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Buschy McBusch Race 400
3 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
Denny Hamlin is the betting favorite to win Sunday’s race.
That’s a sentence you’ve heard a lot lately. Sunday’s race at Kansas marks the third-straight week Hamlin has been the betting favorite. And yes, Hamlin is still searching for his first win of the season despite having a whopping 87-point lead in the point standings.
There are reasons why that first win could come at Kansas. Hamlin has won two of the last three races at the track. He was victorious in the 2019 fall race and also visited victory lane in the summer 2020 race that was rescheduled because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
He’s also simply bound to turn his dominating performances into a win. Hamlin has led at least one lap in nine of the 10 races so far this season and has finished in the top five in eight of 10 races. A top-five rate like that is bound to result in a win. And that win will likely come at a track where the racing is fairly straightforward like Kansas.
Here’s your betting preview for the 11th race of the season. As always, driver odds are from BetMGM. Sunday’s race is the first afternoon spring race at the track since 2013. The last seven scheduled spring races at Kansas have been held under the lights.
The favorites
Denny Hamlin, +500
Kyle Larson, +600
Martin Truex Jr., +600
Brad Keselowski, +850
Chase Elliott, +900
Joey Logano, +900
Larson is the No. 2 favorite thanks to his win at Las Vegas and his stellar run at Atlanta that somehow didn’t result in a victory. Maybe his team will make sure his engine lasts longer than three laps this week. Truex Jr. has shown speed comparable to Hamlin on intermediate tracks so far this season and Keselowski has two Kansas wins. Logano has won three times at Kansas but all three of those wins have come in the (more important) fall race.
Good mid-tier value
Kyle Busch, +1200
Tyler Reddick, +6600
Yes, it’s a bit ridiculous to call Busch a “mid-tier” driver. But his odds are only ninth-best. He has three top-five finishes at the track over the last three seasons. Reddick has made just three Cup Series starts at Kansas but has finishes of ninth and 13th.
Don’t bet this driver
Kurt Busch, +3500
Busch simply hasn’t shown any winning speed so far this season. He’s led just three laps and has finished in the top 10 twice. Eight of Busch’s 12 top-10 finishes at Kansas have come in the last six years, but his lack of speed so far in 2021 means that another top 10 is probably the ceiling this weekend.
Looking for a longshot?
Chase Briscoe, +25000
Briscoe was 11th at Talladega on Sunday in his best finish of the season. Going to victory lane on Sunday at Kansas probably isn’t going to happen. But he has worse odds than drivers like Michael McDowell and Ross Chastain.
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