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In this edition of Fact or Fluke, we’re going to look ahead to a Week 14 that is going to try some fantasy managers’ patience and skills. Six teams are on bye, and five of them (Baltimore, Washington, Indianapolis, Houston and Denver) have players we rely heavily upon. New England, the sixth, has supplied a spot starter or two in deeper leagues.
Many of us have benches full of injured or questionable players, especially coming off a rough Week 13. All of us are carrying certain players with a range of outcomes so wide that we can’t quite drop them, but we can’t quite bring ourselves to start them either most weeks. On top of that, the recent slate of games may have opened up some new opportunities in the backup running back department.
Bucky Irving and Chase Brown are in full takeover mode for their backfields, while Chris Rodriguez Jr., Ray Davis and Sincere McCormick saw an uptick in action. On the other hand, a lot of our fantasy faithful find themselves in really ugly matchups this week; Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, to name a few. Josh Jacobs and Bijan Robinson have an uphill battle at RB, so we really need some solid-with-upside options to round out our rosters this week.
We’ll go position by position to figure out who’s a safe fill-in for your Week 14 bye/injury woes.
Remember: this is the final push to the playoffs for most leagues.
QB: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Darnold is fantasy’s QB8 on the season, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game; he was started in just 33% of leagues in Week 13 (rostered in 70% of leagues). If you’re the person holding Darnold, it’s likely for this week. The Vikings get to host the Falcons this weekend, and Atlanta is the seventh-best QB matchup. Even in tougher situations (Detroit, Chicago), Darnold has been able to come through.
His two really terrible outings (Jets in Week 5 and, inexplicably, Jaguars in Week 10) are outliers. I’m with you on the PTSD from Week 10, but aside from getting blown out by the Broncos a couple of weeks ago, Atlanta has been keeping games relatively close, which should keep the Vikings motivated and Darnold tossing touchdowns.
RB: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers cannot catch a break. Everyone knew what would happen with Christian McCaffrey’s season after watching the replay a couple of times on Sunday Night Football, but for Jordan Mason to be placed on IR with a high ankle sprain?! Come on, fantasy gods.
The next man up is rookie Guerendo, who has experienced very little action this season (42 carries) but is averaging an impressive 5.9 YPC. In two games with 10 or more touches, he managed 9.9 YPC and 6.1 YPC. He should be busy against the Bears this weekend because a ground attack has been more successful against Chicago’s stout defense than an aerial one.
RB: Braelon Allen, New York Jets
This is a real desperation play; like, if you could get your hands on any of the backs who are started in 30-60% of leagues (D’Andre Swift, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Rico Dowdle, Isiah Pacheco, Nick Chubb, etc.) you do that. But that seems obvious to me, so if you’re here and you’re really desperate there are a couple reasons to like Allen this week.
One is that the Jets are not making the playoffs. Two is that Breece Hall fumbled twice in Week 13, losing one, after being questionable with a knee injury ahead of the game. There’s really no reason for the Jets to risk further injury to their superstar running back at this point in the season. Three is that Allen has been pretty reliable when called upon to take a bigger role. Finally, Miami has been a brutal passing matchup but ranks 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Bottom line: if your roster can deal with the very wide range of outcomes Allen offers, he could be a pleasant surprise come Sunday.
WR: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
Meyers ranks fourth among wide receivers in targets over the last three games. Only Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London and Malik Nabers are ahead of him in opportunities. I’ll grant that Aidan O’Connell targets are not super-coveted by fantasy managers, but Meyers is a veteran PPR hero. Rostered in a majority of leagues but started in only 41% last week, Meyers should be an easy choice for Week 14.
It’s a favorable passing matchup against the Bucs for him and Brock Bowers. This offense is basically those two guys so the volume should stay up. Meyers has 11 or more targets in three of the last four games, yielding an average of 107 receiving yards per game on 24 catches. However, he does seem to be back in no-scoring mode after breaking that mold a bit last season. Or maybe the best is yet to come …
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WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans
In case you’ve somehow missed it, Westbrook-Ikhine might have the all-time best catch-to-touchdown ratio (20:8). Coming off his two-touchdown game in Week 13, this could be construed as chasing points, something I’m loathe to do. With a catch percentage of only 52.6 and only 365 yards on the year, and an inconsistent quarterback, we’re not looking at a high-floor guy, but an upside player with a reasonable baseline. He’s seen at least five targets in each of the last three games, trailing Calvin Ridley in that department — but not by much.
He’s a big reason that Will Levis has been gaining more traction (see below). The Titans and Levis will look to finish their season strong, with Westbrook-Ikhine no doubt playing for another extension this offseason. A strong showing against a pass defense that is giving up the third-most fantasy points to opponents seems more likely than not.
TE: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rostered in over 80% of leagues but started in under 45%, Week 14 could be Otton’s return to relevancy. He enjoyed a stretch from Weeks 7-9 when he was getting double-digit targets, averaging almost 100 yards per game and scoring three times. It’s been admittedly bleak since then, but he did improve to see seven targets in Week 13.
We’re partially picking on the matchup here — the Bucs host Las Vegas — but it’s not only that. Otton has proven to be a reliable pass-catcher and end-zone target. Baker Mayfield has been more than competent in shepherding Tampa Bay toward another playoff berth this year, a trend that should continue in this favorable spot.
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QB2: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
For those in Superflex leagues with double the bye week trouble, it might be Levis time. Remember in the offseason, when he was going to make great strides and take the second-year leap in fantasy production? Sometimes we’re right, we’re just not right immediately.
Levis is quietly averaging 17.2 fantasy points over his last four games, with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio. A meeting with the defense-less Jaguars this weekend should spell more of the same fantasy goodness for Levis. Jacksonville not only gives up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but also the most fantasy points overall and the third-most real-life points. It’s as friendly a matchup as you’ll find, and I prefer him to any of Cooper Rush, Aidan O’Connell (only slightly though), Mac Jones or Bryce Young this weekend.