great piece of matchmaking. Ferguson has lost two straight in particularly one-sided fights. The aggressive Dariush, meanwhile, has won six in a row and wants to finally be considered among the lightweight elite. While Dariush isn’t a technical dynamo, he’s aggressive and hits hard, which could be enough to send Ferguson completely into the twilight of his career.
Brookhouse on why Ferguson will win: Dariush is a talented fighter who is a fixture on the second tier of the lightweight division because of his aggression and having just enough technique to thrive against everyone but the guys at the top. Unless Ferguson is completely shot, he’s a step above the guys Dariush excels against. Likewise, Dariush is a step below guys operating at the elite level like Oliveira and Justin Gaethje — and exactly the kind of guy Ferguson has always handled well. While time is catching up with Ferguson, it feels like too much is being read into his having simply come up against two guys fully clicking in career-best performances. If Ferguson still has gas in the tank, this is the kind of fight he wins.