NBA playoff picture, standings, magic numbers: Lakers stumble in LeBron James’ return; Celtics dodge a bullet

The Brooklyn Nets clinched a top-four seed Thursday night with a 130-113 win over the Pacers. The win gives Brooklyn a nine-loss lead over the No. 5 Hawks with nine games to play. If somehow they lose all nine of those games and Atlanta wins out and they end in a tie, Brooklyn has the tiebreaker. 

Oklahoma City was officially eliminated from play-in contention on Thursday after a 109-95 loss to the Pelicans. 

A quick reminder on the new play-in format: The top six seeds in each conference are in, with the final two seeds up for grabs via the new play-in tournament. In each conference, No. 7 will play No. 8, with the higher seed having to win one game while the lower seed would have to win two. The winner of that 7 vs. 8 series gets the No. 7 spot, with the loser awaiting the winner of the 9 vs. 10 play-in series to decide the No. 8 seed. 

Below is what the playoff picture looks like entering play on Saturday, May 1. Teams are listed in order of current seed along with the SportsLine projected finishing seed and different magic number scenarios. A “playoff spot” means a top-six seed. This post will continue to update for the remainder of the season as we keep track of these races down to the wire. 

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections possible.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(Current playoff teams)

1. Phoenix Suns

The Suns defeated the Jazz on Friday to assume the league’s No. 1 overall seed. The Suns have clinched a playoff berth. As you can see below, our SportsLine projections have Utah ultimately jumping back above Phoenix. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 1 seed: 9
• Magic number to clinch top-two seed: 7
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 1
• Strength of remaining schedule: 15th
• Projected seed: No. 2

2. Utah Jazz

The Jazz hold the same record (45-18) as the Suns, but Phoenix owns the tiebreaker. Utah has clinched a top-four seed thanks to the Lakers’ loss to Sacramento Friday night and is projected to still claim the No. 1 seed thanks to an easier closing schedule than the Suns. 

• Magic number to clinch top-two seed: 7
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 1
• Strength of remaining schedule: 25th
• Projected seed: No. 1

3. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are tied in the loss column with the No. 4 Nuggets, whom they play on Saturday in a game with even more ramifications in that it will decide the tiebreaker with the season series currently tied 1-1. The Clippers have clinched at least a spot in the play-in tournament. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 1
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 3
• Strength of remaining schedule: 24th
• Projected seed: No. 3

The Nuggets have gone 7-1 since Jamal Murray went down with a season-ending ACL tear. They are six games up on the No. 5 Los Angeles Lakers in the loss column and lead the season series 1-0. Denver has one game left against the Lakers. It could be in position to jump the No. 3 Clippers on Saturday when the two meet for their final head-to-head matchup of the season. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 2
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 4
• Strength of remaining schedule: 7th
• Projected seed: No. 4

5. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers lost to the Kings in LeBron James’ return Friday night and slipped even closer to the 7-8 play-in series. The Lakers are now tied with the No. 6 Mavericks in the loss column and lead the No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers by just one loss. The Lakers-Blazers season series is tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining next Friday, which will determine the tiebreaker. At No. 6, it’s the Mavericks who own the tiebreaker over the Lakers. Our SportsLine projections have the Lakers barely holding off Dallas for the No. 5. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in series: 1
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 7
• Strength of remaining schedule: 10th
• Projected seed: No. 5

Dallas is tied with the No. 5 Lakers in the loss column and owns the tiebreaker. The Mavericks are one loss ahead of the No. 7 Blazers. but it’s Portland that owns the tiebreaker. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in series: 2
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 9
• Strength of remaining schedule: 27th
• Projected seed: No. 6

(Current play-in teams)

7. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have steadied their ship with three straight wins and sit just one loss back of the No. 6 Mavericks, and Portland owns the tiebreaker. As you’ll see below, our SportsLine projections have the Blazers sticking at the No. 7 spot with a two-loss lead over No. 8 Memphis. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in series: 2
• Strength of remaining schedule: 8th
• Projected seed: No. 7

The Grizzlies lost to the Blazers on Wednesday and are now two games back of No. 7 Portland in the loss column. Memphis does own the tiebreaker over Portland, but that was a big loss in terms of moving up. The more pressing situation is now holding off the No. 9 Spurs and at least staying in the first play-in series. Entering play on Saturday, Memphis has a one-loss lead over the Spurs and owns the tiebreaker, which equates to an effective two-game lead.

• Magic number to clinch play-in series: 6
• Strength of remaining schedule: 29th
• Projected seed: No. 8

The Spurs blew a 32-point lead to the Celtics on Friday and are now just one loss up on the No. 10 Warriors, and Golden State owns the tiebreaker. San Antonio also has the toughest remaining schedule. SportsLine projections have the Spurs falling into the No. 10 seed. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in series: 6
• Strength of remaining schedule: 1st
• Projected seed: No. 10

10. Golden State Warriors

Entering play on Saturday, the Warriors have a three-loss lead over the Pelicans, which sounds relatively safe, but the caveat is the two teams have three head-to-head matchups remaining. If the Pels somehow sweep those games and both teams were to win out otherwise, New Orleans would jump the Warriors courtesy of owning the tiebreaker. The Warriors trail the No. 9 Spurs by one loss. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in series: 4
• Strength of remaining schedule: 22nd
• Projected seed: No. 9

(Clinging to play-in life)

• 11. New Orleans Pelicans – Three losses back of No. 10 Golden State
• 12. Sacramento Kings – Five losses back of No. 10 Golden State

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(Current playoff teams)

The Nets technically sit above the Sixers because they have played one more game to this point, but the two teams are tied in the loss column and the Sixers have the tiebreaker, so it’s Philly that controls its own top-seed destiny. The Nets have locked up at least a top-four seed. 

