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After a torrid run early in the early spring, the pace of the PGA Tour’s schedule has started to abate. The stretch between the Masters in April and PGA Championship in May and then again from the PGA to the U.S. Open in June represents time for players to gather themselves and properly prepare for the biggest events left on the calendar.
That means fields that are not as jam-packed with superstars as what we saw from the run between the Farmers Insurance Open through the Masters, and it also means the PGA Championship might be more difficult to handicap. However, there is some value sitting out there with Kiawah and the second major of the year (and fifth of the season) just over three weeks away from its genesis.
Let’s take a look at where the odds are following the Zurich Classic and heading into this week’s Valspar Championship, where the top two players in the world (and two of the top candidates to win the PGA) will be teeing it up in one of their few post-Masters appearances.
Favorites
- Dustin Johnson: 10-1
- Justin Thomas: 12-1
- Jon Rahm: 12-1
- Bryson DeChambeau: 14-1
- Jordan Spieth: 16-1
- Brooks Koepka: 16-1
- Xander Schauffele: 16-1
- Rory McIlroy: 16-1
Try telling yourself when the year started that Jordan Spieth — who was lost in the wilderness — would have the same odds as Rory McIlroy — who won the PGA here in 2012 — for this event in May. Spieth has actually been No. 1 in the world in strokes gained per round over the last three months, and I think you could make a decent case that he should be the favorite at Kiawah. His problem will be that you cannot get away with a wild driver at Kiawah like you can some other places, though I would argue that he drove it like a stallion (Phil Mickelson’s terminology, not my own) at Augusta National. I bet he creeps into the 12-1 range by gametime at the PGA, so you can get a little value right now. McIlroy, too, will creep up. He almost always plays well at Quail Hollow (though he’s not yet officially committed) — site of next week’s Wells Fargo Championship — and he’ll get a small bump from being the defending champion on this course when the week of the tournament rolls around.
Other Favorites
- Collin Morikawa: 20-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 25-1
- Patrick Cantlay: 28-1
- Viktor Hovland: 30-1
It’s very strange to see just four guys between 20-1 and 30-1. There are more in the teens than I would have thought and then a glut of players in the 30s. Morikawa has been the best player. in the world from tee to green for three straight months, but his putting has been almost impossibly bad. The numbers are startling, even Sergio Garica-like. His 20-1 number is probably correct. I think there’s some value with Cantlay and Hovland. Both of those guys could easily move to 25-1 with any type of showing over the next three weeks, and Cantlay is somebody whose short game will play well at Kiawah. Hovland brings one of the best driving games in the world to a nearly 8,000-yard golf course.
Others
- Daniel Berger: 33-1
- Will Zalatoris: 33-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 33-1
- Tyrrell Hatton: 33-1
- Webb Simpson: 33-1
- Tony Finau: 33-1
- Patrick Reed: 35-1
- Justin Rose: 40-1
- Harris English: 40-1
- Jason Day: 40-1
- Cameron Smith: 40-1
- Scottie Scheffler: 45-1
- Joaquin Niemann: 50-1
- Louis Oosthuizen: 50-1
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 50-1
- Paul Casey: 50-1
It’s fascinating to look back on the 2012 leaderboard at Kiawah. Every type of player is represented. Adam Scott and Graeme McDowell both finished in the top 15. So did Bubba Watson and Steve Stricker. Carl Pettersson and Ben Curtis were in that group with Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy as well. When styles are so widely represented at a course in the past, I tend to lean into who’s hitting the ball best of anyone currently. Among the top 16 ball-strikers over the last three months, Finau, Casey, Scheffler, Berger and Hatton are all on this list. Sergio Garcia and Corey Conners are also both in the top 10 of that list and at 60-1 or longer to win the PGA. All of those players could pop up on leaderboards over the next few weeks and shorten their odds for the event.
Casey is especially interesting. He’s among the favorites at this week’s Valspar Championship, where he is the back-to-back champion. Another good showing there, and I could see him at 40-1 heading into the PGA. Webb Simpson and Tony Finau could (and I expect will) improve their odds after the Wells Fargo Championship next week, so there’s probably a small amount of value to be had for another week. Zalatoris, Scheffler, Casey (and maybe Smith) are the best value among this group right now.
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