• Magic number to clinch top-three seed: 1
• Magic number to clinch top-two seed: 4
• Strength of remaining schedule: 11th
• Projected seed: No. 2

The Sixers have moved into a tie in the loss column with Brooklyn for the No. 1 seed. Since Philly owns the tiebreaker, it controls its own destiny to jump the Nets and finish with the East’s top seed. Philly owns a three-loss lead over the No. 3 Bucks, and has clinched a top-four seed with nine games to play and a nine-loss lead over the No. 5 Hawks and the tiebreaker over Atlanta in hand. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 1 seed: 9
• Magic number to clinch top-two seed: 7
• Strength of remaining schedule: 30th
• Projected seed: No. 1

3. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks hold a four-loss lead over the No. 4 Knicks, but their chances of catching Philly or Brooklyn look slim. The Bucks are three games behind Philly but do own the tiebreaker via a 3-0 season-series sweep. Milwaukee has clinched a spot in at least the play-in tournament and is two wins from clinching a top-six seed. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 2
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 4
• Strength of remaining schedule: 21st
• Projected seed: No. 3

The Knicks hold a two-loss lead over the No. 5 Hawks, but that lead is effectively three games as the Knicks own the tiebreaker. That would seem like a pretty safe lead, but our SportsLine projections have the Knicks ultimately falling below Atlanta due in part to their tough remaining schedule and Atlanta’s soft slate. The Knicks also hold a two-loss lead over the No. 6 Celtics.

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 1
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 6
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: 8
• Strength of remaining schedule: 5th
• Projected seed: No. 5

5. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have dropped three straight. They are two losses behind the No. 4 Knicks and tied in the loss column with the No. 6 Celtics. The good news is Atlanta owns the tiebreaker over Boston. Our SportsLine projections do have Atlanta jumping the Knicks for a top-four seed, but that is going to be a tough climb. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 1
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 7
• Strength of remaining schedule: 26th
• Projected seed: No. 4

The Celtics erased a 32-point deficit to beat the Spurs on Friday night behind Jayson Tatum’s 60-point performance. Had the Celtics lost that game, it would’ve fallen below No. 7 Miami and into the play-in tournament for the time being. With the win, Boston is now tied with the No. 5 Hawks in the loss column, but Atlanta holds the tiebreaker. Boston remains two losses back of the No. 4 Knicks with one head-to-head matchup remaining, so Boston still has a good amount of control over its top-four destiny. That’s the upside. The downside is the Celtics have fallen into a tie with the No. 7 Heat, whom they play twice over the season’s final week. Those two games could very well determine who secures a top-six seed and who has to battle through at least one play-in series. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 2
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 6
• Strength of remaining schedule: 28th
• Projected seed: No. 6

(Current play-in teams)

7. Miami Heat

The Heat are relatively secure to end up with at least the No. 9 seed, as they’re four losses up on the No. 10 Washington Wizards. But they obviously have their sights set on moving up to at least No. 6 and avoiding the play-in tournament altogether. As mentioned, they are tied with the No. 6 Celtics with two head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 3
• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: 7
• Strength of remaining schedule: 17th
• Projected seed: No. 7

The Hornets have lost two straight but the No. 9 Pacers have done them the favor of also losing two straight, so Charlotte’s lead remains one over Indiana with the tiebreaker in hand. The Hornets are two losses back of the No. 7 Heat and have one more head-to-head matchup with Miami remaining with the tiebreaker already in their pocket. The Hornets do not control their own destiny for a top-six seed. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 6
• Strength of remaining schedule: 23rd
• Projected seed: No. 8

The Pacers hold a one-loss lead over the No. 10 Wizards with two more head-to-head matchups remaining. Indiana is relatively safe to make the play-in tournament with a four-loss lead over No. 11 Chicago and a four-loss lead over No. 12 Toronto. 

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 7
• Strength of remaining schedule: 19th
• Projected seed: No. 9

10. Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won nine of their last 10 and hold a two-loss lead over the No. 11 Chicago Bulls, but Chicago does own the tiebreaker. The Wizards also have a three-loss lead over the No. 12 Toronto Raptors with one head-to-head remaining, but again, the Raptors own the tiebreaker. The Wizards have two games left against Indiana, which they trail by just one loss for the No. 9 seed.

• Magic number to clinch play-in spot: 7
• Strength of remaining schedule: 14th
• Projected seed: No. 10

(Outside looking in)

• 11. Chicago Bulls — Three losses back of No. 10 Washington
• 12. Toronto Raptors – Three losses back of No. 10 Washington